Member Info for Matml74

I am not suggesting that SNG will make £18b in sales it’s market cap near up Moderna’s.

But the growth trajectory could be very similar IMO and the scenario that will play out.... ie large direct to government worldwide sales.

Doc, It appears to me with the recruitment and types of roles being advertised that SNG believes it can take the lion share of the covid revenue itself dealing directly with governments. RM as you know has also stated this is his preferred route. This would maximise shareholder returns so it is my preferred approach for the company. I hope they can fend off the sharks as long as possible whilst this scenario persists.

Moderna is a perfect example of what can be achieved here. They were starting from a slightly higher base than Synairgen with a pre covid 2019 sales revenue of $60m in 2019 and a market cap around $6billion. Their current market cap is $65b (been as high as $100b) with income in 2021 in the $15-18 billion range.

Synairgen has its suppliers in place and they are all significant companies in their own rights. It has centralised government customers with their distribution systems in place to ensure the drug gets where it is needed. If it is capable of scaling up, and I believe it is, as there are several other companies not currently official announced as suppliers (INF B manufacturers and also large Fill Finish CDMO) that have some links to SNG, then a Moderna like scenario is definitely on the cards.

It was on a volume of 500 shares from what I can see. You need to remember with OTC they are not markets on an exchange just individuals getting their broker to find them some shares from another indiviual. Pretty irrelevant in the big scheme of things.

Brysoa, WHO statement from yesterday.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-who-says-tragic-500-000-deaths-reported-since-covid-19-omicron-2757388

No monoclonals left in the toolkit unfortunately. Sotrovimab evaded by Omicron variant.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.07.479306v1

Ortex today saying shares on loan back out to 1.3m up from 945k earlier in the week.

I have no idea how accurate this data is so take it or leave it but this is the statement from Ortex about sourcing its data...

"ORTEX short interest data is sourced from the worlds largest combined pool of agent lenders, prime brokers, and broker-dealers who submit their inventory. ORTEX provides intra day and historical data for days to cover, shares on loan, utilisation rate, cost of borrow and freefloat on loan."

It is accurate with respect to short positions on other shares I own, although they are above the 0.5% reporting thresholds.

NDN has not even read the trial protocol. Ignore his comments on anything to do with trial size as he has zero idea. These are the facts!

“Success will be determined if at least one of the primary endpoints is declared statistically significant by the primary analysis. A sample size of 610 patients in total using a 1:1 randomisation ratio (305 patients per treatment arm) has been chosen to provide at least 90% power to detect a hazard ratio of 1.45 in time to hospital discharge and a hazard ratio of 1.7 in time to recovery and at least 95% power to declare statistical significance on at least one of the primary endpoints. This sample size has been calculated using a global 2-sided alpha level of 0.05 and adjusting for the Hochberg procedure to allow for multiple comparisons. This also allows for an interim analysis to assess futility after the first 300 randomised patients have completed the Day 35 visit or have withdrawn from the study.”

“The sample size calculation assumes a hospital discharge rate in the placebo treatment arm of 70% at Day 28, a recovery rate in the placebo treatment arm of 30% at Day 28 and a dropout rate of 25% over the 28-day evaluation period with time to dropout exponentially distributed.”

An update from Pew.

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2022/02/08/lifesaving-covid-medications-can-be-hard-to-come-by

635k treatments dispersed last week if Jan!!

Thanks Matterhorn. Really is a very empty basket in the hospital setting.

Dowes poor burnin Caah’s ..... said the Irish farmer

https://www.ortex.com/stocks/6944/shorts?g=7

Shares on loan down to 945k from 1.09m this time last week.

Sorry Nellie. A misunderstanding on my part. Just poured another glass unfortunately! All the best

Scots played some great rugby Andy. Building a good team there. As an Aussie it's never a bad day to watch the poms lose.

Manifesto, good luck to your good self as well, news soon and then we can look forward to the next phase for this company.

Ok I have had a few glasses of wine watching the rugby so I'll bite. If you are suggesting either of Richard Marsden or Stephen Holgate are manipulative you seriously need to go and do some more research. One man has dedicated his life to helping people with respiratory illnesses of many kinds and the other was given that man's trust to try and bring one of his finest medical ideas to market.

If the drug doesn't pass it's P3 trial it won't be because either of these men were trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes. It will be because the drug just didn't cut the mustard under the scrutiny of a P3 trial regime for the endpoints tested. I don't think anyone here seriously thinks the board of Synairgen are manipulative. If they do they shouldn't be invested.

Never been more relaxed with this share. For those of us who have been through pre P2 results and the vaccine drop and uncertainty around that, these past few months have been a walk in the park

Ghia,

This seems more up to date with Polar holdings correct and polygon at 17%. Morningstar still has Polar at 6.5%.

https://app.ortex.com/s/AIM/SNG/holders

These guys handle much of the covid drug distribution for US government orders.

https://www.amerisourcebergen.com/

Worth researching ......

Manifesto, Normally in the “not in public hands” statement of listed companies they only include institutions that have over 10% holding plus directors. Institutions below the 10% figure aren’t included.

WRT to Polar - Polar Capital LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registration number OC314700.

They are subject to 3% reporting threshold.

Doc, the protection in that scenario is that the company can issue 30 million shares. This would be at an inflated price after a successful P3. The company was talking to advisors November 2020 around scenarios like this.

Managed to get 178.75 but took a few attempts