The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
so thisiia bit rough and ready as were quite a lot of erro lines, but thanks andmillys for the data. i filtered out all the records that were for 4pm so both markets were open
over all time the differential has ranged -9.1% to 13.2% in favour of sput avg 5%. in 2024 its 0.6% - 13.2% avg 7.5%. i'm an excel guy so no idea how to share this!!! so at the 4.7% on 19th its not that interesting, but maybe slightly in favour of sput.
what i am thinking is being long both in varying ratios rather than reducing my long. i can buy the canadian listed sput as well as yca. something like diso**** current 37% of the 2024 range so own 37% yca and 63% sput. i need to have a bit more of think about it.
the correlation betwen the yca price and discount diff is 62% which means yca goes up and discount i.e it underperforms. however correlation in 2024 is -15% means yca has started to outperform on way up. this might be because sput is already trading near premium and yca has been in dogs house.
does this work https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2pacx-1vrulyonune0iik1txxjpttr-arvc2nfc1tn2mcg17keld3xjmzw946tos0n2ugjh7ssr7b_y55cig-p/pub?output=xlsx
any of you guys been tracing the spread in diso**** bewteen yca and sprott? seems yca closed around 45 disocount so they are about 4% apart. that seems about the closest the diso**** has been. i own zero sprott so 100% of my physcal is in yca. just wondering if worh rebalancing as feel this discount differnce has been as wide as 10%
You are quite right ands i think there is plenty of it around. I go back to whne i first invested 4 years ago. The current $75 /lb woudl have been about the target back then so even on the original thesis i can't say it has overshot. In those 4 years a lot has changed for nuclear on the deamnd side while the supply side has not moved much. On that basis a target of somethnig north of $100 as a sustainable price seems realsitic. Will we get some big squeeze in next 2 years who knows, but seems the risks are all on that side. So I'm struggling to see as in bubble territory. Also it hasn't made it onto the main stream news and all my friends arent telling me about it. Those are also signs.
We al lknow this stuff, but more broadening of the story https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xANjHoIrZI
Just arrived on holiday and can see shRes prices significantly down but spot seems unmoved. I cant find anything from Cameco, but did they announce good production figures or somerhing. Wondering about topping up.cheers
According to the SPUT tracker that bought another 100,000 yesterdya at $105. That's assuming a runrate $104k a day managemnt fees. Interesting that the offer is improving even thoguh they probably have another 200,000 to buy
Not sure this is open to read but opinion piece on bloomberg which is first time Ive seen on here in broad investment column. Doesnt say anything we dont know, but good to track the growing "media adoption" phase.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/personal-wealth-uranium-prices-keep-going-up-but-many-still-want-it
Didnt even flicker!
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/berenberg-raises-target-price-on-yellow-cake-187tkam4fvnptuc.html?utm_source=alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2024-01-18&utm_term=news
Isnt the 1H 24 new material that they would have ot raise money to exercise the option? So if it didnt happen no fund raising no materila nothing changes? However they have a right to exercise so KAZ has ot buy spot to fulfill. Isnt the exercsieprice lined ot the spot price anyway. Maybe I misunderstood the natre of the option.
Am I being dim here.
Cash previous day 18.179mio. Captial rasie 56.165 = 74.344 take away ~0.1mio running cost and balcne on 12/1 of 62.931 imples 11.313 or $113 per lb spent? Figures all from SPROTT tracker. I must have something wrong as seems a very high price. This calcuation has bene fine previously.
i wouldnt get too excited. yca is disconnected from spot and expect diso**** to widen out to 20% as we go up. 5% move spot = 2% move in yca. in some ways a slow grind is good, but does show everyone is already long