Member Info for marik

I agree, there could be multiple reasons for today. It could be institutional investors in the background not pi's from this BB selling their 100 shares. We'll find out tomorrow or next week.

@turnkey

"...too late to the party"

In terms of vaccines, we need top up jabs. Why, because the current double vaccinated efficacy drops over time. Secondly, we can't stop new variants and we can't achieve herd immunity. That leads us to an unfortunate situation of us having to live with the virus for a long time to come. In terms of medication, I can only see 2 potential therapies that are effective and even they are to be used at specific stages of infection. This leaves the issue of controlling spread and outbreaks. Once you see beyond the noise of this and other bulletin boards, you will realise that the testing party is only getting started.

What you will find at this stage is that the regulations will get tighter and the best tests will survive. There is a a very big market still available and Avacta and **some** other stocks will pull through. Unlike in technology sector where betamax lost out to vhs OR Apple lost to Microsoft, in healthcare the winner will be the best tests and the best medication.

"...all the covid testing stocks down in the rubble"

The rubble you speak of is a matter of perspective. I started investing in Avacta before the pandemic and am sitting in profit. However, I can see that for someone who invested late that they are seeing rubble. In which case, I only have one suggestion, do your own research as it comes with many benefits. One, it helps with your conviction of a particular stock (as I do here), and secondly it helps you to avoid making wild investments.

It also **very importantly** lets you see the changes in price for what they are. What you are experiencing with Avacta is not rubble, I've seen these kind drops before, but note that it is without concrete negative news. It takes time to be able to differentiate between seriously bad news (as we had with HE1 yesterday) versus impatient investors assuming that a downward move or trend means bad news for the company. The share price for Avacta is disconnected with the current valuation or future valuation. I invest for the long term and am not a day trader and for me that means only two things, buy more or hold.

Hope that helps and good luck.

@jackester, you never got back. What is it that you do?

"why would a cancer patient in remission volunteer to receive an ever increasing dose of a toxic drug"

It's not ever increasing. The dose is escalated until some of the patients feel toxicity. Should no toxicity be reported, the dose will escalate to the 6th/7th cycle at which point the study stops. In this scenario AVA6000, will be deemed non-toxic and larger doses have been administered to try find the upper threshold. You could well see patients in complete remission. The higher doses in a controlled environment will be useful as other forms of cancer may be more aggressive.

GL

Myles is good at what he does.

* dose = cumulative dose

The ethics are intrinsic to the study. (The primary and secondary end points are not remission). As a standard 3+3, the dose will continue to go up, with toxicity being the negative feedback. As long as that criteria is met, the study will continue with no further ethics to consider.

Let me stand in for him.

7.01am tomorrow for contracts news. You heard it hear first.

Also note that this trial could see a situation for a patient where the treatment results in a full remission, but the patient will continue to take the drug until trial completes.

More like troll busters.

As one poster pointed out as the trial continues, it's something that is very difficult to keep quite and information will start to leak. There is a big possibility of this with the AVA6000 patients. If AVA6000 works (as per pre-clinical data), then all 21 patients could recover with **relatively** minimal side-effects at which point the cat will be out of the bag well before the trial completes. For big investors the timeline and pressure nature of the trial will mean that the penny will start to drop over the coming weeks.

I've said this before and I'll underline it again, there will be a lot of institutional(s) taking positions in Avacta following todays RNS and they will have a good idea of the potential leaking of data and the time-line being very fine. This would place Avacta, very soon in my opinion, as an acquisition target. When that happens, for once you will be able to genuinely use rocket emojis.

To summarise, from here on in, no news is good news (for LTH) and as time progresses the more positive it is. By end of October we could well have the data for analysis, and would certainly have some top line read out by the end of the year. For shorts and day traders, this won't be a pretty sight as the penny drops for institutional investors.

On that basis I will have to agree with the statement in todays RNS:

"...then that would open up an extensive and proprietary pipeline for Avacta of next-generation pre|CISIONTM pro-drug chemotherapies with significant clinical and commercial advantages in a chemotherapy market that is expected to exceed $74 billion by 2027"

(See original thread here: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AVCT&share=Avacta&thread=9BB68C39-4852-444A-A77E-0FC49B912B60)

2/2

@Kong1

Currently the use of dox is curtailed due to side-effects e.g. chronic heart failure and is given at the same doses, where total cumulative doses of doxorubicin give rise to excess of 450 mg/m² in the heart tissue. This usually limits the number of chemo rounds to approx 6.

Avacta pro-dox, is starting on a 3+3 dose escalation open-label study, and my view will be that dosing will escalate (approx.) 80mg/m², 133mg/m², 200mg/m², 280mg/m² and 370mg/m² per round. We have pre-clinical data that shows that AVA6000 gave an 18-fold more active substance in the tumour versus the heart. The # patients will incrementally increase in number per round: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 20(/21).

Once AVA6000 has reached round 3 (i.e. 9 patients), the first cohort of 3 patients will have received close to 450 mg/m². This will get quite interesting, because beyond this point we will have a clear indication of any issues from the first cohort of 3 patients.

I believe that Avacta will have received notice of the first patient dosed late last week, however, the actually date of dosing can be a week or two before. Which puts us around mid-late July when the actual first dose was administered. From my understanding, the fourth round will be around late September to mid-October. If we hear no news about AVA6000 before October 15th, then this becomes positive news i.e. the more days that go by without mention of toxicity the better (note that trials can be stopped early).

AVA6000 has an 18-fold more active chemotherapy in the tumour then the heart (pre-clinical data). Currently patients have a prognosis of 12.8 months without chemo and approximately 14.3 months with. I believe this increase in dose available to the patients will dramatically improve the survival of patients.

Alastair mentioned in the last presentation that we are waiting on the initial pharmacokinetic data, in simple terms the distribution of the drug around the body. It will be a significant milestone for the group as a whole i.e. a big re-rate for the company. My calculations, suggest that this data will be available approx. 12 weeks from now and as such I am expecting it before the end of the year.

At rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7, the total cumulative dose of pro-dox will be well in excess of the 450 mg/m² which implies that data by the end of the trial along with informing stated primary and secondary outcomes, will intrinsically provide the therapeutic effect of AVA6000 in a small cohort. Which in itself will be additional good news.

To summarise, from here on in, no news is good news and as time progresses the more positive it is. By end of October we could well have the data for analysis, and would certainly have some tope line read out by the end of the year. PK data will be sufficient for a rerate.

1/2

*AVA500 should read AVA6000 (big thumbs).

@jackester
I am an investor. And yourself?

@Howzaty "will be very leaky"
I lost someone very close not too long ago to cancer and I can say that if AVA6000 was available back then, they may well have pulled through. It's something that is very difficult to keep quite. There is a big possibility of this with the AVA500 patients. If AVA6000 works (as per pre-clinical data), then all 21 patients could recover with **relatively** minimal side-effects at which point the cat will be out of the bag well before the trial completes. For big investors the timeline and pressure nature of the trial will mean that the penny will start to drop over the coming weeks.

I've said this before and I'll underline it again, there will be a lot of institutional(s) taking positions in Avacta following todays RNS and they will have a good idea of the potential leaking of data and the time-line being very fine. This would place Avacta, very soon in my opinion, as an acquisition target. When that happens, for once you will be able to genuinely use rocket emojis.

"If you signal Myles, we’ll get ... jealous tirade ..."

You'll have a host of green boxes in the thread. Todays news is also bad for the trolls as the 3+3 design and dosing regimen implies that the trial stops when we hear that toxicity levels are high (33% of patients). The lack of news becomes good news for long term investors as opposed to shorters/traders (see https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AVCT&share=Avacta&thread=9BB68C39-4852-444A-A77E-0FC49B912B60)

He is more of an investor than a trader and is a very good at his analysis and investments. You will get some trolls here trying to emulate him in an effort to gain kudos from fellow BB posters. However, they fall well short. You can find his latest tweet here:

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1425345567715172352

GL

To underline what Myles McNulty wrote earlier on twitter:

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1425345567715172352

"A brief reminder of how this trial could ultimately be transformational for millions of cancer patients"

This is a transformational RNS and will have a huge impact on the share price.

I am expecting the share price to rise over the coming months, but irrespective, a very big rerate will happen on results.

To add: at rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7, the total cumulative dose of pro-dox will be well in excess of the 450 mg/m² which implies that data by the end of the trial along with informing stated primary and secondary outcomes, will intrinsically provide the therapeutic effect of AVA6000 in a small cohort. Which in itself will be additional good news.

Currently the use of dox is curtailed due to side-effects e.g. chronic heart failure and is given at the same doses, where total cumulative doses of doxorubicin give rise to excess of 450 mg/m² in the heart tissue. This usually limits the number of chemo rounds to approx 6.

Avacta pro-dox, is starting on a 3+3 dose escalation open-label study, and my view will be that approx. 80mg/m², 133mg/m², 200mg/m², 280mg/m² and 370mg/m². We have pre-clinical data that shows that AVA6000 gave an 18-fold more active substance in the tumour versus the heart. The patients will incrementally increase in number per round: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 20(/21).

Once AVA6000 has reached round 3 (i.e. 9 patients), the first cohort of 3 patients will have received close to 450 mg/m². This will get quite interesting, because beyond this point we will have a clear indication of any issues from the first cohort of 3 patients.

I believe that Avacta will have received notice of the first patient dosed late last week, however, the actually date of dosing can be a week or two before. Which puts us around mid-late July when the actual first dose was administered. From my understanding, the fourth round will be around late September to mid-October. If we hear no news about AVA6000 before October 15th, then this becomes positive news i.e. the more days that go by without mention of toxicity the better (note that trials can be stopped early).

AVA6000 has an 18-fold more active chemotherapy in the tumour then the heart (pre-clinical data). Currently patients have a prognosis of 12.8 months without chemo and approximately 14.3 months with. I believe this increase in dose available to the patients will dramatically improve the survival of patients.

Alastair mentioned in the last presentation that we are waiting on the initial pharmacokinetic data, in simple terms the distribution of the drug around the body. It will be a significant milestone for the group as a whole i.e. a big re-rate for the company. My calculations, suggest that this data will be available approx. 12 weeks from now and as such I am expecting it before the end of the year.

To summarise, from here on in, no news is good news and as time progresses the more positive it is. By end of October we could well have the data for analysis, and would certainly have some tope line read out by the end of the year.

On that basis I will have to agree with the statement in todays RNS:

"...then that would open up an extensive and proprietary pipeline for Avacta of next-generation pre|CISIONTM pro-drug chemotherapies with significant clinical and commercial advantages in a chemotherapy market that is expected to exceed $74 billion by 2027"

"What I do know, categorically, is that demand currently outstrips supply." I have to concur on this point.