RE: Look at probably not FUD.17 Apr 2026 13:01
Madman Rob, your assumptions are wildly optimistic
1. mature onshore fields. Take a look at competitors to understand decline rates (Predator even state 35% per year)
2. Your model takes no account of SPT at >$75 oil or real Opex
3. Trinity was sold at the end of 2024 for roughly $12,000 per flowing barrel (the price of Brent when the deal was agreed was C $90). £26.4m sale price, C2,500 bopd. This should be your benchmark.
4. New wells in Trinidad carry significant risk, take a look at some of the most recent wells drilled by TXP (Cas 3,4,5 etc) didn’t produce anywhere near expected levels despite supposed known geology. Costs also came in higher than expected.
5. Scorpion geoscience give the following guidance for Snowcap 3 in their model:
-65,826 bbls produced in first year of production =180 barrels a day over the 1st year
-Decline rate 35% in first year; 20% in second year; thereafter 10% per annum reflecting the large
area of well drainage in the connected and mostly unfaulted Snowcap structure.
-Higher operating costs reflects initial trucking option
-Initial investment of US $4.5MM has a 2.9-year payback and yields
an NPV 10% of $2.738MM representing a highly attractive 44% IRR.
Clearly there could be some upside but also downside!