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I assume the spot price is being pushed by utilities and none of them are big enough to take out the whole company. Buying a bit doesn't help. Frustrating to be right, but also wrong!! Just have to be patient and see if this squeeze lasts into 2024 or its just a Xmas market phenomenon.
So the question is whether there is any mechanism that will close the discount? In theory the YCA managers could sell their stock of material at spot then use the proceeds to buy back the shares. However this reduces the size of the fund and they of course are reaping the benefits of the management fees. So cant imagine this happening willingly unless we get to say $150. Other alternative is some kind of shareholder action to force a dissolution, but again can't imagine this happening in the near term or even what the rules around this would be. Last option is an end user buying the company to release the uranium, but that is a pretty big amount of supply and other than the Chinese who else would have the resources.
So it seems until something sparks a fresh wave of investment from the financial community we are stuck watching the discount widen further and further. Everyone is long YCA and no one has appetite to buy more at even $75.
I assume SPUT has some mechanism to sell off their uranium or is it a similar position that rules only exist around trading at a premium and holding excess cash?
Be interested on any other thoughts as to why we cant see a 50% discount?
The Houses passed it so still has to pass congress which wont be until next year. Secondly this mostly about enriched uranium not yellow cake so different step in the process. Thirdly everyone knew this was on the cards so already in the price. i.e. one of the reasons we are up here.
Im in Fiji so at 11pm 15/11 uk time numerico showing new spot high quote of 74.50/76.25. No new SPUT units issued, but still on small premium so guess they are trying to buy bit more. Goid old YCA still on sad 10% discount. What is this same old UK stock depression!!!! SPUT should be buying YCA!!!
According to AIC fees are now 3.1%!!!! So whats the big thing with having 25% of the portfolio in NexGen? these are guys with the Rook Project which is yet to come on line so I guess there is still considerable risk of them starting to produce. This sort of makes sense to have been trading at a premium when the price was low as this was pure optionality, whereas with uranium prices here there is a risk they dont get to produce in time to enjoy the current imbalance. seems there is a major funding risk to the project. Ok well good to try and understand the dynamics. i'll keep watching. thanks
Hi. I'm new on this thread, but been holding YCA since inception. I looked at GCL at the time and couldn't think why I would pay a premium ofr a bunch of dodgy miners when you could just buy physical. Seems GCL had a fantastic 2022, but over 4 years they are pretty much the same performance. YCA is sitting on 12% discount (US SPUT on 2%). i was intrigued seeing GCL on a 24% discount what is going on.
You guys are familiar with this stock so is there something off in the maths of the quoted discount? Is the fund full of dodgy unlisted securities doesnt look like it), is this so weird UK IT discount thing? Similar trust to Golden Prospect which also persistently trades at 20% discount so maybe its just a thing with UK commodity trusts. .
Feels wrong ,but guess you all feel that.
Isnt it 50.303-42.579-0.08/0.1=$76.44 based on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cH_2BM6T48FJDP8ShHBL9IRGFbR99ChH_SPSAWRGvt0/edit#gid=532762655
What I meant was the NAV U3O8 on https://www.sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/uranium/ is $73.50 . However I made a mistake as SPUT used to also own 300,000 lb of UF6 which seems to have disappeared and i hadn't noticed. So without that NAV is $74. apologise
Well this is the point if we started to move strongly then the daft retail punters have limited options to get on board other through these listed vehicles. Most of them wont even know what NAV is. so you could get a double whammy of illiquid spot market driven up by actual purchases, while the funds go to extreme premium due to idiot last wave buyers. Only strategy is stay aware of when the noise gets to high or really big daily moves like 10-20%. Typically trend ending.
Well thats if you get into some stupid catch 22 where money flows into SPUT, drives it to a premium, they then buy physical so driving price up bringing in more idiots. A slow grind to $120 sound a more sensible target, but if one day it goes wild you have to sell into it as not sustainable.