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He is only posting the facts as he interprets them. Maybe you all disagree. But his posts are consistent and give an explanation of why the SP has dropped today. Results are just not good enough.
His previous views on the 401 results (which I agreed with at the time) have, I believe been borne out with the failure of any actual financial partnership for funding the £20m needed for a pIII trial of 401.
I reserve final judgement on the 201 trial until the fuller results are published, but my preliminary verdict is "Great drug, trial screwed up by old management".
The plan had been to recruit 50.
The big problem was the lack of suitable candidates for the trial, and the inabilty of the old management to expand the trial to other centres as promised.
The trial seems to have been well planned but very badly managed/executed. Hence taking 6+ years and we still need further pII trial.
Yuk.
Still SP of under 50p looks worth a punt.
Not quite where I was expecting.
Results confirm that the last 3 years extension of the trial has largely been a waste of time.
It has achieved (presumably similar) results to the earlier ones, with the extra information that the 8mg dose is safe (but no RNS info on the 16mg dose yet).
So the Mcap of VAL has now reached the previous high, obtained years ago when it was all a big hope with no concrete data. I hope this time £30m is a platform for further growth, rather than a speculative peak.
I thought that results of the type reported might have resulted in a little higher SP (perhaps up to 70p) but we may have to wait a couple of months before this is reached.
They have applied for authority to issue up to $1b new shares, but made no announcement yet.
I think this is what has caused the recent drop form the £11 mark. I think its too risky to buy above £9 until issue is out of the way.
The problem with predicting the upside is that the effect of paying off the debt also needs to be taken into account. How much of the debt might be converted to equity, and at what price (or new equity raised to pay off debt)?
Short term sentiment does seem to be driving this share at the moment, so good luck with entry and exit points. It's just as easy to get them wrong as right!
CCL can sell old ships, probably for little more than scrap value.
They can also "sell" bonds, but the day of reckoning will eventually come.
If they sell cruises to new customers, they will only get paultry deposits (eg 5%).
So selling new shares is the best option. But at what price? maybe $15 max (about equiv to £9.60 on UK price). More likely a bit less. $1b of new shares will keep the show on the road for almost 2 months. So perhaps the price better be more like $13 (equiv £8.30).
I can't see any positive movement on SP until the issue is out of the way. I might buy back in when SP falls some more. But its still a gamble.
Grace83
They were measuring Testosterone and PSA levels to get an idea of efficacy. I'm not aware if they measured anything else, but the analysis was based on these two.
I've no idea what they meant by stable disease. It wasn't spelt out.
Since DDDD has been mentioned a few times, I thought I'd take a look at them.
12 patients on part A of trial, and promising clinical benefit and good safety.
So on to part B with up to 4x32 patients to complete PII.
This is what ought to have happened with us at VAL with 201 in the last 2 years. However, we can still expect a Mcap well in excess of £15m (unless the results are very poor), which is why I'm not selling yet.
My point is simple. Prepare for the disappointment of indifferent results, and the SP stagnating around the 25-35p mark. Look forward to the excitment of half-decent results and its twice that much. Maybe even . . . and £1 is a giveaway.
I now fully expect to get into profit by the end of the week, but I remain wary.
Incidentally, what happened in the past does still affect the chances of success now.
I only (naively) expected the sample size they reported as the target enrollment on the clinical trials website.
What the unpublished data from 2 years ago tells me is that the results were not good enough to progress to a PIII trial. Larger doses, more patients was the remedy. Has it worked?
Will anyone fund a further trial?
Grace. A comment about Stach's Dec post.
At the end of 2019 we were assuming the target number of patients had been reached (50 anticipated in July 2019). The 2 year extension was supposed to increase the dose for a much larger cohort. Like Stach I was anticipating some good news, but by February was disillusioned by the smaller sample size, and the question why? With 50 patients and some fair efficacy, PIII seemed a reasonable bet. But not now.
By February 2020 it was confirmed the actual number of patients was only 18. We're now back down to 12. Have we wasted 2 years??
Like Stach, I fear the efficacy endpoint will prove wanting, mainly because the sample is back down to 12. In the earlier reported results, I seem to remember comments about the increase of dose from 2mg to 4mg not giving any conclusive evidence for a better response with the larger dose. Some patients fared better on the lower dose.
As a statistician, I would dearly like to work with a sample greater than 12.