Member Info for mattlilly

I think you, I and Lunch can shake hands as friends Bozi.

Thanks for an honest, objective, enlightening post.

Have a great weekend...

Red...

BTW just to stimulate further posts...redknight and rougepierre are both because I've supported Man U for 65 years...

Yes...through thick and thin...with a season ticket for many years...becuase thats what real supporters do...

Thanks lunch...

Just to point out that the whole of my analysis was b based on EBITDA and cashflows...

And the discount rate is irrelevant to both...

I've been here 6 years ir so and when I make my pile I won't be discounting it back to 2016 at 8%...

I'll be counting the cash pile and wondering what the hell I'm going to do with it...

Probably invest it for an average 6% in solid FTSE stocks and live like a lord for the rest of our days...

A happy self made man...

Cheers

So I'll stop there...

And for anyone reading this later today or tomorrow, can `I suggest you goi back and read my two posts at 11.11 and 11.28.

Then you will understand why you are holding SOLG and how exciting it could get...

Or you could read the posts of the guys who implicitly or actually state that SOLG is fairly valued at 28.5p...

Your choice

Have a great weekend...

I have loads of such friends...

None of them had heard of SOLG and more than half still haven't invested...

That last point is fair Colonel...

So at £3.47p I've overestimated by 52p and it should be £295p...

However, this all assumes CGP can stand their 15% of Capex...

Absolutely not going to happen, which is why they are certain there will be a takeover.

In fact looking at their finances and cash resources, they desperately need it and cannot let it run until construction begins...

So you're right Wyloo started with 30% but they still ended up paying a 458% uplift against a bidder that started with zero%...

Oh come on Bozi...

"I plan on holding as long as is necessary."

The logical conclusion of your argument is that SOLG is fairly valued at 28.5p...

So was it fairly valued at 41p on April 12...?

The answer is yes, because any price is the consequence of supply and demand.

You very clearly propose that SOLG is only worth 28.5p to you, otherwise you wouldn't be arguing the way you are and would be buying more.

I am very clear...for me...in a finite period of time...SOLG is worth what the successful bidder is willing to pay...

My analysis suggests that it could be £1.28.5p...or £2.28.5p...or £3.47p...or £7.11p...who knows?

We'll find out when it happens.

Wyloo WAS prepared to pay $1.10...BHP was not...

Cascabel is the most buyable copper/gold Tier 1 asset on the planet.

Anyone who thinks it will survive to the next AGM independent is IMO deluding themselves.

The only questions for anyone reading this are...

What is your target exit price (you have to have one, otherwise why are you here?)

What will you do if the SP gets to that level?

What price do you think a successful bidder would have to pay?

Of course my figures are just as hypothetical as Bozi or Lunch, but...

They've been confirmed by my contact and....at least they give a basis for determining your target price.

If you use Bozi's analysis you should consider selling now and certainly not buy any more, because 28.5p is the correct value for SOLG...

Cheers mate

Your comments make it all worthwhile...

Lunchmoney, you're not Lowtrawler are you?

They've just devalued my analysis on ADVFN and then start the next post with...

"I am not an investor here and will not be investing here..."

Now THATS disingenuous...

Bozi....the funding is irrelevant unlees you are holding for the next two years...

Do you plan to hold until construction begins...?

Or to production...

Your numbers are just as hypothetical as mine, but at least mine put metrics on what Cascabel could be worth to a bidder.

Your point about the price being higher is just as relevant to why the market is putting no value whatsoever on a takeover right now...

My guess is that the SP is being held back by poor liquidity and low volumes...enabling the MMs to make a turn and keeping a cap in the SP for prospective bidders.

My analysis post a value on the prospective maximum worth of Cascabel to a bidder. This will help determine the outcome if their is a bidding war.

In my experience successful bidders ALMOST ALWAYS end up paying more than they intended for an acquisition especially if there is a bidding war.

Look at Noront.....

In May 2021 the share price was 24 cents....it had never made a profit in 6 years...

By the time the bidding war ended and Wyloo had trumped BHP it was $1.10....thats an uplift of 458%...

Do you think how Noront was going too fund their mining was relevant during this...?

The equivalent for SOLG would be 131p based on today's price...

All makes sense to me colonel...

Anyhow...time for a coffee and some glorious spring sunshine...

corporate finance...

I'm not babying the numbers...the numbers are real.

I'm babying the explanation. Not all of us have financial/corporate final experience...

Lunch

I totally accept the integrity of your intentions, but I honestly think hardly anyone on here is expecting to hold for 8 years or more...

However, those who did hold on to ATYM have made a fortune. I have a mate who invested £100,000 and now has almost £400,000...and is earning £25,000 a year from it pre tax...

"But the market needs to know how it can be funded?"

NO.

Only if 'the market' thinks there will not be a takeover bid, but...

In October 2020 SOLG was 'the hottest takeover story in town' and...

Several publications have now talked about a bid in May or June...

Do you think CGP, DGR, Newcrest or Blackrock are holding on for production...?

Lunch...mate...

"it is the financing that is key..."

Only Quady thinks this is going to production...

The financing is irrelevant...the only things that are relevant are:

have you got enough shares and...

Can you hold on until the bidding war starts...

You don't even need to hold on to be paid out by a successful bidder...just sell in the market for cash and buy yourself the car/house/boat/luxury holidays...etc. that you've always wanted...

And for the nervous among you, this is not another Sirius Mineral.

The only thing you should worry about is a 'Black Swan' event that affects all share prices.

In which case only invest what you can afford.

Anything different makes you a trader or, worse still, a gambler...

GLA

THE MARKET DOESN'T NEED TO KNOW HOW ITS FUNDED...

THE MAJORS JUST NEED TO SHELL OUT PETTY CASH TO BUY US...

Even at £1 a share its only $2.8 billion...

Thats less than 20% of BHP's cash in the bank...

Let m repeat...5 years ago...well before production...ATYM 80p...now 386p and yielding over 7% from ONE TINY MINE producing one tenth of what Alpala will be producing...

ATYM MCap £528 million...

Its not rocket science...

And on those numbers I confidently predict at least one bid before the end of May...

Lunch...

Why di you have to put on a negative spin...

The numbers I~ have put together are legitimate.

Of course discounted NAV is important for pure analysis.

The numbers I have used include actual cash being spun off at $2 BILLION a year after ramp up.

Thats serious money...

Its 250% of SOLGs current MCap.

I can assure you...sustainable cashflow is king for fund managers investing in shares...

I can't remember what the discount rate applied to the PFS is but I know that ALL the numbers are conservative.

The 10 year US Treasury rate is currently 2.85% and serious analysts say we are already in stagflation....

When you buy a car do you do a DCF before determining whether you can afford it.

My analysis is of legitimate value, because it demonstrates beyond doubt that SOLG is MASSIVELY undervalued and thats all that matters to the investors I am writing for....

Best wishes

So let me pull this all together...

The important point will be the P/NAV once all research analysts have updated their models and price forecasts.

I'm confident that SOLG will ramp up its analyst coverage now that the PFS is definitive and we may get revised estimates ranging from 55p to £1.35p or more...who knows...

Having looked again at the EBITDA in the PFS detailed figures, in the first 5+ years (after ramp-up) EBITDA can be expected to come in at $2bn, as a minimum.

Now remember that Atalaya Mining, with one small mine and a mine life of 13 years is on a P/E of 4.65; BHP 17 and ANTO 16.

So I think it is entirely reasonable to use a multiple of 5 times for SOLG.

That would mean an EV (Enterprise Value) of $10bn, equivalent to a Share Price of 347 pence.

Yes thats right, you read that correctly...

347 PENCE...and thats based on Cascabel alone...

Now do you see why this share price is bonkers... This gives an astonishing indication of potential upside over time (5 years plus).

Again for comparison, ATYM was 80p just over 5 years ago, about a year before production.

In February it hit 446p...based on one...small...mine...

So you can see why...

Quady wants Alpala to go to production

The current valuation of Solgold is insanely low

The revised PFS is so attractive...based on an ASSUMED copper price of only $3.60...some analysts are forecasting $15,000 a tonne or almost double that price well within the time frame above

Any major with depleting copper assets and/or gold assets would be playing a dangerous game by waiting too much longer before making a bid...

And if you want an idea how exciting this could get, read how Robert Friedland made himself a billionaire out of Voiseys Bay once the insane bid battle occurred...

GLA and happy as always to explain anything and have the figures challenged, but...

I have already had the above confirmed by my contact...