Member Info for mattlilly

You make a very good point about thge Lassonde curve Steve.

Ingo Hofmaier resurfaced at Firts Tin (1SN) after he left SOLG and as they were about to do an IPO...

SP was 31p immediately after and has since fallen to 6.85p despite two major tin mines coming onstream in 2024 and 2025 in Germany and Australia...if I was a Director I would be pulling my hair out...

Similarly ATYM fell to 8op about a year before commercial production and last year was 448...

And EQX had a 8 year high of 17.6 in 2020 before slumping to 4.6p in February, despite a major new mine coming onstream in 2024 which will give them 1 million ounces a year.

There are plenty of other examples and GGP might just be one of them.

So giood luck and stick around.

Cheers

That's a smart call Steve...

guymac...heres an opinion...

In that case don't bother buying...and risk missing out, like flyinghigher, dave the horse and anon...

That doesn't apply to hostile bidders addickt

If ever we needed a positive RNS to keep the momentum going it is now.

Far too often on the past the company has failed to produce news when the SP needs it to keep progressing. That is especially true now as we need to break 20p convincingly.

It occurs to me that we are unlikely to see a TR1 from any prospective bidder, because with takeover conviction in the market that would cause the price to spike, thereby forcing a higher opening bid from said buyer.

However, this wouldn't stop a prospective bidder without a position here from acquiring up to 2.9%.

Or indeed, Jiangxi increasing Valuestone's holding up to 2.9% as they have not been required to consolidate that into their own holding.

As to XIB, until there is a short holding update, there is the possibility that part of the recent strength was due to them starting to close their position. After all at 0.5% its only 15 million shares.

Gurufocus says theres no short interest.

FINRA says 4,332,883

However the FCA daily sheet shows 0.59% (or c17.7 million shares) as at 31 March, which is good...because they have to close it some time...

Nice quiet board today...

ALGOs pushed it up to 19.66 early doors and then down to 19.08...

Holding up quite nicely. RSI quite high, so we may consolidate above 19p without news. A quiet week in markets next week and closed from this Friday until Tuesday...

Mining Dealmakers Set for Year of Hot M&A After Monster Gold Bid. Takeover talk expected at Toronto’s annual PDAC mining event. Mining M&A is off to a strong start in 2023 thanks to Newmont

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/mining-dealmakers-set-for-year-of-hot-m-a-after-monster-gold-bid?leadSource=uverify%20wall

“Our preferred commodity for a 12+ month horizon is copper, but we believe the sector, in general, is poised to materially outperform the broader equity markets once again

Most investors are bullish copper for the long term, but very few believe the next bull market has begun yet.

There should be signs of this in the second half of 2023, Jefferies believes, as copper benefits from some recovery in Chinese demand, the ongoing global buildout of renewable power and growing demand for electric vehicles.

We place a relatively high probability (~50%) of copper breaking out to new highs in the second half of 2023.

Every mining cycle has major M&A. This one will be no different, in our view. Does the large-scale M&A begin in 2023? The likelihood of large M&A in mining increases if/when China recovers.

Finally, supply growth of most major mined commodities surprises to the downside once again, ie is worse than expected. The impact of supply constraints in an environment of growing demand would be higher prices."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1002114/ten-reasons-for-mining-investors-to-be-happy-about-2023-1002114.html

"Even with the exceptional deal activity seen in 2021, the mining & metals sector saw a run of M&A transactions in 2022 not seen in a decade, resulting in a grand total of 288 deals worth US$88.2 billion for the year. "

Despite lingering demand weakness, market players are seeking deals to expand their copper portfolios with the expectation that lower levels of historic investment into the supply side will offer considerable future upside (as supply contracts).

Market conditions for M&A activity have shifted significantly since Q1 2022. Moderating inflation and changes in interest rates are reducing uncertainty about the financial costs of large transactions and asset valuations. Industrial metals miners will be sensitive to any weakening of demand in 2023 as the growth slows. This has the potential to weigh on deal activity in industrial metals, as miners seek to control costs and may wait for prices to weaken before targeting acquisitions.

Other miners will seek deals to mitigate risks by securing supply or demand, access to reserves and financing for future investment. Joint ventures have become a particularly popular form of investment as a result.

Looking past the short-term, demand for metals that clear the path for the energy transition is set to march steadily higher. Firms with large portfolios of copper, nickel and lithium are likeliest to benefit. We may also see further consolidation in the gold mining sector as mid-caps seek to scale up to better capture investor interest."

https://mergers.whitecase.com/highlights/mining-ma-just-saw-its-strongest-run-in-a-decade#!

"Teck is a significant producer of copper, with four operating mines and large development projects in Canada and South America. Copper plays an important role in meeting the world’s growing demand for infrastructure and products and is a vital component in power generation and transmission, construction, clean technology and electronics. "

Thats big news addickt...Teck is $19 billion...

Thanks QB. I'm not sure thats true but I'm grateful.

I just try to keep things objective on here and, as to the takeover imminence, I simply say theres no smoke without fire...

And that fire started on October 7th.

Unfortunately, due to the incompetence of the team that was sacked, the merger took far longer than it should have, so its a slow burn so far...

But when it gets going it will burst into flame quicker than people expect.

Thats why I'm sad for flyinghigher, anon and davethehorse, because not only have they missed the recent rise, but they risk missing out on the endgame...

AIMO of course. Cheers again.

So in came the Algos...drove it up to 19.56...down to 19.20...up again to 19.46...and back again to 19.10...

But at least we're holding above 19p...

First two hours of trading only 190k shares...

Only 5 ALGOs so far and none since 8am...

Nevertheless SP holding up which is good...

Have XIB finished closing their position (if they hav ebeen...)

There was panicky demand in the last few minutes on Friday.

If we hold and consolidate above 19, augurs well...

Easter week, so quiet in the UK, but lets see...

Thanks guys...

Meanwhile...very slow this morning...mostly off book trades...

What a waste of space this board has become...

Have people got nothing better to do...?

1045464 at 19.20 yippeee...

Bid 19.10 for 300k right on the close...

Excellent week...up 24%...excellent momentum...

Bring it on!

Market bidding 18.95 for 300k

Quote 19.02/19.12...

Anything for the weekend sir...?

Remember this...?

"RE: All out again28 Mar 2023 13:20

Dangerous game being out of SOLG ATMO IMO..."

And this from wildtiger...

"All out againTue 09:19

I bought back in at 16, just sold all my shares again. The general market is still weak, I think we will retest 13-14 before any major upward moves. Good luck to all"

SPc17.10

And this from flyinhhigher...

"13p coming right up24 Mar '23

Sell now, buy at 13p"...

SPc15.80

And this...

"RE: WI23 Mar 2023 13:41

Oh dear dave...you'll be sorry mate...very sorry..."

And this from davethehorse...

"RE: WI23 Mar '23

I'm fully out for now good luck those holding..May be back if hitting 13p levels"

SP c16p

Meanwhile the SP looks like closing above 19p...bad luck chaps...(or are you derampers...?)

We're so close to a 7 month high...can we break through this resistance and close in the 20s...?

That would encourage the troops...