Member Info for MattDCFC

We’ve seen the play before Jim…

1. States a resistance number he knows it won’t reach, or if it does only for a short amount of time.

2. Claims if it breaks this resistance value consistently, then it will continue to rise to an even higher number.

3. Resistance value is inevitably not met.

4. Claims he called it right because the resistance value wasn’t met in the first place.

5. When called out about prediction, deflect, deflect, deflect.

Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.

Well said, DV2026. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

So from putting £100k in and being in for the long term, to now you’re a day trader on ASOS 😂😂😂

You make it up as you go along mate, it’s shameless stuff it really is

“Some people are so far behind in the race, that they actually believe they're leading.” - Corrado “Junior” Soprano

Ahhh so you’re a day trader on this one now?

Can’t keep up, sorry.

Hope this doesn’t drop again after a brief spike, seen that too many times before

Hot weather this weekend would have done ASOS no harm at all

Andddddd it’s gone 😊

Have a good long weekend everyone

Bit sexist there. Why would it be a bad thing if I was a woman? What a scumbag thing to say. How dispicable people on here are 😔

Just bought some clothes on ASOS, very good value for money and user friendly.

Don’t say I don’t do anything to help you out 😉

Thanks DV2026. They were meanies to me first though 😔

Have a good weekend guys

Confirmation bias in investing is the tendency to look for, believe, and remember information that supports your existing opinion about an investment — while ignoring or dismissing information that challenges it.

For example:

* You buy shares in ASOS because you believe the company is undervalued.

* After buying, you mainly read bullish forum posts, positive analyst comments, or tweets saying “smart money is accumulating.”

* Negative news — falling sales, debt concerns, weak guidance — gets brushed off as “market manipulation” or “short-term noise.”

That’s confirmation bias.

It affects almost every investor at some point because once money and emotion are involved, people naturally want to feel they made the right decision.

Common signs:

* Following only people who agree with your view

* Treating positive rumours as credible but scrutinising negative news heavily

* Constantly “moving the goalposts” for why an investment will recover

* Becoming emotionally attached to a stock

* Seeing every dip as proof you should buy more

A classic investing trap is:

1. Form a conclusion first

2. Search for evidence afterwards

Good investors try to reverse that:

1. Gather evidence first

2. Then decide if the thesis still holds

One practical way to reduce confirmation bias is to actively ask:

* “What’s the strongest argument against my position?”

* “What evidence would make me sell?”

* “If I didn’t already own this stock, would I buy it today?”

£2.43 is the ending of 2 strong days by the way.

Redemption Road, it’s a long old way for you my friend, and you’re going in the wrong direction.

“I’d rather go bust than sell at this prices”

Desperation Road, more like. Keep losing money

I’m out, but was a long term holder that lost a lot of money here, not ashamed to admit it.

I listened to a lot to people like Jamesss when I was involved, but soon came to the realisation it was all hot air. No one would challenge the nonsense so if I can stop 1 person losing anymore money here, I will.

I’m not going to stop challenging or posting btw, and I’m not Roberto, that’s a diversion tactic from Jamesss.

At least the facade of “technicals” has finally been taken down, that’s a win on my part.

Support here literally boils down to “3 rich people are involved so it must be a good thing”. 5 recommendations on that ground breaking insight. Dear Lord.

Confirmation bias in investing is when you seek out, believe, and remember information that supports your existing view of a stock—while ignoring or dismissing evidence that you might be wrong.

When things are going badly, this bias can actually get stronger.

Here’s how it typically plays out:

You buy shares in a company and believe it’s a great investment. Then the price starts falling or the business weakens. Instead of reassessing objectively, you might:

* Focus only on positive news (“analysts still say it’s undervalued”)

* Ignore red flags (declining earnings, rising debt, poor management decisions)

* Reinterpret bad news as temporary or irrelevant

* Seek opinions from people who agree with you

* Avoid looking at opposing analysis altogether

So even as the investment deteriorates, your confidence stays artificially high.

This is exactly the kind of thinking that traps people in poor investments.

The fact wealthy investors hold stakes in ASOS does not automatically make it a good investment. Big investors are wrong all the time, have different risk tolerances, different time horizons, and sometimes entirely different strategic motives from retail shareholders.

“Don’t ever sell” is also terrible investing advice. The market doesn’t reward loyalty — it rewards being right.

And the “if it was junk they wouldn’t buy more” argument is far too simplistic. Investors average down, hedge positions, protect existing interests, or make speculative bets all the time. None of that guarantees success.

At some point the discussion has to move beyond:

* who owns shares,

* conspiracy theories about “tree shaking”,

* and forum psychology

…and back to the actual fundamentals:

* Is revenue recovering?

* Are active customers growing sustainably?

* Can margins hold as growth returns?

That’s what ultimately decides where the share price goes, not whether a few wealthy people are involved.

A move to £4 by September for ASOS is possible, but I wouldn’t say it’s likely based on the current evidence.

That would roughly require the market to:

* fully buy into the turnaround story,

* believe revenue growth is returning,

* and materially rerate the company within a very short timeframe.

The issue is that while operational progress is clearly improving, the market still hasn’t seen definitive proof of:

* sustained active customer growth,

* meaningful topline recovery,

* or long-term margin durability.

For the shares to get to £4 that quickly, you’d probably need one or more of:

* a major positive trading update,

* clear evidence churn has reversed,

* a sharp sentiment squeeze,

* or credible takeover speculation gaining traction.

Could it happen? Yes — ASOS is volatile enough for large moves.

Would I base an investment case on it happening by September? No. That starts drifting away from analysis and more into momentum/speculation territory.

I agree the operational detail matters more than daily SP moves or short interest chatter.

That said, I still think you’re moving slightly too quickly from “clear improvement” to “proof of turnaround”. A lot of what you describe is textbook turnaround behaviour — tighter inventory control, faster design cycles, reduced markdown dependency, monetising assets, improving fulfilment economics. Those are all sensible and necessary changes. But the market’s hesitation is around whether those improvements translate into durable demand and sustainable scale again.

The customer metrics you quoted are definitely encouraging, especially compared to where things were heading before. But new customer growth and improving trends are not yet the same as a fully stabilised active customer base or sustained topline growth. Turnarounds often look strongest in the middle phase, where efficiencies improve quickly before growth fully proves itself.

I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to question how scalable the higher-margin model becomes if growth accelerates again. Maintaining close-to-zero markdowns is easier when volumes are lower and inventory is tightly controlled. The real stress test comes when the company tries to push harder for growth while defending those improved economics.

So I’d frame it this way:

* there is now genuine operational progress at ASOS

* the business is clearly in better shape than it was

* but the market still wants proof that this is a sustainable recovery rather than a very well-executed stabilisation phase

I do agree with you though that H2 customer/churn data is probably the most important thing to watch from here.

I don’t ignore the positives around ASOS — gross margin improvement, liquidity extension and some stabilisation in UK customer trends are all objectively better than where the company was 12–18 months ago. If those trends continue, the market will eventually reflect it.

Where I remain cautious is that most of the improvement so far still looks driven by operational tightening rather than clear evidence of durable top-line recovery. For me, the key question is whether they can improve margins and return to sustained growth without materially increasing marketing spend again.

And yes, I agree on the short interest point completely. At these levels it’s mostly forum theatre rather than a meaningful bull or bear catalyst.