Member Info for mark-expat

Hi CT , I refer to the following comments. "This implies continued weak trend for crude oil for the duration of the U.S. recession which is the key to crude oils trend for 2009, which given last months job losses of 533,000, the worst data in 34 years illustrates that the U.S. economy is a long way away from recovery with Europe not far behind in terms of economic contraction and therefore precludes a quick sustainable recovery for crude oil prices." "However going forward demand from developed countries is expected to continue to contract at the average rate of 200,000 barrels per day that implies the full impact of peak oil will be put off for as long as another 5 years, implying crude oil volatility during this period where a future sentiment driven crude oil bull market could yet again lead to another price crash" "a wide trading band of between $80 and $35, therefore expectations of much price volatility during the base building process during much of 2009" "confirms trend analysis for a volatile crude oil trading range during 2009." "Crude oil is still in a downtrend, that means investors and traders need to WAIT for a buy trigger" "there is TIME for investors to buy into crude oil positions as the base building confirmation takes place, as any strong rallies will likely be followed by tests and probable breaks of the previous low" "However the long-term trend for crude oil remains higher, when I mean long-term I am looking at well beyond the next 12months towards 5 to 10 years" - well I think 1 - 10 years should cover his prediction! - it is obvious to anyone that oil will remain a great trading commodity during these troubled times and that the wide trading range of $35 - $80 could very much be so. I currently trade a c.25% band of $40 or sub to c.$50 on US light crude as a long and will then start to look to sell and short depending on whats going on in the world .. - thanks for post CT , interesting read , gl.

Didedo/PB - not one I have looked into with any depth , sounds like PB has a bit of a handle on it. I must admit I am more into separating water for our future needs and consider that within a generation this will be the commercial way forward. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115857/ Not a good film , but the idea was there and things have come along way in the last 13 years. I have a project that is now producing ( many others have to ) but I am , fingers crossed ,confident that if not ours , such process methods will become mainstream in the not too distant future.

Didedo , Goldmans have penciled in a 585m barrel slump in oil demand this year and has a target of $30

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article5497172.ece

x input always needed ... keep posting.

Happy New Year to you to Didedo. My view on oil for this year remains factual in that the overal trend of oil price will be governed by demand and as demand continues to fall that any short term recovery will only be bought about by potential supply concerns either by conflict or restriction via the likes of OPEC and/or other political pressures via the turning down of the taps , and investment speculation. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7816967.stm To think that oil could be stored in leased tankers at sea to prevent it being sold at current market prices would certainly add to the arguement that some serious traders expect or would like to think that the price of oil will go up by some large percentage , but to me further demonstrates continued oversupply and weakening demand. The last round of production restrictions was not modest and cracks were certainly becoming evident amongst members as to how far some within OPEC will go to support the price of oil ....it simply comes down to supply and demand and there is evidently an over supply to meet current demand with reserves and exploration in place. Future demand is obviously tied into the recovery of global economies and again , it depends on which side of the fence you sit as to how you see these recoveries fall into place. My personal view , is that we are going to see a period of long drawn out global contraction. The reason why I say this is that we have had long periods of sustained growth with only very short relative contraction periods , all of which remained inflationary in the UK. We have not , in the UK , seen deflation since the end of WWII and this , in my book , is not sustainable given our current economic and financial health backdrop. A period of deflation could very well be on the cards towards the end of this year and should this deflationary period arrive , the length of its duration and how far it spirals will dictate how long it will take for economies to recover as I believe that , should it arrive , that deflation will not just hit the UK. I have never experienced deflation , and unless you were born in the 1930's , no adult in the UK would have. All I know is that it is feared by some and more by others the longer it remains. There is no doubt in my mind that whilst we face such prevailing winds that there is no reason for oil to recover aside from conflict or manipulation because the end user will not be demanding it in the volumes the oil industry has been used to. This does not mean though that oil is not attractive to trade when it is being supported for whatever reason or on its return to weakness but trading short term trends is not , as you are well aware , a long term investment strategy. Whilst the infrastructure of gas delivery into Europe is reliant upon the likes of Russia , again , in time , such reliance will dwindle as new gas fields are developed and more dependable pipelines are scourced. So , the same applies to gas as with oil. If Russia wants to flex its arm to get a better deal and manipulate in whatever way it sees fit , then yes , this will efect the price of gas in the same way as such factors effect the price of oil. What will happen to the price of such energy resources medium term ie. 1-3 years will remain in how the world recovers but longer term , take note of this. As of January 2009, the world's population is estimated to be about 6.7 billion and on its current growth trajectory, is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2042. Whilst , imo , I think we can only just manage with what we have on our planet now , the amount of energy and food needed to meet such a population increase demand alone , would certainly bode well for long term future prices if nothing else is viably scourced. I think the comment on finite resource has serious validation and hope that Gas has abundant reserves as it is much cleaner and easier to distribute than oil. I also hope that the production of hydrogen gas by the breaking down the elements of water and other forms of energy being put to use today will also , hopefully ,all mature and come into play over the next few decades. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7817063.stm

Very sad to say , but when bombs fall out of the sky over any part of the middle east , the price of oil will surge.

Hi Dededo , happy xmas and a prosperous New Year to you and yours to. It would look as if Putin sees gas as saviour of the Russian economy http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/gas/3919430/Gas-exporters-create-new-group-as-Putin-warns-cheap-prices-at-an-end.html A stronger gas cartel would surely equal stronger gas prices as I understand that folk do not like to go to Russia just to sample the vodka. Natural Gas for January '09 delivery is currently $57.11 to sell $57.56 to buy via IG Markets and via TD Waterhouse Spread Bet $57.46 to sell $57.94 to buy but this is for February '09. I need to look into whether or not there are other methods of trading gas as there must be better ways as this could be one of the main rescources to trade.

Global recession fears batter oil price Robert Lea, Evening Standard 23 December 2008, 10:52am The oil price is poised to end the year at barely a third of where it was at the start of 2008 and registering an extraordinary 75% crash from its all-time peak in high summer. Crude was on the wane again today amid latest news of slumping Asian demand and the gloom of forecasts of a deep global recession in 2009. The price of oil in New York traded down 57 cents at $39.34 a barrel against the record $147.27 set in early July and a price of about $98 a year ago. Brent crude traded in London was priced at $40.80, down 65 cents from yesterday. Weighing heavily on oil was downbeat economic snapshots from around the world. Not the least of these is a final revision of US gross domestic product statistics later today which is expected to show how deep in trouble the US economy is. Investors have also been rattled by a sharp decline in exports from Japan, the biggest Asian economy, as well as by a big reduction in imports of crude. Oil imports in South Korea are also sharply down. In addition, the fifth interest-rate cut by China in recent months was not seen as a positive financial stimulus for the world's largest emerging economy, and highlighted fears that the Beijing government is overseeing a slowdown in the march of the dragon economy. While the Saudi Arabia-led cartel of major producers has said that it will cut demand by up to 5% to counter the collapse in the demand, the market is now largely ignoring any attempts to put a false floor under the cratering price of oil.

an interesting general article that highlights the problems that oilers could face should both decline and price continue to weaken. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article5380213.ece

a general feed if you not have it , the article is of no value , as such , but oilvoice has some interesting news. http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Oilexco_Provides_Financing_Update/5c4ba657.aspx

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/3852773/Oil-at-40-a-barrel-will-cause-price-explosion-in-future.html Oil is a cartel - 'A combination of independent business organizations formed to regulate production, pricing, and marketing of goods by the members.' It would seem that global politicians , whilst they like their cut ,want to put the lid on runaway oil prices. The worlds biggest business is oil. Oilers will have to , in my book , get used to declining demand , lower their expectations and change how they operate their gravy train. Blue , the share is SNR , Senior.

Didedo ,you have pretty much answered your own question. The Dow Jones has a significant pull on the markets in general and sectors within. For example , the initial positive vote the other day re the US car industry bailout lifted index's globaly and sectors within more so and more so again , individual stocks most likely effected. Other associated sectors such as car parts and oil also lifted. When the senate said no , down they all came like a stack of bricks , the index's , sectors within , individual equities and associated car parts and oil. Shares that are dual listed also follow on , its like a clock and once you are in its circle it becomes very clear. Trading sharply at hours that the markets decide they want to change is where ops arise. I get alerted when the markets are shifting out of pattern and tend to leave it alone when its stable. The Asian markets may tumble during the night and these , if there are factors within that effect other global economies , will drag down futures elsewhere. I do not tend to hold stocks as a rule as it does not interest me. If someone said , as is often the case , for example Lloyds is over sold and will be worth x in days , months , years down the line , it simply does not interest me. Lloyds , for example , is worth x today and that is that to me. I will intraday trade a stock at a reasonably high volume if I feel it is relatively safe to do so and may hold on overnight or for a few days if the trend is maintained. Sometimes I get wrong footed and I will trade the position until in profit and then close. With financials , I will always close the same day , even if at a loss. I mainly traded financials when you could both long and short , as it gave me an ability to hedge a position on short term weakness , etc , and I was very good at it. When the shorting ban came in , I had to look at other sides of trading that I was doing OK at but also enjoyed. I sooner be out than in so to speak and be able to trade , in whatever direction and sometimes both if I am unsure , and step in and step out when I feel comfortable to do so. I will happily trade , almost fully now by spread bet if available, several index's many times a day. If you are tuned in and able to do so without distraction it is not anywhere as near as risky as some investments or investors make out, but it takes time so tread gently , but the tools are there to be used and time should always be on your side.

AndyDB - I do think that global indices have recently come off their lows in reaction to world wide support to prevent a meltdown. This could be an adjustment by the bulls to correct a sell off in light of having a regained confidence in such global tactics or a classic bear rally. Either way , the market is looking for direction and at the moment showing little signs of a further spurt and in many ways and profit taking from the recent rally is evident. With reference to the UK joining the Euro that was mentioned , with sterlings sell off and overal weakness , I consider that the UK not joining the Euro would have more of a negative impact on the FTSE than joining. I remind myself that we are not a manufacturing powerhouse , not a global exporting wonder and remain an Island largely reliant upon imports. Most FTSE 100 companies have divisions that trade in dollars and euros and as our national structure is more often than not governed by our European membership , it would make life easier to throw in the towel and take up the currency , especially as we are at an all sterling time low with little ability to export higher volumes due to a slowdown in the economy and lack of ability to do anything about it. The interesting thing is whether or not the UK would be accepted ... my understanding is that to adopt the Euro , national debt should not exceed 3 x GDP and my understanding is that with recent events we have exceeded that and are likely to hit double this or even 7 x GDP , but as I am no specialist in such matters , I am sure that this is only 1 method and we may get 'browny' points for being so important to europe in other ways.

Didelo , good to talk about the ftse , etc , here. I am actually just off to bed but will get back later today. Read through some of these posts , most if not all posters posting here are experienced and helpful.

If you want to talk about Oil , this is the place to do it.

You want to discuss Gold , this is the place to talk about it.

Hiya all , well done TandH for setting this up. I will not post unless I feel that there is anything relevant... thought that the new rules of declaring shorts over 0.25% might have some interesting results. Whilst not comming into force until next Friday , that gives 4 days for institutions , hedge funds , big players , to get their house in order. The reason why I feel this to be relevant is that I would not be surprised if many large investors hedge their long term positions and whilst this is a natural undertaking to do so in my book , it could be very embarrassing to some , especially if they are shorting their own stock , influence board decisions, say one thing and do another , invest in stock for others , ie. pensions and then short and not declare those related positions that could cause a few raised eyebrows at shareholder meetings , etc.. it will , imo , change investment practice within the ftse 100 at the top end and as such , in my book , will only assist in lifting the ftse 100 in the short term as a result.