Member Info for mark-expat

Morning Tie , as is often said , trend is your friend. I have no doubt that oil may well continue to be 'traded' to new highs this year if further enabled and yes , the dollar , as always , is one of the most important ingrediants in calling its direction. This is a link that PB posted today under the AVM board , you might have already had sight of such , but worthy of a view , try to watch to the end , if not already seen , again all useful comment to be mindfull of with a pinch of salt whatever when getting stuck in. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32448451/site/14081545 ...speaking of salt , I am on my Sunday Lunch watch , enjoy the Sunday respite , its been a cracking period of late and I am sure there will not be a dull moment for many months if not years to come , gl and thanks for the link the other day , keep them flowing , Mark. PS. do not know if you have this one but again ,can be a useful site for more depth comparison on research http://www.oilvoice.com/n/TNKBPs_Samotlor_Field_Declared_the_Worlds_Sixth_Biggest/4b2f3ae45.aspx

Tie , above article taken from http://www.energiesexpert.com/ They have a few reads from time to time that may give some balance, gl

I better get whatever they are drinking. Oil prices surge to their highest prices since June as the stock-market and petroleum complex responds to an Energy Information Agency oil inventory shock drop of 8.4 million barrels. Oh sure there is no doubt that an 8.4 million barrel drop deserves some attention and some market enthusiasm but I wonder if it should be to this extent of the firestorm that it set off yesterday. Does anyone ever read the fine print? The drop in supply was stunning but the drop in demand week over week should have been shocking as well. Did anyone stop to think that the numbers seem to suggest that this massive supply drop was a bit mysterious to say the least? Where the Hardy boys and Nancy are drew when you need them? Let’s start trying to unravel this mystery by trying to figure out why crude supplies fell. Did oil refiners all of a sudden get this sudden uncontrollable urge to make product? Well let’s start by looking at the refinery runs. Last week’s report show refiners were running at 85.9 percent of capacity. This week refinery runs fell to 84 percent. Refinery inputs fell from 14.8 million barrels a day to 14.5 million barrels day. Not quite the answer that we were looking for. In fact what should have been more disturbing was the drop in product demand Gasoline demand fell 300,000 barrels a day from the week before. Dow Jones Newswires gasoline demand in the 4 averaged 9.132 million barrels a day, lagging the adjusted year-earlier level by 0.1%.That's the first demand 4-week gasoline demand lagged the year-earlier level since May 29. Gasoline demand in the latest 4 weeks was the lowest since May 15, down 0.9% from a year earlier. Distillate demand dropped by 900,000 barrels a day! So if it was not demand driven then it must have been a drop to do something else. Now we are getting closer to solving the mystery. Why crude did imports drop so suddenly? You have to look where the biggest drop in supply was. It was in the Gulf Coast. Gulf coast supplies that had been hovering around the 182 million barrel plus for the last three weeks or so suddenly plunged to 175.8 million barrels. Hmm, I wonder what happened in the Gulf Coast last week that might have slowed oil tankers. Was it in part it might be because some crude was diverted to Europe due to higher a higher Brent price? Was it because as Reuters news theorizes that because there is a steep premium for long-dated crude oil futures some traders may have temporarily park more barrels off the U.S. Gulf Coast in order to lock in a higher price down the road? Are traders just playing the contango holding off deliveries in anticipation of prices rising later? Reuters says that stocks of crude stored offshore fell to 50 million to 60 million barrels in June and part of July, but several sources recently put them around 70 million barrels and rising. Or is it perhaps because refiners are using sweeter blends of crude due to higher heavy grade prices? Perhaps but then why are refinery runs are still falling? You see my dear Watson, there is truth in all of these theories and they no doubt played a part of adding to this mystery but could the real answer be as elementary as the weather? There were two storms in the Atlantic and just after the reporting period Tropical Storm Claudette, the third of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved ashore within hours. Is it possible that tankers looking at the weather wanted to wait out these storms in the ocean instead of trying to beat a path into the Gulf ahead of the storms? And could the massive move in oil be a short squeeze part why the market reacted the way it did. In part it was an old fashion squeeze if you please? Let’s face it if oil was rallying because demand was surging or because supply was so tight any aberration might be critical but this drop in supply is not going to leave any refinery anywhere wanting. I do not think any refinery is sitting around waiting for the ships to come in. http://www.energiesexpert.com/archives/article.php?id=622 Next week we will be waiting for oil’s ship to come in! If I am right they will be coming in and the inventory induced mystery will be solved.

an interesting read http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6804500.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=1185799

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/

Hiya Kis , hope things are well at your end , I think anything with a euro in a front of it will do the trick of shying off a chosen spend!!

Thanks for that CT , looks like the euro may be heading into "June's" low period...anyway , taken profits from last weeks recent surge and put towards more interesting game , gl.

.. and on charts , I would say without strong understanding , and on a very basic level of charting that , using IG's MA 20 (blue) , MA 50 (grey) and MA 100 (red) on the daily (or whatever timeframe) , that when the MA 20 crosses the MA50 from underneath in an upward direction and continues to do so northwards and then the MA 50 crosses the MA 100 the same , should the MA20 then head northwest of the MA50 , should the MA 50 continue along a continued natural path and the the MA 100 start to head south east, then a rally is in the making and the opo produce a downturn. I do not see a trend other than a continued decline of late and now a level point on the Euro vs Sterling... sentiment in the morrow may be the stimuli for some direction short term and indeed for an immediate quick buck ; gl

... whilst on currencies , respected vocal speculators seem to be going bearish going forward in the yen department.

Monaco , CT7/8/9? Germany has a few economic results out early bird , retail sales 0600 , Unemployment 0755 and the EU Consumer confidence report due out at 0900 , all GMT... finger on the trigger.

Looks like the unexpected spike in US reserves today caused a drag back to $63 , a few stops no doubt hit along the way to assist. Could well slip , as TIE has already made referal to , the 50's short term. Plenty of oilers reporting in the morrow! Looks like the end product price does not meet with happy producers producing lower profits and investors selling off refiners. There are many saying that natural gas stocks are overold? A good link for economic announcements that trumps my last is the following , it was posted on the LSE Chat board and I picked it up to review , sadly I forgot who posted it , so if anyone can link it to the poster , I would like to pass on my thanks. http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5687AV20090710?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews Oil resumed its fall towards $60 on Friday and looks set to end the week down around 8 percent, its largest weekly fall since late January, on deepening economic pessimism and fears of new regulations to curb futures speculation.

then the men http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8eDUT7iyDk

then the boys http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irp8CNj9qBI

there remain good feline vocals http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOR_jq9M53c&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGC003Xz3CY

non complete http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lML2N4xB9GU&feature=related

Monaco , well posted http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy3BdoWaYxY

Hi PB , KAH have had an outstanding run over the last couple of months and really let off some steam today , could you not read the I.C quicker and post earlier next time?

Hi Monaco , hope your New Year went well , yep , the April contract down about 400 points since your post!