Member Info for mattlilly

UT 681620 at 27.90...highest of the day...5% off the bottom...

That number somehow sounds familiar from the other day...

Very good news...

lumpy buy at 27.9...now up almost 5% off the bottom at 27.85...

Late 2021...don't you read anything on here...

"A group of central banks sketched out a potential operating manual for digital cash on Thursday...Worried that the explosion of bitcoin and its ilk could weaken their control of money, policymakers from Beijing to Washington are exploring central bank digital currencies, known as CBDCs....Unlike cryptocurrencies like bitcoin that are usually run by private actors, CBDCs would be equivalent to cash, issued and backed by central banks. "

Its the gold price!

Up 2% in two hours and pushing through strong $1750 resistance to $1755...

SOLG up 3% in the last hour, despite copper being on the floor at $4.06...

My case rests...SolGOLD...its in the name...

Copper may be falling (now $4.06) but gold is up 1.2% and silver up 2.4% in just three hours...

SOLG now up on the day...

Of course you're right Orthern, but we're really only talking about the last four days...

We're not buying, but we're not selling either...we're waiting, because everything zoros can see coming down the pipe the instis can see also...so maybe they're satiated for the time being and any new ones are waiting to be convinced by news or action...

I would be far more worried if we were seeing the SP fall on higher volumes...

While I'm convinced gold is a key factor, the copper price is at its lowest for 5 months and has fallen 5% in those same four days...

And in fact you make your own argument...there is no volume because there is so little selling (429,000 shares today) so that's why the instis aren't buying because there is no volume to buy...

I can promise you, no institution is going to chase the price up just to get into what will be a long term investment, so they leave the order with a market maker to fill at a limit price for as long as it takes...

Highlights from current Mining Journal podcast:

"The minimum incentive price to get new copper out of the ground is $3.50

Goldmans have a long term 'incentivise' price of $6.80; Wood Mac $5.50...a minimum $5 to develop new projects...copper should be $5 within 6 months...

When the copper price moves the first company share prices to move are the producers...next the explorers and thats the stage we're at now...

The acquisition arms of the majors are looking at 30 year mine life...so the price of copper is less relevant than when it affects the ability to raise funds...

The focus for institutional investors is new projects, new discoveries...investors are going to focus on explorers and that's where the market play is...for the first time in a number of years the market is paying attention to good exploration stories and good discoveries...long term investors are seeing the long term copper price prospects and starting to bet on exploration projects...

Political risk is there and ESG (and sustainability) has come to the forefront in terms of investors looking for companies...

In my opinion, Solgold is as advanced on ESG as any mining company in the world...

For at least 5 years, ESG investing has been a dominant feature, with responsible funds leading the way and even Private Investors catching the bug...it may be 'woke' to some people but its here to stay and will be a major investment differentiator in my opinion...

Solgold has been a 'first mover' on this in Ecuador and, being relatively small, it is fleet of foot...

Furthermore, as it is not mining anything at the moment and its core business is centred on Ecuador, it does not carry the baggage that major miners do in such as Africa...

BHP has had to sell its oil business but it's also moving its listing to Australia to minimise ESG challenges, according to 'This is Money':

"The departure of mining giant BHP from the FTSE 100 – where it vies with Astrazeneca for top slot – to a new home in Sydney is a travesty.

It means that some UK funds will not be able to hold a dividend stock at a time of a global metals surge.

Moreover, hiding away in Oz, way out of sync with New York and London time zones, is bad for liquidity and ESG transparency.

What makes BHP’s exit particularly embarrassing is that it is effectively a capitulation to the agitation of activists Elliott Partners. "

Blackrock's Chairman Larry Fink has embraced a policy of only investing in ESG rated companies:

"Fink’s 2016 letter, penned just a month after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, made a strong connection between ESG and investing. “Over the long-term, environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues--ranging from climate change to diversity to board effectiveness--have real and quantifiable financial impacts,” he wrote.

Fink is by no means a pioneer of the ESG lexicon, nor is BlackRock a pioneer in ESG investing. Nevertheless, his much-anticipated CEO letters deserve credit as contributing to the mainstreaming of ESG in investing. Importantly, they’ve also become something of a proxy season kick-off and this year’s letter sets a discernably higher bar for climate-linked engagements ahead of annual shareholder meetings."

Franco Nevada has a AA ESG rating and it has embarked on a three year ESG partnership with Solgold, spending $150,000 a year to be match funded by Solgold.

But I'll leave the final word to McKinsey's ESG practice leader:

"All the evidence suggests that ESG is here to stay. It may change names—it was called corporate social responsibility before, and it’s associated with the rise of attention on corporate purpose. But the fundamental topic of the company’s license to operate is here to stay."

Look...many people on here are arguing with Q

Surely most of you are fed up with the 'arguments' with Q

Please for God's sake filter him...its tiresome...my quality of life is so much better now I'm not spitting coffee all over my screen...

I hope most of you may feel that my posts such as today's are clearly my own opinions which I'm always happy to be challenged with a constructive alternative view, but usually backed up by masses of facts.

For example, today's three posts "a different perspective" took two hours of research to complete...

And I STILL welcome alternative views...

So which style do you prefer guys, because even though I have Q filtered, the constant flow of arguments is still doing my head in, so how many other people, and even prospective newbies, are we completely turning off...?

Part 3...

While some on here have pooh poohed the idea of institutional buying of Solgold over the last several months, I have it on very strong authority that this is the case.

There has been a steady programme of institutional roadshows and video calls throughout the year.

Its important to understand that when we talk here of 'institutions', we are talking about smaller funds, investment funds, pension funds and similar, investing modest amounts, NOT major holders.

For example, when I floated a company on AIM in 2006 a typical 'institutional' investment was £500k with a minimum of £250k.

In 'East Coast America' as well as London, it may well now be c$250k/1m...

Here's a key perspective...

The Blackrock World Mining Trust, with $1.3 BILLION FUM has only $4.3 million invested in Solgold (0.7% of the company and 0.3% of the FUM).

Surely our collective total investment on here is more than that...?

Remember the last equity placing was substantially oversubscribed, despite only a 11% discount to the market price, at 28.7p.

Targeting $50m, SOLG accepted $73.8m.

The SP swiftly rose to 30.3p before hitting 36p only a month later.

Based on my conversations it is a racing certainty that funds unable to get their full investment will have been buying in the aftermarket, as well as ongoing 'institutional investment' and why wouldn't they at prices below 28.7p...?

So then a reasonable question would be why is the SP now 10% lower...?

Apart from my firm view that there is strong correlation between the SOLG SP and the gold price, I believe the low volumes are of significance.

In a news vacuum, MMs don't stimulate sales by putting prices up...that makes them a hostage to fortune.

I am convinced that pretty much nobody is selling.

Have any of you?

Why?

Because we are expecting a raft of news...all of it good...

So why wouldn't institutions who have bought 'the story' for a long term investment (Blackrock has had a consistent holding of 5% since April 5 2018) sustain their holdings...

So if nobody much is selling (although MMs will always panic some PIs out as prices fall), which might also explain the low volumes...and we're all waiting for news...

When it comes...and keeps coming...I could see a price explosion that could even take us to a new all time high...

Enjoy...

Part 2...

Do any of you remember this from the revised MRE in April 2020?

"The Mineral Resource is reported using a cut-off grade of 0.21% copper equivalent calculated using [copper grade (%)] + [gold grade (g/t) x 0.613] as discussed above. Metal prices used were US$3.40/lb for copper and US$1,400/oz for gold.

The Mineral Resource is considered to have reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction by underground mass mining such as block caving."

So...a mine plan based solely on block caving, copper at $3.40 and gold at $1400...

It is now clear from the Annual Report that:

Surface mining will begin in 2026

Block caving in 2030

For the first 25 years, the richest ores will be targeted in the middle of the ore body, accessed by a 'shaft' half way down...

This plan accelerates the economic effectiveness of the mine and cost savings have also been identified by, for example, the use of hydro-electric and solar power.

Excellent results are emerging at Tandayama America, so any production plant at Alpala can be used to process 'open cut' ore mined mer kilometres away. Not only does that substantially increase gross revenues for Solgold, but it also means much better economies of scale from the plant leading to a lower AISC, just as copper prices should be booming...

But note the assumed average prices for copper and gold (and silver isn't even mentioned, but elsewhere the company has assumed $16 for silver).

The AVERAGE price of each commodity over the last few years has seen a step-change:

Gold 2015/2019 c$1250;

June 2020/Sept 2021 $1815...

Copper

Aug 2013/July 2020 c$2.75

Feb 2021/Sept 2021 c$4.35

Silver

June 2015/May 2020 c$17

July 2020/Sept 2021 c$24

And when we consider discount rates and funding costs, it is a fair bet that these are much lower than when the first MRE was produced, because:

When the MRE emerged in January 2018, the assumed prices were: copper $2.80 and gold $1160

The US Treasury 10 year yield was 2.5%..its now 1.5% having been 1.25% only three months ago...

I have it on good authority that there is huge interest in funding a project like Alpala 'on the East Coast of America" (i.e. New York and Toronto).

Finally, given that the Alpala Project Committee saw the need to completely rework the PFS it is a fair bet that numbers will improve across the board...

The Company is consistently promising that it will emerge before 31 December...

In my opinion the SOLG share price has held up remarkably well. How many of us have sold shares in the last couple of months; how many have indeed bought more...?

Why? Because we know there is a steady flow of good news to come. In my opinion the only possible bad news (which is actually listed in the Annual Report risk section) is a serious equity market correction or collapse.

There is no doubt in my mind that commodities markets are being 'played'...

EVERYBODY knows that there is an impending and semi-permanent shortage of copper. There are 5 million electric cars but the global target is 2 BILLION. An electric car uses 56kg of copper and there is no substitute. Then there are the charging stations and the extra transmission lines...

And yet copper is 15% below its May 2021 high...

The world is running out of gold...only 187,000 tonnes has ever been discovered, of which only 57,000 tonnes remains underground. Some experts have estimated that there is only NINE YEARS of gold left to be mined.

The current value of all gold ever mined is c$9 trillion...total US debt is now $28 trillion...

China has banned cryptocurrencies and many experts believe that they are moving towards a gold backed yuan to challenge the US dollar hegemony...

17 central banks are working on a Fintech based digital currency.

And yet gold is 16% its all time high only a year ago...

Every 5 million electric cars need 100 million ounces of silver...

Annual silver mined in 2021 will be 848 m ounces; total demand, including investment will be 1033m...

How do you build 2 billion electric cars...you do the maths...(the answer is 40 BILLION ounces)

The CEO of a major silver miner sees triple digit silver prices

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-24/Silver-price-to-hit-high-ranges-of-triple-digits-Not-enough-on-planet-to-meet-demands-Neumeyer.html

Silver is 30% below its February high...

So thats the background...SOLG next...

I understand where you're com ing from Orthern, but I think we need to give the company a chance.

As more than one poster noted yesterday, the latest Annual Report is as good as any I've seen from any top company.

It is highly creative, drawing on the work of an internationally renowned artist.

It has everything in fit that you could wish for and expect, including frank, honest and constructive statements like I reproduced yesterday.

Solgold is already staking a claim to be an ESG leader in the mining industry; its sustainability and community programmes would stand up to any scrutiny and big miners cannot match that, especially because they have years of bad practices to unwind.

You all know that I have been highly critical of their woeful Corporate Governance in the past that culminated in Cornerstone being able to call them out...they have responded by clearing out the dead wood and putting together an excellent Board of Directors.

Their Corporate Governance standards are now market leading. You only need to look at the '10 points' and the detailed reports from all the Board sub Committees.

I was also vociferous in calling them out for overpromising and underdelivering, in a 'blizzard' of RNSs especially last year. I am in no doubt they are a big part of the reason why the share price has languished since.

Expectations were massively overhyped, among other things completely underplaying the massive practical difficulties and inevitable delays caused by COVID.

It is also now clear that the original outline PFS was unrealsitic and overlooked a much better strategy to mine ore quicker and focus on the good grades 'halfway down the pipe'.

I shall comment on that later.

Of course it is missing the news we are waiting for and there are, I believe two reasons for this:

It is a very smart move to hold up drilling results until after this Report. The market has built up an expectation and it will be like taking the cork out of the bottle over the fourth quarter IMO

Second, the new approach means that news will only be released when it is rock solid (excuse the pun), meaningful, impactful and thoroughly technically assured.

Finally, I guess you may have been alluding in part to the CEO 'saga'....

You may well have experience or knowledge of how difficult it is to secure a senior and highly visible executive appointment.

In one of my roles I was CEO of an Executive Search company. Many many things can go wrong even when you think you're there...

My worst experience was recruiting a senior Corporate Finance partner for a law firm. I nailed the candidate who was top of the list for my client. He met the client and was all ready to sign up. The client was booked on holiday the following day and by the time he got back the candidate had changed his mind. I lost a £100,000 fee...

I have never had any reason to doubt that Solgold have a top candidate lined but its a bit like signing top strikers. The candid

Dictats

Which is why I filtered him permanently weeks ago.

Unlike him I'll keep my promise...I can't be assed responding to baseless pompous dictate...

;-)

Yet another pointless argument...

People desperate for news...

Company says 2026 and then people say it's wrong...

And sucked in by Quadys ridiculous pronouncements...

When will we learn?

Move on

Silver tanking

Copper tanking

Gold tanking

SolGOLD cannot be immune...bring on the news...

In the Annual Report they state:

First open cut mining in 2026; underground 2030.

100,000 bought off book at 28.92...

MMs backfilling...?