Member Info for Mars1

New shares share dilution
151m + 27m = 178m

27m x15p = 4m div £97m (177m x 55p) = 4.1%

Dilution less than cost of a loan

Island it takes a long time to put a placing document together ODX could not afford to not raise as they would not be able to manufacture. Cost of loan is more expensive. I tried to get a free interest govt loan the banks are sharks.

Placing normally 20% discount this was 37.5% reason would be timing. ODX given a DF deadline funds had to be raised before could not risk failure. Net effect at 55p is a dilution of 5% ie £4m on value £80m. Cost of loan above £7%. Works out good deal.

The Herald said ODX would make £15 to £30m from one Mologic test (Elisa no1), there are now 4 over a 3 year contract. That had to come from ODX. At £90m NAV that is a p/e of 3 for one test ignoring food tolerance and HIV tests and RTC thrown in for free. This will have to get on a p/e footing of sorts sometime.

If design freeze just waiting for more substantive data will not be long as results are instant

The fact NI are sending these out they had to be manufactured to spec. Has the spec been shared? If it has the design freeze will not depend on the test results, alternatively it may be the last phase for df.

Trade PH yes it has even in testing they will want all the info updated to a NHS database

Trade I would expect any app from the consortium to feed the NHS app hence the connection therefore if it is sold retail NHS will get the data. Was it the connectivity they wanted

Posted earlier today is this Abingdon saying the app is now sorted as it clearly says connected, accessible and real time. Is this what we have been waiting for, to achieve sign freeze?

https://twitter.com/Abingdon_Health/status/1272867782649053190?s=20

Interesting what he did not say ie he is not there to work on the poc test just on the info it will provide.

My wife just received from the NHS an invite to do an antigen test and the second part of the test is to do an at home antibody test. She really wants to do it unfortunately she cannot take part due to a medical restriction.

Sarah-Jane Marsh Rainbow
@BWCHBoss
.../vulnerable people (we will give local systems control of this), connected data (flows back to the GP record are coming, as are localised datasets), new innovations (we are piloting and purchasing every high performing point of care test), rolling out the antibody test

From the press release 3/6 I thought it interesting that there was parallel work trying to achieve regulatory approval
“ We have conducted a small-scale study of 66 samples and results suggest the test is performing in line with design requirements. We expect to reach design freeze in June, which will allow us to move onto scale up, verification and validation activities, prior to the test being made available for manufacture.



In parallel with the above activities, we are working with Government and regulatory authorities to ensure proper approval of the test as quickly as possible.”

Could approach 70p today, few new investors, a bit of fomo. CK said in his sky interview they would commercialise over the summer months, that starts 20th June, and we know the Abingdon press release said freeze in June. Exciting.

Govt wants to build a domestic diagnostics industry cannot rely on the mainstream pharma to be interested at a reasonable price

Price to the US will be interesting given what Abbott charge

The current NAV equates to £81.3m so as a guesstimate represented by revenue earners as follows;
Very conservative view taken.
HIV poc-contract to Nigeria + Clinton Health
Food intolerance test- approved in China
Cancelling allergy tests saving £0.8m pa plus capacity to make alternative tests
Results per RNS of £0.9m+£0.8m+growth.
Say £1.7m
Mologic Elisa antibody test upto 46000 per year. Herald said earnings £15 to £30m Raw materials provided test probably subsidised by charity and national govts.
Say £22m
Mologic Elisa antigen test
Mologic lateral antigen test
Mologic lateral antibody test
Unknown
RTC antibody poc pre 26/4 100k per week capacity to be doubled. With 24/7 shifts could this be trebled? Global growth.
Difficult to say what the margin is. Although nothing to do with RTC the Mologic CEO said they can produce a test for $1.20, so say it is £4. If sold for £10 a margin of £6. So 200,000x52x£6=£62.4m

So on a very conservative view £86.1m less than pe 1 so current buys at less than current margin. Growth potential is exponential as it will be the only antibody poc test to be honest p/e will not come into it.

Raharth if the margins were in the business I am sure the bod would have kept the business going. Plenty of govt loans about with no interest. Not much point if volume not matching what is to come. The