Member Info for MarkGo

Good morning Exploration

Thanks for your post and background. Your experience as an investor in BP of nearly half a century trumps my three years and I respect your opinion although clearly I see the future direction of the company differently to you.

BP will remain a super major for decades to come but the world is slowly changing regarding energy. It makes total sense to capitalise on these opportunities. It's not a matter of hydrocarbons or renewables, it's both. The profits of hydrocarbons with their highs and lows in addition to bioenergy, convenience, EV charging; hydrogen and renewables returns.

I wonder what the market cap would be of BP with an Orsted 'like company add on ?

Have a great weekend

The return of ' EVERGRANDE '

A slow burning Chinese property company woe story for the markets to probably over react to.

Property giant Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US as the real estate crisis in China deepens.

It will allow the heavily-indebted company to protect its assets in the US as it works on a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.

Evergrande defaulted on its huge debts in 2021, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66540785

Another possible reason for a totally connected oil and gas company's share price to fall...

Good morning Spights and all

Citigroup's contrairian advice to traders will not age well in my opinion.

In the world of financial ' experts ' the right of brokers and institutional analysts to throw out advice, price targets etc, like confetti, has no responsibility for accuracy and no price to pay for inaccuracy. Its all part of the industry game and justification to their attempt to transfer your hard earned cash to them via fees and charge for advisory services to "clients' with 100% no money back guarantee.

In comparison and on the same day.....

ING Bank

17th August 2023

Tightness takes hold of the oil market

The last month has seen the oil market convincingly break out of the range it has been stuck in since early May. Tightening fundamentals and prospects for a softer-than-expected landing for the US economy have pushed the market higher. Constructive fundamentals should mean more strength in the months ahead

Oil prices still have more upside

While the oil market has seen quite a bit of strength in recent weeks on the back of tightening in the physical market, we believe that there is still room for the market to move higher. Our balance sheet suggests that the oil market will continue to tighten as we move through the second half of the year with a deficit in the region of 2MMbbls/d.

We have left our forecasts for the remainder of the year unchanged. We still expect ICE Brent to average US$86/bbl over 3Q23 and US$92/bbl over 4Q23.

Our balance shows that the market will remain in deficit over 2024. However, this deficit is heavily skewed towards the second half of 2024. In fact, we see a small surplus in 1Q24, which suggests that prices could pull back early next year, before moving higher once again. While we still expect Brent to average US$90/bbl over 2024, we have revised the profile.

The assumption behind our 2024 forecasts is that OPEC+ sticks to its planned production targets, whilst the 1.66MMbbls/d of additional voluntary cuts from a handful of OPEC+ producers also continue through 2024.

A rest my case.

Have a great Friday

Afternoon Spights and all.

In the not too distant past, no amount of positive economic news would support the price of oil and the bears were in full control. We are now witnessing a pivot. Manipulation will always be in play but it seems that shorting oil is becoming risky and the number of traders participating in shorting less. This is also reflected in the higher lows each recent oil dip.

After consecutive weeks of positive reports on demand and supply, in my opinion, it would not take too much to spike oil upwards, such as the announcement of a Chinese economic stimulus package, this could happen anytime. Even without such an announcement the consecutive weeks of demand data and reduction in global inventories will inevitably push oil higher.

As you say, onwards and upwards.

All the best

Hi Exploration

Further to your analysis of BP, may I enquire if you are an investor in BP and if you have researched BP's business and transition strategy yourself ?

I would hazard a guess that you have not from your post that demostrates a limited understanding of the business now and into the future.

Far from ' game over ' BP's long term transition and integration strategy, although at an early stage, makes sound sense from an investment and future energy requirement standpoint. This will take some time for financial analysts and the markets to be convinced. You only have to look at the markets today to see how short term views rule.

ROI on one growth engine has already commenced. EV charging is profitable now in some regions and the investment is being stripped out and returned to the balance sheet.

BP will remain an O&G company for many decades to come together with all arms of trading and upstream and downstream. They are high grading the hydrocarbon business to maximise low cost - high return production and only divesting the opposite. BP also aims to increase investment into resilient high-quality oil and gas projects by around $8 - 10 billion by 2030.

BP's transition is far from " a few wind farms ". As well as hydrocarbons, they have five ' growth engines ' bioenergy, convenience, EV charging; hydrogen and renewables with expected returns of greater than 15% from bioenergy, and from convenience and EV charging combined, and double digit returns from hydrogen.

It expects 6-8% unlevered returns in renewables and in addition BP will require the power from its offshore wind to fed into there own hydrogen production.

That's the bigger picture.

I could go on but I respectfully suggest you do your own research and inform yourself on BP.

Have a great day.

Morning all

Sentiment and low volumes are causing the current volatility in the markets. Be concerned only if you need to sell in the very short term otherwise try to ignore the day to day movements.

Sentiment driven by further interest rate rises, fed meetings minutes, China woes are currently in play but at the same time the fundamentals in regard to BP remain strong. Oil demand is robust, supply is tight, global oil inventories are falling, Opec / KSA are ready to intervene if required, in addition, so although all equities, not just BP, are currently taking a beating, this will pass. Oils ability to bounce back after each set back is also very positive and a sign of its future direction.

I hope and expect the oil price to rise going forward to the end if the year and beyond and the likes of BP and other O&G companies to follow in the months to come.

Have a great day

I would expect Morgan Stanley are well able to manipulate the share price to BP'S buyback advantage when purchasing shares. If volumes are low at approximately 11m a day at present, and MS are buying back 4M, I am certain that they have ways and means to manipulate the price. This may explain the day volatility that we see, like today.

Low summer volumes are usual in July and August. Volumes will pick up around mid September. Nothing is certain, of course, but I expect a rotation into the energy sector in the coming months to year end and beyond. This is the view of many analysts for what its worth !!

Just need to stay the course.

Good afternoon all

BP and Shell stubbornly not moving out of their recent range despite the recent oil price rise. I expect this to be only a matter of time before we do finally break out and leave this sticky range.

Disappointing also to see the disconnect from the US / Canadian O&G companies who registered noticeable gains on Friday, in line with oil across the sector, whereas BP'S US rise on the US market on Friday was negligible and a fall today.

On a positive note, we were touching 495 last week with a lower oil price and the same oil demand and tight supply so beyond the current market frustrations there are happier uplands ahead.

Good day all

Afternoon all

Outside of the financial market circus, here's some real world data published today.

IEA SAYS WORLD OIL DEMAND HIT A RECORD 103 MILLION BPD IN JUNE AND AUGUST COULD SEE YET ANOTHER PEAK – MONTHLY REPORT

IEA SAYS GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY PLUNGED BY 910,000 BPD JULY IN PART DUE TO SHARP REDUCTION IN SAUDI OUTPUT

Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb. Preliminary data suggest global inventories drew further in July and August. IEA

The robust oil demand and tight supply data are facts.

The media stories and paper market manipulations are fiction.

Off to the pub.

Have a brilliant weekend all.

Hi meoryou

Your optimism is fully warranted. Unfortunately, today's share price dip has zero to do with the company's excellent financial and strategic position. One Friday soon, BP will pass that target.

Say hi to Linda for me on Monday and check that she is safe and well please. Slightly worried, as we haven't heard from her since her last price target for BP !!

Morning all

The fall this morning does not relate to the dividend. Markets are down across europe with equities taking a temporary hit. This is just another one of those low volume, summer trading days to be ignored if possible.

The day to day share price movement really is irrelevant unless you are looking to buy or sell. I do 'fall off the wagon' on occasion but I do try now to only focus specifically on the company fundamentals and attempt to ignore the daily market noise.

Have a great day all

Good morning TinkerT

Thanks, even a broken clock is right twice a day !!!

Some profit taking with oil held the SP back towards the end of the day but, all in all, a satisfactory ex dividend day demonstrating the underlying strength of O&G equities with Shell also ex dividend yesterday and ending slightly up.

I hope and expect much more to come for the rest of the year.

Have a great day.

Morning all

I nice commencement to ex dividend day. On the edge of going positive this morning. Looking good for a positive finish as hoped for..

Today's small market hurdle, US CPI data for July. 13.30. Looking for a fall from 4.8 to 4.6 or less to please the market.

Have a great day all

Good evening all.

A nice rise today. Let's see if ex-dividend day can surprise and buck the trend of a pull back and possibly end positive tomorrow.

Oil is flying at present but let's not forget LNG. Gas jumped 40% today on supply concerns. The current price is way below last year's highs but I don't rule out last year's levels being reached again later this year.

Last year's high gas price was achieved in spite of an exceptionally mild Autumn/Winter and with downward pressure on commodity prices due to the fear of an impending global depression. This year opinion has changed from the doom narrative of early 2023. Peak interest rates nearing. Mild recession, if at all, and a soft landing in the west, now seems majority opinion. Asian demand is also up this year compared to last year and a repeat of a mild winter this year is far from certain.

BP, along with the other O&G companies, are in a fantastic position to be the sector that powers ahead and becomes the sector to be invested in for at least the next 6 - 12 months. Growth ( Tech ) has done extremely well recently but looking at recent earnings and SP movements in my opinion its seems to be topping out a for now and I sense we are starting to see a rotation into value stocks such as BP.

Great evening all.

Ditto Spights

I am feeling very positive now, thank you !!!

The hurdles and obstacles have been many and repetitive over the past few months for BP holders but I sense we are now moving on.

With hindsight it's easy to see that the concerns ( including mine ) on the way down from 570 to 450 were unnecessary. Fundamentals remained strong throughout the recent summer volatility regardless of short term share price movements.

My personal mistake was mirco viewing the share price during this recent period and concern in seeing the drop taking away my vision from my long term hold goal.

Hi all

Fall backs on ex dividend dates are usually to be expected but I am not so sure with BP this time. I would not be surprised to see todays gains not reversed, certainly not fully, tomorrow. The gain of a 1.1% dividend is not what is driving BP higher today. The resilience of oil is the main driver here and oil appears to be setting up to break even higher.

Regardless of a number of different negative narratives that would have crashed the price of oil only a few weeks ago, it is increasing clear that oil demand is strong and resilient and will remain so for the foreseeable.

There is no positive narrative driving oil higher. China crisis, short term inventory builds, interest rates, recession worries yet oil us at $86 as traders can now see clear evidence of the sustained underlying strength of demand going forward paired with supply constraints.

Volatility will lessen over the next month with traders return to their desks to rebuild their portfolios with focus on the energy sector and I expect by this time next quarter £4.90 will be seen as a missed buying opportunity.

Have a great day all.

Brent $86+

The ever increasing resilience of oil in shaking off any attempt to depress the price is a very positive sign for the future. Just a matter of staying the course to be rewarded.

Afternoon all

Another example of market manipulation today. Nothing to be concerned about at all. Tedious and frustrating in the short term but fundamentals will push oil and equities in the months to come.

Afternoon all

No surprises at the Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee today. Recommended no changes to the coalition's output policy, but reiterated that the producer group stands ready to take action at short notice if it sees the need.

Onwards......

Good morning meoryou & spights

Feeling positive about today. The resilience of oil to bounce back in recent weeks against every attempt to drag it down is so positive going forward. Saudi cut already announced, today's Opec+ plus meeting with probably be a non event but you never know.

Have a great Friday. Onwards.......