Member Info for mariog

apologies, I misread it. I read it as a bid for NSF. Agree, unlikely we will bid for Provident. Maybe for some unit but never for the entire company as in 2019. This wont be approved.

I can see it, but first we need to clear that FCA guarantor loans issue. FCA is a big worry for the entire sector now.

But if they announce the home credit review, market will probably drag it down. Scary times with this 'borrow now, complain later attitude'..

Home Credit is also not main here. The total loan book is 24.7m

o/t worth to also check NSF who will have their FCA decision regarding redress amount within next 2 weeks. They should be first out of this GL review.

You see. If NSF recovers first and Provident goes significantly down... MAYBE we will see 2nd attempt to takeover Provident, successful this time? For sure the BoD still remembers pain after their bid was rejected in 2019

The one who will be 1st out of this mess will be a winner. The one that is closest is the NSF :))
Provident only at the beginning of the painful way.

Thanks Nostra. MM driving the price is?

Company says that GL is their smallest business and they stand behind 16m redress.

Back to basics. Business worth approx £300m. Mcap £21m. £78m cash. Term Loan £330m Aug 2023 (can be extended, no questions about it). FCA redress £16m sounds like small bag of chips.

What else I found over this weekend...
Everyday Loans was established by its management team and Alchemy Partners in 2006. Secure Trust Bank acquired Everyday Loans from its management team and Alchemy Partners on 8 June 2012.
Then in 2015 NSF bought Everyday Loans from STB for £235m. Loan book was at that time £105m.
Since 2020 Alchemy is back with 29.9% stake. NSF mcap is £21m and loan book around £180m. How much Alchemy paid, not a lot.
How undervalued NSF company is? NSF is valued today around 10% of this what should be.
Alchemy has enough money to place a firm bid, but they will be first trying to lure the BoD that significant recapitalisation is needed, while in fact only a small part is required to unlock the 200m. Let me say again, Alchemy knows the value and they will be fighting to get control over it. Then they will change the board as the new people will make company look better and will be easier to sell it for £300-400m in my opinion.

Jinny, I can be wrong, but I think dilution on Alchemy's terms will only happen if Alchemy gets 75% shareholders voting for it. Hope BOD doesnt already sleep in the same bed with Alchemy and Peel Hunt. Once the war starts we will see hopefully some fireworks here and minimum 25p end.

I just stand behind the Countrywide story. It is clear for me now that a very similar scenario is in play. Alchemy will be trying to get as much as they can from us but the contra offer can come from another side. NSF has experienced a really nasty 2 years and covid doesn't help. But as they are operating and loan term can easily be renegotiated. Also what I noted is the use of "significant recapitalisation" which Alchemy was trying to sell to shareholders in 2020 with CWD. Significant was not needed. Similar as here. No need to significantly recapitalise. What is needed is to issue amount that would plug the difference required to use 200m securisation facility. I wish some other fund will wake up to this or the Bod does something or put company on sell.
If Alchemy does what whey want, first they will takeover the company, second they will change the Bod, third they sell it as a profitable business with sound financials.

For this reason Marathon will not back them up. They can come up with some alternative or bid for the entire company.
Alchemy will be trying to issue as many shares as they can and Marathon May not like it. A very silimar what happened at Countrywide plc CWD.
If you compare both you will see that Peel Hunt (N Utley company) worked with Alchemy when they tried the same trick with CWD in 2020.

This is how it ended with Countrywide plc.
172% premium bid.
https://propertyindustryeye.com/newsflash-connells-agrees-terms-to-purchase-majority-interest-in-countrywide/

Wait for some war to start here. It's very profitable business. Even Neil Utley will be trying go take it over.
This what we hear about "recapitalisation supported by Alchemy" is a ****** as their are not supporting it, Alchemy wants to easily buy the entire business this way.
They will need 75% votes. They have 29.9% so they need to start accumulating or sell a great story to buy our votes in the future.

Alchemy will be looking for 75% shareholder votes to go ahead with their plan. If won't get it, will have to pass.
https://propertyindustryeye.com/alchemy-rules-out-new-offer-countrywide/

First this https://www.macfarlanes.com/press-releases/2020/macfarlanes-advises-alchemy-on-proposed-fundraising-by-countrywide-plc/?utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_medium=Social&utm_term=&utm_content=Press-release&utm_campaign=recent-news

Then a new buyer appeared.
All we have to do is to keep accurating shares so the takeover bid is higher.

* corrected Subject as no way this is gonna take 12 months. The war to take over control will start just after the FCA response in my opinion*

Read today quite a lot about Alchemy Special Opportunities and their approach to companies in special situations like this one is. I am sure that Alchemy will be pushing for recapitalisation, well we have it already confirmed by BOD, will try buy remaining 21% of the company from the issued shares just to take it over & sell later to another company OR there will be a contra offer to takeover NSF before capital rising. Likely scenario - Countrywide. Ended for shareholders at contra offer and sell exactly as on the pre-covid level.
If this is to happen here then we can see a nice 30p happy end. Hold & do not sell your shares as it is coming.

Read today quite a lot about Alchemy Special Opportunities and their approach to companies in special situations like this one is. I am sure that Alchemy will be pushing for recapitalisation, well we have it already confirmed by BOD, will try buy remaining 21% of the company from the issued shares just to take it over & sell later to another company OR there will be a contra offer to takeover NSF before capital rising. Likely scenario - Countrywide. Ended for shareholders at contra offer and sell exactly as on the pre-covid level.
If this is to happen here then we can see a nice 30p happy end. Hold & do not sell your shares as it is coming.

Almost 50%:
Alchemy Special Opportunities LLP 29.9%, Marathon Asset Mgt 10.6%, Neil Utley 6.99%