Member Info for Markyess

I got agreement with my client to finish early, booked in with St Brides and trains all sorted.

See you there!

Great to have you here gg_man, thank you for an informative and well thought out post.

Imaginary scenario. Let's pretend that the take off partner actually feels that they'd rather own their supply chain lock stock and barrel due to the favourable economics and low market capitalisation of their prospective extraction partner.

If we were to be made an offer of 1p a share for Keras (after the Calidus demerger has completed). How would you feel? What pricing level would turn your head?

I'm almost 100% certain that there was a debt financing partner agreed for capital set up, not least with the support World Bank have in West Africa, and Togo in particular.

Stay calm and relaxed and not let any negative speculation take us over.

Isn't it 75% now? 15% SGM, 10% Togolese government....?

If the Togolese government are projecting $15.75m in public revenue:
Very roughly -
Employment Tax (17.5%) on 250 salaries at Togolese average of $12,000 per year = $525k
Assume Total Revenue @ $50m - VAT Revenues (18%) = $9m
Corporation Tax (29%) - $4m
10% Profit Share - $1m

That'd be a reasonable ball park on Togolese public revenue projections. Projecting annual Keras profits in the region of $8m / £6m

I'm not listing all my assumptions. Literally just rough projections, taking into account Togo's public revenue won't be based solely on the project's profitability.

I'd imagine their $15m also accounts for Corporation and Employment Tax Revenues, so wouldn't anticipate our slice being quite as high as that.

'Have you any idea how we get the employment numbers up to over 250 from an open pit mine?'

No idea. As intriguing at the calculations behind Togo's projected $15m p.a. in government revenues from the project.

Stop drooling at the back....

I'm sure that on top of their 10% stake in the profits, they'll have factored in Employment Tax Revenue, Corporation Tax Revenue etc. into those numbers, but still - that projects to be a far bigger annual number than I'd anticipated.

Hi PC!

The way I see it, we'll have either had the KRS news and it'll be an opportunity for a few celebratory jars. Or... We'll get given the KRS news and it'll be an opportunity for a few celebratory jars.

Oh, and there'll also be some update about some gold company, or something too.

Just waiting to hear back what hoops St Brides need me to jump through before buying my train tickets.

I know. I just thought he needed a metaphorical hug.

Normal service can resume.

Just about to email St Brides now!

I know. Its wearing and frustrating. You've been around a long time. We all know you're not a chancer/deramper.

Nah.

It's been granted. There's enough public news from the Togolese government. Its now in our hands. There'll be no material price slide. Give it a few days. I have a feeling it'll be worth the extra patience.

And let's be honest. It's a few days. We've waited far longer.

The big teases.

I reckon the permit sign off is being held until it is announced jointly with an offtake partner.

Early November. November is key.

The conversation is still not worth having. We know we're a low cost operation, that we have a lot of it (16+ years worth) and that it is graded to support silico manganese (price models in 2015 were based on supporting a ferro-manganese operation) and battery production, penetrating a market with far greater growth and sustainability. We know that we have advanced negotiations with an off-take partner, which could be gold dust for a scarce material (for both a producer and customer, to guarantee their supply chain and market.)

We also know we are no longer an explorer. We are a producer. That knocks many/most AIM listed African juniors and explorers into a ****ed hat. We have progressed beyond that investment blackhole that all explorers are until they get that production permit.

We're no longer a punt. Nowhere else I'd rather have my money.

I can't wait to read the RNS, any further speculation beforehand is pointless.

Whose life has changed the most in the 4 years we've been waiting for the Togo license to drop?

I think mine's pretty low touch... still in the same house, started a new relationship, moved in together and have since broken up. I am on to my second career change, that's probably the biggie, now a self employed business transformation consultant! I do have another nephew that came along, so I had to buy him a similar holding to his big brother. No Ferrex/Keras kiddies of my own yet, though!

I'm not sure it's much of a surprise. Last week's RNS was issued under something of duress due to the Togolese government releasing the news of the approval decree over the weekend.

Our company does need to fully review the permit before signing, sealing and delivering.

The company had to respond to the Togolese press release. Defining the timeline may have been optimistic, but it's nothing to get your knickers in a twist over.

Some of us have been waiting for a number of years. A day or two is not an issue, especially since we know that there is material progress and approval in our own hands.

Categorically no way Keras will be stepping back from its current MCap levels.

It's only going in one direction. High grade silico manganese, low cost production, partner offtake agreement lined up...

And I haven't even mentioned the takeover proposal.... :-o

We find out imminently just how profitable Keras will be, so pointless speculating.

Guaranteed supply agreements can be worth far more than any base price.

Given how much talk there's been about an offtake agreement, I'm looking forward to a post Calidus, Manganese producing Keras multi bagging heavily on current prices.

£10m MCap for a Manganese producer, able to fund its owned Nickel and Cobalt exploration projects in the side?

Boom time.

Don't think we'll be waiting too long next week for lift off.