Member Info for MarkGo

Evening all

Saudi surprising the market today a day before the Opec meeting by confirming another month's extension to their additional 1mbpd cut through September.

KSA Ministry of Energy: "Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September that can be extended or extended and deepened."

All coming together nicely as we move towards September and the return of traders from their holidays.

Happy times ahead

Theaky

I too considered selling a percentage around recent highs but did not. I guess with the benefit of hindsight we would all be millionaires. I hope and expect that recent highs will be achieved again around the end if the year and, if so and you sell, by that time you could have pocketed an additional three dividend payments.

Every cloud.........

Good morning all.

The clear disconnect from Fitch ratings downgrade over US debt from demand and supply of oil, or the performance of companies and equities for that matter, demonstrates the market manipulation in play at the moment.

This manipulation seeks to influence prices in order to mislead us poor investors by controlling the price of commodities hoping we make rash decisions due to fear or greed.

This Manipulation is illegal in most cases, but it can be difficult for weak or corrupt regulators and other funancial authorities to investigate or prove.

From organised trading across institutions, insider dealing, pump and dump or the reverse poop and scoop, releasing false statements in cahoots with media outlets, ( recent Reuters Opec disunity false statements ) only to be retracted once profits are secured, "twas ever thus". Throw into the mix the US government's attempts to depress oil and some conspiracy theorists may think Fitch's announcement , released in between the release of both sets of massive crude draw data may not be that independent. Who knows.

What assists manipulation and volatility is low volume and we are in the middle of summer trading at present. Once traders return to their desks from their summer holidays in September to rebuild their portfolios sold in may (coinciding with BP's fall from 550's ) volatility will be less easy to achieve and so with manipulation.

No one could foresee Fitch's release and I expect without this BP would still be crawling upwards as well as oil but its only another one of those hurdles to overcome before continuing the ascent.

Have a great day all.

Thank you Planit. My apologies to you and all for the errors.

Attempted multitasking and faltering memory to blame.

All the best

Finally, finally

Very perplexing Halma. Just look at oils spike in the last few mins.

Very perplexing, very frustrating, very illegal but all will be rewarded in time.

Finally, Apologies EIA crude data released today

EIA (wk ending 28 July)

Crude: -17.049M Draw Forecast - 1.367

Good evening all

Hi all

After my failed attempt to time the market correctly and make a small profit trading on results day. Then to reinvest 10% in Shell, for balance, just before today's US debt downgrade driven temporary drop, I was reminded of a common mantra in investing.

“it's about time in the markets, not timing the markets”

The illogical market reaction in equities and oil will be reversed in the days ahead. Nothing to worry about at all.

IEA crude inventories data tomorrow ( 20.30 UK time ) and Opec+ meeting on Friday.

Hi Spights

Informative post . Thanks.

Biden - Opec

After lobbying Opec and dumping 200mb from the SPR over the past two years to manipulate and keep oil depressed, the US energy department has just pulled back their offer to buy 6 million barrels in August to replenish the SPR citing " market conditions " .

It looks like the commitment to buy back (at $70) is now dead. I would not rule out further SPR dumps if Congress can be circumvented and prices continue to rise.

Either way, onwards, over hurdles and upwards . US debt downgrade overreaction blip gone in a day or two.

Have a great day

Just to add and maybe assist on the discussion on break even point...

Moving to our disciplined financial frame. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend. This is underpinned by an average cash balance point of around $40 per barrel through 2025. Our second priority is to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating, and we intend to allocate 40% of 2022 surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.

Third and fourth, we will continue to invest with discipline into the transition and resilient hydrocarbons. Our capital expenditure guidance for 2022, including inorganics, is now expected to be around $15.5 billion if the acquisition of Archaea Energy completes before year-end. And our medium-term guidance is unchanged at $14 billion to $16 billion per annum.

Fifth, we remain committed to returning 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow through share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. Against the authority granted at BP's 2022 AGM to repurchase up to 1.95 billion shares, BP has repurchased 677 million shares at the 31st of October. And with third quarter surplus cash flow of $3.5 billion, we intend to execute a buyback of $2.5 billion prior to reporting fourth quarter results. This brings total announced share buybacks from 2022 surplus cash flow to $8.5 billion, equivalent to 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow year-to-date. In setting the buyback, the Board will continue to take into account factors, including the cumulative level of -- and outlook for surplus cash flow.

Afternoon sll

My understanding is that after hygrading their hydrocarbons, break even is currently $40pb.

At $60 pb BP can carry out their financial framework as follows.......

With a continuing commitment to its financial frame, including strict capital discipline, bp believes that – at an oil price of around $60 per barrel and subject to board discretion – it has the capacity to increase its dividend per ordinary share by around 4% a year through 2025. In addition, with its commitment to returning at least 60% of surplus cash flow through share buybacks – subject to retaining a strong investment grade credit rating – bp also expects to deliver around $4 billion buybacks a year at $60 a barrel through to 2025 – with upside in higher price environments....

Lots of answer to questions available on the link below.

BP p.l.c. (BP) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

BP p.l.c. (BP)

Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call

November 1, 2022 05:00 AM ET

https://conferencecalltranscripts.com/summary/?id=442323&pr=true

Morning all

BP expects a return on investment of at least 15% on bioenergy including biogas as well as from combining EV charging with their retail stores. Hydrogen is seen bringing in 10% returns, with renewables such as wind at a 6 to 8% as well as higher returns from high grading their hydrocarbons.

So you have to look at the big picture. They are planning for integration utilising their own renewable energy as well to feed into other sectors. Neutrons provided by wind will by required for the production of their hydrogen energy as well as for trading.

morning meoryou. Greats posts from you on this and the paper market. The Financial market have had their day for now. Any oil bears left have been burned and demand is now well established. The tail is now wagging the dog in so far as the size of the physical and the 30 times bigger paper oil market and I expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.

BP holding up well this morning. Although US open may alter this with their debt downgrade.

On a personal note, although our cunning plan did not work on results day I used the opportunity to move some funds over to Shell for balance. 70/30 in BP favour.

Have a great day all.

Looney's overpriced defence.

BP CEO denies overpaying for €6.8B German offshore wind leases

Aug. 01, 2023 2:34 PM ETBP p.l.c.

BP (NYSE:BP) CEO Bernard Looney dismissed criticism Tuesday that the company overpaid for offshore wind leases in Germany, saying the project will be profitable because of a long-term shortage of green power in the region.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Looney said BP's (BP) own need for power in Germany will rise to 5-10 GW, illustrating how "there's going to be a shortage of green electricity in the 2030s."

BP (BP) was one of the winners in Germany's biggest ever offshore wind auction last month, bidding €6.8B to win the rights to construct 4 GW of capacity in the North Sea, which would nearly double its global pipeline of projects to 9.2 GW.

The company is "very confident" in achieving a 6%-8% return on equity, a range that is "sacrosanct" when assessing the viability of offshore wind projects, Looney said.

While BP (BP) needs more green power for its own European businesses - including its refineries, electric vehicle charging network, planned hydrogen production and trading - Looney said its Gulf of Mexico needs are different despite its big offshore oil and gas footprint there, suggesting the company will not participate in the first U.S. offshore wind auction in the Gulf of Mexico.

Looney also made the case for strong oil prices supported by growing demand, greater OPEC+ discipline and slowing U.S. production growth in the short and medium term.

BP (BP) -0.9% after reporting lower than forecast Q2 earnings but raising its dividend and expanding its stock buyback program.

API Inventory data

Crude -15.4 million vs. -900,000 expected

Gasoline -1.68 million

Distillates -512,000

Cushing -1.76 million

Massive draw. Pressure has been building over recent weeks and no amount of manipulation to hold oil down was going to last. I believe this is just the beginning of a sustained period of elevated oil and a feed through to equities will definitely follow in the coming months.

Presentation and webcast information

Https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-reporting-and-presentations/quarterly-results-and-webcast.html?utm_campaign=quarterly_results&utm_medium=email&utm_source=dotd&dm_i=1PGC,8D25X,5YJZN7,YGQLU,1

Good morning Spights

Crazy. Top and bottom massive miss on estimates. Poor results and a rise. Although the day is young.

Again, happy and confused to be wrong on the opening price.

Morning Tinker

Scratching my head on the rise but pleasantly surprised. As you say " time will tell "

Well done Halma

I happy to have been proven wrong. I did not see a rise this morning in those results

Eating my words

Awful

Massively missed estimates. Will drop at 8 but by how much. ? Could be a bad bad day

BP p.l.c. misses Q2 top and bottom line estimates; initiates Q3 and reaffirms FY23 outlook

Aug. 01, 2023 2:29 AM ETBP p.l.c. (BP), BPAQFBy: Meghavi Singh, SA News Editor

BP p.l.c. press release (NYSE:BP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPADS of $0.89 misses by $0.27.

Revenue of $48.54 billion (-28.5% Y/Y) misses by $6.25B.

Underlying RC profit $2.6 billion; Operating cash flow $6.3 billion.

10% increase in resilient dividend to 7.270 cents per ordinary share; further $1.5 billion share buyback announced.

Capital expenditure in the second quarter was $4.3 billion including $1.1 billion for the acquisition of TravelCenters of America, net of adjustments. bp continues to expect capital expenditure, including inorganic capital expenditure, of $16-18 billion in 2023.

Outlook: 3Q23 guidance: Looking ahead, bp expects third-quarter 2023 reported upstream production to be broadly flat compared to second quarter 2023. Within this, bp expects production from oil production & operations to be lower and gas & low carbon energy to be higher, including the effects of seasonal maintenance in higher margin regions offset by major project delivery.

In its customers business, bp expects seasonally higher volumes. In refining, bp expects a lower level of turnaround and maintenance activity compared to the second quarter.

2023 guidance: bp now expects both reported and underlying upstream production to be higher compared with 2022. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be slightly lower.

bp continues to expect the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be in a range of $1.1-1.3 billion for 2023.

bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly above 2022.

bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2023 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.

bp continues to expect divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2023 and continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.

bp continues to expect Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments for the year to be around $1.3 billion pre-tax including the $1.2 billion pre-tax payment made during the second quarter.

bp continues to expect capital expenditure of $16-18 billion in 2023 including inorganic capital expenditure.

For 2023 bp continues to intend to allocate 40% of surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.

For 2023 and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, bp remains committed to using 60% of surplus cash flow for share buybacks.

bp continues to expect to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum, at the lower e