RE: Chart TA26 Apr 2023 13:21
Sorry mog...thanks for your post...just caught up and read the article, which actually STARTS by referencing the Goldman Sachs forecast that I posted.
It also mantions Wood Mackenzie as follows:
"Nick Pickens, research director of copper markets at Wood Mackenzie, said, “Cost pressures and the larger volumes required for an accelerated energy transition have implications for the industry incentive price.”
Under this scenario, the copper price needed to meet demand rises substantially to US$9,370/t (US$4.25/lb) in constant 2022 US dollar terms, compared to US$7,716/t (US$3.50/lb) under the base-case."
and...
"Wood Makenzie says low-carbon copper demand over the next 20 years is the equivalent to 60% of the current market size. The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) accounts for 55% of this demand – the largest single sector contributing to the rise in copper demand.
The offshore wind segment will grow sevenfold by 2040 under Wood Mackenzie’s AET-1.5 scenario, with wind power generation rising by an additional 1.0Mt of copper a year.
Solar power will also see an increase in copper demand, with additional consumption of 1.1Mt a year expected over the next 20 years under a net-zero pathway."
Which is very bullish.
So why would earthling/needalife post the only negative bit in the article rather than the reasoned case set out...
Because that's the way he/she is...
Because the article is quoting the December R&E quarterly which said:
"Little recovery in prices is forecast over the outlook period, averaging US$8,100/t in 2023 and US$7,900/t in 2024.”
But if he had troubled to read the latest detailed March 2023 R&E quarterly forecasts, he would have seen that they have revised the 2023 and 2024 prices up to $9,699 and $8619.
The current price is $8856...so that implies an average price of c$10,000 a ton for the rest of the year to hit their target...
Thats $4.44 compared rto a current $3.90
Sounds pretty bullish to me...especially set against SOLG marketing the second biggest new copper/gold prospect in the world for sale...