Member Info for marik

It's not guess work.

GL

Although it is starting at 80mg/m2, the dose will escalate dependent on protocol. Here they are escalating using a specific protocol for which I won't bore you with the details.

Standard MF, they often get their information wrong.

I've calculated the dosing myself.

Yes agree. But I think MG is being a little coy about the attendance numbers. These are at the moment practically filled to > 60% capacity. Will wait to see when to add more here.

The Royal Marsden has in excess of 250 beds and is a cancer specialist hospital. Although they can recruit at other sites, all 21 patients can quite easily be filled by the RM. I would be surprised if they need to go to other sites for phase 1a and if it creates a delay. Phase 1b will however be open to more sites.

"Question for you if you don't mind. Per clinical trials.gov (last update 22nd July), only one site is recruiting at this stage. Do you think this one site will recruit the patients for Phase Ia or does the lack of recruiting from the other sites push back the timelines for this escalating dose phase?"

I'm placing the actual first dose around last week of July. By the time they announce the first dose its a bit later.

With r/ current movements in the shareprice that's a separate discussion.

Its a little quite here...

@Hurst10

I've said this before, but for reference and a bit more detail. The nature of the trial 3+3 means no news is good news. As the trial continues it implies further people have been added and the dose has increased (with standard caveats), it implicitly places upward pressure. We're already on week3 and the second dose probably already given by now. I'm calculating the cumulative dose at:

Week: Approx. Dose (mg/m2) [# of test subjects]
Start: 80 [3]
Week 3: 200 [6]
Week 6: 420 [9]
Week 9: 700 [12]
Week 12: 1000 [15]
Week 15: 1600 [18]
Week 18: 2500 [21]

Every day that goes by and the trial continues, the lack of news is meaningful and every three weeks it is even more meaningful. For AVA6000 severe toxicity will be noticeable within 24 hours of administration of each dose. As we haven't received any toxicity news so far, it implies that the 80mg/m2 has not caused the trial to stop.

By week 6 (6th/7th of September) we are reaching cumulative dose similar to max of Doxorubicin and by week 9, the end of September it will be well in excess of the maximum cumulative dose equivalent for Doxorubicin. Any repeat dosage will also have been carried out by this stage and no negative news by end of September is a big milestone. No negative news by end November would be a huge milestone for AVA6000.

Top level read out should be available by end of year. Secondly, the pre-clinical efficacy and localisation to the TME (18x vs heart), would imply that even a fraction of this in phase 1a will have clinical benefit. We could see full remission in some of the patients even at this stage.

News might leak due to the nature of the trials and potentially early results declared. As such AVA6000 phase 1a trial is a ticking problem for those shorting.

I disagree, the updated thesis will require sales estimates etc.

On Friday, post Avacta meeting, Myles wrote:

"Updated investment theses on first 3 being [Avacta] written. Will also declare sales once all completed."

I've realised that all of you have missed some crucial points made by Myles. He is currently writing his investment thesis for Avacta and will also ***"DECLARE SALES"*** once complete. This is exceptionally generous as I rarely share mine, and I take my hat off to him. It also tells me that the meeting at Avacta was quite positive. I've been adding over the last month especially today and kept some dry.

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1426201209183084544

My take home from that RNS is that; one month per well to complete. First well lessons to refine and de-risk drilling of subsequent wells. Within that RNS is built in potential failure (i.e. lessons); as such the share price is already over cooked and should be sitting within the 18p - 21p range.

"why has there been no TA posts over the weekend? "

Not the question I asked.

The sp *is* in range, basic concepts of charting can help entry and exit points for LTH. However, chartists here are day/swing trading with conflicts of interest towards LTH.

@Apre. "Choose another id, choose another BB, choose another way of making minimum wage"

Currently tag teaming on the HE1 BB.

wyn/ndn why they are calling you one/two the tag team, and the following comments?

“Wyndy, they are not 'my' highlights, they are yours. A few of many. Endless, pointless, repeated, repetitive, egotistical, self-serving, self-important, waffling, meandering, contradictory, devious, negative, manipulative . . . well, you get the picture.

Knock it off mate. You've been exposed time and time again. You are a busted flush. Choose another id, choose another BB, choose another way of making minimum wage . . . just go already . . ."

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AVCT&share=Avacta&thread=97EA777F-9003-4940-8DBA-DA87B263F5AC

@SeagullsFan

"2 months is not what I would class as reasonable in these circumstances."

It's all a matter of perspective. The company would need to weigh up the benefit of rushing out an RNS for the PIs. I'd rather they took their time and got it right the second time rather than prioritise PI's at this stage. The LT PI's time will come, but it isn't right now and I think placing an arbitrary 2 months is unfair as well. However, the more seasoned LT investors on this board with their knowledge on drilling might have a better understanding of the timeframes (I'd rather hear from them than the day/swing traders).

Yeah thanks for that rtx, I have no interest if their comments increase/decrease the SP or not.

@wyndn17. LOL, so much for "i've filtered you".

You're the one pretending to be a master at this, teach us.

p.s. you don't need a book for the following, (basic support resistance), which says it might go up or down:

"The price now at 13p is a positive sign for further (short term) gains. if its not a false breakout then it puts 14.3p as the next target with then 16p being the obvious big number to aim for"

Sounds like great news, but will await confirmation.

Where have all the TA's disappeared to? Give us an update for today.