Member Info for mattlilly

I haven't bought it sold any for yonks...still got 1.5m between us...

I'm not ramping just stating positive facts as told to me by the Co....

As an aside Colonel, in the Latam excerpt I posted, Keith said they were funded for drilling into 2022...

Bubble...that and the Uncrossing trade were puzzling...

SOLG traded up to 31p equivalent in Canada last night...29.6p right now...

Do they know something we don't know...?

ssmith...are you invested here?

If you are, why are you deramping?

BHP were released last October...

zoros...I respect you but that is arrant rubbish.

I can assure you from the horses mouth that has been steady and significant I I buying...

I'm not talking about the 'major' holders...

Switched all my FRES into POLY today at 1395...

Expect to reverse half some time soon...

If 'investors want out', why has the volume been so pitiful for the last three days, including only 149k sold today...?

You need to understand what is really going on...while several small investors have given up, institutional investors have been mopping up the shares for months, following a stream of roadshows and presentations...fact.

https://latam-investor.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/LatAm-INVESTOR-Q3-2021.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/business/economy/united-states-debt-default.html

Maria Alban was a great appointment. Keiths quotes in LatAm Report:

"That massive geological prize has already enticed the world’s majors to set up in Ecuador. And despite the problems – the last administration proved ineffective in advancing the industry – interest remains high. That’s why Dundee Precious Metals bought the Loma Larga project despite the problems. Interest is also sustained by high copper prices. Take SolGold for example. It recently completed a successful fundraising that Marshall, believes was aided by the copper price. “Clearly the rising copper price helped encourage investors”, says Marshall. We don’t get too excited about particular price moves, but the medium-term upward movement of copper prices will make it easier to finance our projects.”
The $70million raised will finance
SolGold’s regional exploration programme well into 2022, helping to discover more deposits. It shows how investor interest translates to action on the field that will help Lasso achieve his objectives. “The fundraising was two and a half times oversubscribed, which demonstrates the positive market sentiment towards the company”, says Marshall. “The key to its success was that we consulted all of our major institutional investors before raising the money. This meant they all had the chance to be involved and ensure that their stake wasn’t diluted. In fact, most of our main investors participated in the recent fundraising and we added some very strong names to our shareholder register.”
Ecuador remains a very exotic investment for most investors in the UK but with new investors piling into firms like SolGold, the country will become more well known. Hochstein believes mining will eventually make up a similar portion of GDP in Ecuador as it does currently in Chile and Peru. “Of course, it took a long time for mining to gain its position in those countries. We need the next wave of projects,
such as Alpala and Loma Larga to be developed. Mining was only 1% of GDP in 2020, but given that its only producing mines, Fruta del Norte and El Mirador, were ramping up, I think mining’s share of the Ecuadorian economy will grow in 2021. Especially as other sectors are struggling. Over the longer-term, the success of these initial projects will convince the people and politicians to support the industry more.” Ultimately Lasso will be judged on results. He can have an eloquently-worded mining policy but if no new projects are developed, investors will become more nervous about committing cash. Alpala - the 7th-largest copper project being developed anywhere on the planet – is key.
SolGold is doing its part says Marshall. “Within one year, the PFS will be finished, we will have started a definitive study and we will be onsidering initial construction work on site.” Investors will be watching to see if the new government can play its part. If Lasso can get new mines like Alpala built it will send a serious message that Ecuadorian mining is open for business.

One message that has come clear through to me is the strategy to 'monetise the assets...'

There are several ways to do this

J/V the smaller properties

Sell some of them

Sell SOLG

J/V or sell Alpala

Develop Alpala

J/V sell, sell stakes or IPO some of the major projects...

Heres one to conjure with...

Valuestone ponied up their money to drill Porvenir...

How about a Chinese J/V for Porvenir, or even an IPO of Green Rock Resources with the Chinese having a strategic stake...

Either of those approaches would monetise but more to the point it would stir up the Hornets nest of 'household names' to want to get involved big time...could even see a J/V 'string of pearls' with say BHP/SOLG on Alpala, Barrick/SOLG for Rio Amarillo, etc.

You get the picture...

So the really big news could be the Porvenir MRE to kick things off

Getting excited!!

BHP is seeing a lot of things...they've got two of the best porphyry geologists working with SOLG...

Thats the Uncrossing Trade Bubble...

And I expected it. Effectively the closing price higher than for much of the day.

498k shares bought and it almost doubled the volume for the day...

Better tomorrow...?

Its not a friend MF...picked it up off reddit...its nearly a year old...

It was dated nearly a year ago if you look..."Jan PFS..."

JiangXi Copper
Jiangxi copper is the largest copper producer in mainland China. They surprisingly entered the shareholder register in November, through a private equity fund they established called Valuestone. I can't find much info here, but it certainly throws another wildcard into the equation, and potentially puts pressure on Newcrest and BHP to make their move!
12 Nov 2020 - Jiangxi Copper Corporation (China’s largest copper producer) invests $5mln, via Valuestone, in SolGold - 32 GBp/share
13 Nov 2020 - New player arrives on SolGold register
Franco Nevada
Franco Nevada is the world’s leading gold streaming company. They provide money to gold producers in exchange for a share of their future production, sort of like a resource linked bond.
Franco Nevada aren’t a potential bidder here, but I wanted to highlight because a) FN are the crème de la crème, so I think it shows the quality of the asset and b) it means SolGold is fully funded for its feasibility study and demonstrates they have no issues raising cash – they aren’t a forced seller, so any bidder should be ready to pay up!
11 May 2020 – SolGold scores $150m in funding from Franco Nevada
Valuation
I like that the company trades at 34p, which is below what BHP (45p) and Newcrest (41p) have paid in the past. We saw massive share price rallies when BHP and Newcrest had a bidding war in 2016, and when BHP entered the company in 2018. Given a) stronger commodity prices, b) project development and c) a premium for control, I'd expect an offer price be considerably higher than current levels.
I haven’t done an NAV of the project myself, but there are 5 analysts covering the name and the consensus is it’s a multi bagger. I think its notable that JP Morgan covers the stock, pretty unusual for a bulge bracket to cover a AIM listed exploration company I think..!
I think the key is that there are some upcoming catalysts that have the potential to reflect that value in the share price: a) the upcoming PFS and b) potential bids from BHP, Newcrest or JiangXi Copper.

ends part 3

BHP Billiton is one of the world’s biggest diversified mining companies. It has a market cap of 46bln GBP, so it is nearly as big as Shell or BP.
BHP have been interested in gaining exposure to copper. They lost out vs Newcrest in 2016, but bought a stake in 2018 from Guyana Goldfields.
10 Oct 2016 - BHP Billiton and Newcrest Mining battle for SolGold stake
10 Oct 2016 - SolGold turns down BHP proposal as interest in junior grows
08 Nov 2016 - BHP Billiton expected to make another offer for stake in SolGold's Cascabel
05 Sep 2018 – BHP buys into Ecuador copper project with $35 million SolGold stake - (price 26.6GBp/share)
16 Oct 2018 – BHP doubles stake in promising Ecuador copper project (price 45GBp/share)
25 Nov 2019 - BHP Plans to Increase Its Stake in Ecuador-Focused SolGold (price 22.15GBp/share)
Latest developments on Newcrest and BHP:
You’ll see some noise that BHP and Newcrest were unhappy that Solgold snubbed them in the latest fund raising.
It’s an interesting move, which I think is strategic to a) put Solgold in a stronger bargaining position – they are fully funded, they don’t need the money and b) to demonstrate they are prepared to and have the capability to raise the money to go alone. BHP have had their hands tied and would supposedlyhave already made a bid had it not been for the standstill agreement. Newcrest's most recent statements suggest they also remain committed.
13 May 2020 - SolGold sticks it to BHP and Newcrest
11 Aug 2020 - SolGold go-it-alone strategy debated ahead of October showdown – shareholders, bankers
There has consequently been some noise around the shareholder support for Nicholas Mather, the CEO, and shareholders voted against him at the AGM. If the shareholders are unhappy with the management, I think that only makes an imminent takeover more likely.
16 Dec 20 - Copper Miner SolGold Faces Rebellion From Top Shareholders

ends part 2

The imminent bidding war could commence post PFS publication at the end of Jan
This is the fun bit. I believe a) the high profile of the companies involved here proves this is a world class opportunity and b) it also means there are a number of potential suitors with deep pockets readying to battle it out for a chance to buy out my shares at a potentially massive premium.
BHP had a standstill agreement which expired in October, and I think once the PFS is published these companies will be thinking about next steps. They aren’t able to bid yet, because their engineers will be involved in the PFS process and so they may have access to privileged information until it is published. Following the publication represents a perfect time to bid, because any buyer will want to have control of the full feasibility study which will follow.
So let me introduce the players:
Newcrest is the largest gold miner listed in Australia. Their strategy has been to gain exposure to tier 1 orebodies, which they have been executing via M&A.
Newcrest is already very committed in Ecuador, they have a local office there and they acquired a 27% stake in Lundin Gold in 2018 who own the Fruta del Norte mine. Newcrest has been increasing its investment in Lundin.
05 March 2018 - Newcrest takes 27% stake in Lundin Gold
06 Dec 2019 - Newcrest ups stake in Lundin Gold to 32%
30 Jun 2020 - Newcrest’s acquisition of Lundin Gold’s Fruta del Norte mine finance facilities
Newcrest is also a specialist in block caving, which is the mining method that will be used at Cascabel.
28 Oct 2019 - Newcrest eyes deeper mines, smaller footprint with block caving
Newcrest acquired 10% of SolGold in October 2016, and have been increasing their stake since.
26 Sep 2016 - SolGold, Newcrest and Maxit Agree to USD33m Equity Raising in SolGol
13 Oct 2016 - Newcrest beats BHP and takes 10pc of copper and gold junior Solgold(12GBp/share)
16 Jun 2017 - Transformational deal as Newcrest puts a further $40m into SolGold at significant premium (41GBp/share)
18 Dec 2018 - Newcrest lifts SolGold stake - Newcrest Mining has reaffirmed its position as SolGold’s largest shareholder by topping up its stake - (40GBp/share)
07 Jul 2020 – Newcrest Mining to explore options for its stake in SolGold: sources
14 Aug 2020 - Newcrest's Biswas bats off SolGold sale rumours
11 Nov 2020 - Newcrest rules out SolGold sale

ends part 1

'workover' not 'worker'