Member Info for masplin

Hi. I'm new on this thread, but been holding YCA since inception. I looked at GCL at the time and couldn't think why I would pay a premium ofr a bunch of dodgy miners when you could just buy physical. Seems GCL had a fantastic 2022, but over 4 years they are pretty much the same performance. YCA is sitting on 12% discount (US SPUT on 2%). i was intrigued seeing GCL on a 24% discount what is going on.

You guys are familiar with this stock so is there something off in the maths of the quoted discount? Is the fund full of dodgy unlisted securities doesnt look like it), is this so weird UK IT discount thing? Similar trust to Golden Prospect which also persistently trades at 20% discount so maybe its just a thing with UK commodity trusts. .

Feels wrong ,but guess you all feel that.

Yes thats the -0.08 in my calculation. Which ever way seems to be a struggle for them to buy a meaningful amount

Isnt it 50.303-42.579-0.08/0.1=$76.44 based on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cH_2BM6T48FJDP8ShHBL9IRGFbR99ChH_SPSAWRGvt0/edit#gid=532762655

What I meant was the NAV U3O8 on https://www.sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/uranium/ is $73.50 . However I made a mistake as SPUT used to also own 300,000 lb of UF6 which seems to have disappeared and i hadn't noticed. So without that NAV is $74. apologise

Oddly value of U3O8 seems to be off around $73.50

YCA at $64.50 seems a pretty good trade ignoring all this spike stuff and just basic fundamentals. Limit downside. Best risk reward of anything I'm running.

Well this is the point if we started to move strongly then the daft retail punters have limited options to get on board other through these listed vehicles. Most of them wont even know what NAV is. so you could get a double whammy of illiquid spot market driven up by actual purchases, while the funds go to extreme premium due to idiot last wave buyers. Only strategy is stay aware of when the noise gets to high or really big daily moves like 10-20%. Typically trend ending.

Well thats if you get into some stupid catch 22 where money flows into SPUT, drives it to a premium, they then buy physical so driving price up bringing in more idiots. A slow grind to $120 sound a more sensible target, but if one day it goes wild you have to sell into it as not sustainable.

Interesting talking head interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkTnW2GRwOc. i think his point about how easy it woudl be for big investors to game the SPUT price. We have a positive underlying supply/demand story and then creation of a vehicle that actually is extremely dangerous because of the way it is structured.

Any idea what happened on the open > i was expecting YCA to be 3-4% higher and instead absolutely bombed??? Trading around 13% discount with SPUT closing at 3%. Very weird. All I can think is a bunch of very weak short term players piled in this month and got caught out.

Assume everyone seem this for what its worth

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/canaccord-genuity-raises-target-price-on-yellow-cake-yuuw8pt6mhd4zwe.html?utm_source=alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2023-10-10&utm_term=news

Well your spreadsheet implies they paid $70.09 if they received no additional cash during the day. Presumably if units outstanding doenst change then there were no new investments? This is inline with 5/10 revaluation but shares were trading at a 4.2% discount. This implies they can buy physical at the valuation of the previous day no matter what the discount the shares are trading at?

We are clearly not understanding something here. The discussion was while they traded at a discount they couldn't buy as this would make the NAV worse i.e. increase the discount., but they seem to have. Hard to tell what price they paid but sure it was above $70 and NAV is based off $68.60.

I'm pretty confused what the rules of the game are with this ETF!!!

So while they trade at a discount they cant buy physical Uranium unless they hit 10% cash? Is that the correct interpretation. Can they buy their own shares then as that is accretive to NAV? Maybe ETFs aren't allowed to do that. Yellowcake shoudl be buying back at effectively $61 if they thought taking delivery at $65.50 was a good deal.

13.5% discount

You would have thought a share buy back was on the cards as good way to spend the extra $25mio buying at less than they exercised the option for?

In theory raising money at the same price as they buy Uranium woudl make no difference to NAV if 1005 of the money raised buys uranium at that price. This time $25mio excess not reinvested woudl in theory have to buy at market price which woudl be a straight loss. so reduces NAV. Seems daft to raise more money at a discounted price unless you can buy the uranium at the same price!!!! i.e they should have only raise $100mio

Just running through the placing numbers actually they issues $25mio more shares at 550 that aren't being invested in uranium so net affect is NAV went down 2p to £6.06 @ $71.50

Doesnt make sense to buy at 550 and sell at 554 which was the open!!!! Seems Sprott are moving spot $1-$1.5 each time they try to buy 100,000lb

Am I being dim but everything overnight seems to be positive and yet YCA down 2%

1. Sprott buy 160,000lb and still has 58mio of cash (=800,000lb)

2. Spot now 71.5 bid

3. YCA exercises option to buy at $65.50 so improving NAV at current Spot and increasing discount

4. GBPUSD lower

Discount now around 9%???

I sold some when it got to by $65 target a few weeks ago and just bough it all back

maybe i missed something?