Juniors and copper gold...23 Mar 2023 12:56
"He said that the potential Newmont-Newcrest merger is also weighing heavily on the sector, but if it goes through, it has the potential to change the fortunes of the juniors.
“As a junior mining investor, I still hope that the mega-merger between Newmont and Newcrest goes through, maybe at a higher valuation,” he said. “It means that more money might come back into the market. Let's assume it's a $20 billion takeover, that's money that could get reinvested into the sector, that's very positive. Try to allocate $20 billion in the mining space. That's a big chunk of change that needs to find a new home, and it won't just go to the majors. Some of it might trickle down all the way to the juniors and that has me positive.”
Hoffmann believes that egos and lower valuations are keeping mining executives and their boards from pushing ahead with beneficial mergers. “If you were trading at a dollar last year you wouldn't accept a merger at 30 cents right now,” he said. “A lot of companies are sitting on that valuation gap right now, and boards are not approving terms. It just doesn't make any sense, and nobody wants to look like a loser.”
Hoffmann said that in the current environment, it’s not surprising to see interest move from precious metals into the base and battery metals.
“It's definitely trending towards the base metals right now,” he said. “Gold-copper projects are being loved by the market, it's just that optionality with copper as well. There will be a supply-demand gap at some point, with electrification and the goal of reaching carbon neutrality..."
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-03-22/Fed-has-punished-the-gold-sector-and-Musk-is-wrong-on-copper-Kai-Hoffmann.html