Member Info for matchmade

The recent downward channel is arguably the down C wave of a Fibonacci retracement from SDX's peak at 70.5 last year. We broke up from an average 24p-ish ceiling /floor at the end of 2016, rose to 70.5, then retraced to the key Fibonacci 62% support level at 42p. John Burford does Fibonacci analysis at II. if you adapt his analysis of, say, RSA at http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/470870/blue-chip-strong-buy, SDX's major decline to 42p looks like a Wave A decline. The subsequent rise to a high of around 55 looks like a Wave B, and our decline since is a Wave C. We've reached the 62% support level again at 42p, but although this can be a key turning point, the persistent sellers could still force a decline to the 78% support level, around 35p. I really don't want to rain on anyone's parade here (I'm a holder myself), but I think this analysis is worth at least considering. Of course we all want drilling successes, long-term sales contracts and perhaps a new purchase like Circle Oil, but market sentiment is a funny thing and real-world success and willing buyers may just attract further waves of selling by motivated sellers. Fibonacci analysis can seem like voodoo to some people, but it does weirdly seem time and again to capture something about how price movements work. I also accept that strong news flows and AIM-style "buy on rumour, sell on news" are factors too . . .

I'm clueless too: this is by far my worst-performing holding over the short term, down 8% over 3 months and 16.1% over 1 month according to Trustnet. The rot set in in mid-January, and only half the drop looks to be due to the recent general market volatility. So much for commercial property diversifying and protecting my portfolio - it's made it noticeably worse! There have been no negative trading statements or other RNS's recently, unless the issuance of scrip dividend in mid-January has cheesed people off - but that was under 7 million new shares, out of a total of 933.5 million, so that doesn't sound likely. The half-yearly results and Andrew Coombs' accompanying interviews were all very positive: the German economy is doing well, and the company continues to do its thing, selling non-core assets that have been redeveloped and buying new ones that sound ripe for the Sirius treatment of changing the unit mix, freshening them up, adding lots of small units, and increasing the yield. For what it's worth, Peel Hunt reiterated their Strong Buy recommendation on 5 January, with a price target of 68p. Perhaps we've got a large and persistent seller since mid-January, though trading volume isn't noticeably up. Or has the SPD announced it's gunning for property developers, and it now controls the Finance Ministry in the new Grand Coalition? I would top up, as I've heard nothing to change my view of the effectiveness and prospects of SRE's business model, but I feel I've got enough in this sector already.