Member Info for massimoJ

Tried to stop myself getting involved but couldn't... Founders etc can't buy more, as they are part of a concert party and to do so would be treated as an offer under the Takeover Code - read the prospectus/proxy We're not going to get another RNS re Blackrock as they are now under 5%, so you can stop hoping for that. This will drop out of FTSE All-share imminently though so lot's of tracker funds will be selling/will have sold already in anticipation. Lastly, for those thinking that management 'need to issue another update to stop the decline', why? Why do you want management to care about the short term stock price? Sure they care the appropriate amount, given they own millions of shares. They have told you/us that they will release interims at the end of April. Because it is uncomfortable for those of you engaging in speculative day trading is no reason for management to change their course of action.

Look, I'm long big time on this and averaged down today as it was sheer madness. That said - their dividend policy is to pay out 50% of adj PAT, meaning that the dividend is going to fall from last year. It'll still yield 7%+ at least at current market cap, which means the earnings yield is 15% or so ( madness for a good founder run cash generative business), but I'd urge caution to anyone hoping for 15% yields for the next year or so. If you have the patience, 2019 should see a return to similar levels though

Guys - come on. I don't want to tell you how to think, but I have to say that implying good news from a relatively small one-day movement in the stock price is not a very sensible way to approach investing. There were a little over 27,500 shares traded today. Let's say that 2/3 of those were buys, meaning that there was a run-up in the closing price. Well that's a little over 18,000 buys at just over 50p per share, meaning that the total amount 'bet' on good news in the future today was just over £9,000. If these buys are to be indicative of good news in the pipeline we have to assume that the buyers know something that has not been announced to the market (i.e. material inside information). In my view, it would be pretty ballsy to risk trading on inside information for a gain which, even if it leads to a doubling in the amount invested, nets the buyer £9,000. And that's assuming that all the buy orders today were from one person. I'm not sure if you guys are risking meaningful sums in the markets, but if you are, I would strongly encourage you not to read too much in to the day-to-day movements of illiquid shares on low volumes.,,

Guys - come on. I don't want to tell you how to think, but I have to say that implying good news from a relatively small one-day movement in the stock price is not a very sensible way to approach investing. There were a little over 27,500 shares traded today. Let's say that 2/3 of those were buys, meaning that there was a run-up in the closing price. Well that's a little over 18,000 buys at just over 50p per share, meaning that the total amount 'bet' on good news in the future today was just over £9,000. If these buys are to be indicative of good news in the pipeline we have to assume that the buyers know something that has not been announced to the market (i.e. material inside information). In my view, it would be pretty ballsy to risk trading on inside information for a gain which, even if it leads to a doubling in the amount invested, nets the buyer £9,000. And that's assuming that all the buy orders today were from one person. I'm not sure if you guys are risking meaningful sums in the markets, but if you are, I would strongly encourage you not to read too much in to the day-to-day movements of illiquid shares on low volumes.,,

Well we know from their trading updates that their adjusted profit before tax is down 40% and that after 'exceptional items' they will be announcing a significant reported loss (i.e. net income/bottom line loss). The real risk here is the net debt to 2 x EBITDA covenant in light of the continued review of usage estimates across the whole live order book. If the review finds that UTW has overstimated usage elsewhere in their order book and this leads to repayments to other energy providers, this will be a cash expense and will impact the EBITDA figure used to assess compliance with the covenant. If we assume that EBITDA is also down 40% on last year, we get to £11m for FY17. Net debt stood at £19m at the year end, but with an additional £1m of net debt to be added after the year end. So if we assume net debt of c.£20m and EBITDA of £11m, it does not take much of a write down in usage estimates and subsequent repayments to trip the covenant on 31 Jan (next test date). (Long with significantly reduced position)