Member Info for marik

You've made a statement, I'd like to know what your research came back with. What was the cap?

"Healthcare budgets are not unlimited. " From your research, what was the cap on the reimbursement, market access and health economics?

I would like to see >£25 per share on acquisition (if all goes well).

Just looking at the figures, therapeutic sales in oncology are likely to be around $250B by 2024, (12% CAGR). With an expansion to the market due to "longer treatment cycles and wider patient eligibility", I would certainly agree to the market being closer to the $300B+ mark. Also interesting are the recent oncology acquisitions are in the billions; Array BioPharma ($11B), Five Prime ($1.9B), Grail ($8B), NBE (1.4B) and Immunomedics($21). Partnerships are also rife with Daiichi Sankyo and IDEAYA as good examples with a $3B collaboration for Genmab.

Positive pK data and this could be huge.

The benefits for immunotherapy are great in those that it works in and it's important to note however; the benefit from immunotherapy (i.e. based on OS/PFS with ORR) remains low. In many cases the cancer does not go away rapidly or at all and can take a while (relative to chemo) to work. Systemic damage is something to consider and that makes it a tough decision as you could sustain damage to major organs if the immunotherapy attacks them. It can work in the first instance but the effect can wear off and in some cases the tumour grows back. The *current* path is both chemotherapy and immunotherapy have a place for treating cancer patients and as such immunotherapy and chemotherapy combination is the route that is applied. However, as the poster mentioned that with positive results on preCISION, this is likely to shift more so towards the use of chemotherapy as the first line and would indeed take back a substantial part of the market.

Excellent post.

Nice post poirot. Well pointed out ND.

ND I appreciate the point you make, see my post to Ophidian above. Wait for the phase 1a data and we will see a shift towards talk about phase 2 being sufficient. Even then phase 3 will be mentioned in passing. If you remember sng001 last year after initial data the assumption was that phase 3 wouldn't be required. RM made valid points that they wouldn't require p3 and I personally would have agreed with RM vs FDA. However a p3 was required but with substantial help from the FDA who reduced the number of patients required by 33% in an already small cohort.

If we don't see this as a digital 0 and 1 issue and who is right and wrong. From my perspective, there is a very very strong chance that p2 will become pivotal and p3 will not be required. From yours I guess it would be that there is a small chance it could.

GL

I agree Ophidian that it doesn't / won't require a p3 and I speak from having witnessed many companies in a similar boat. The likelihood is very very small and all depends on the FDAs view. However, not many publicly listed companies and CEOs will shout this before phase 1a data. In the meantime it is best for them to talk about phase 3 at least in passing.

I would add that the moment phase 1a pK data comes through end of year/ early next, we'll see the company emphasis change more and more. If you want further details on my thoughts DM me on twitter and I'll try and expand on this when I have time.

GL

Folks, we are all human and prone to making mistakes. Many of you, in our real lives although mainly positive, at times negatively complain about our friends, neighbours, colleagues and companies we invest in. It simply comes down to the words used, timing and the way we portray ourselves and those we associate with. The current climate makes it highly polarised. Obviously we need to get a balanced view of any company we invest in, but if we come together on this it would prove to be highly valuable.

Wyn especially has done a half decent job on the TA, although not always right, the fundamentals are there with the caveat that it is not gospel and perhaps useful to get a trading perspective on how short term investors think. If you could please continue to post with brevity. Also wyn I'd prefer it if you could update on any thoughts whenever you feel on when the company perhaps is falling short but to counterbalance the positive and where possible with evidence.

No point scoring please and as long as evidence is provided or views are given as your own, I'd like to hear more from the likes of Myles and others.

GLA

Phase 3 can be very big or in some cases relatively small. There is another covid therapeutics company on AIM. It is currently on phase 3 with data by end of year/ Q2 2022. They have less than 700 people in the trial and the FDA reduced it to less than 700 in an effort to accelerate the progress and approval. How many people in phase 3 "if" required?

Both the "if" and future n values will depend on data from phase 1 and 2. Should be fascinating over the next 2 months.

@gje, you'll find the Lecere case in point highly amusing. Seven john does (with TOR and VPN) were find to have made derogatory comments about the CEO and his publicly listed company a few years ago. Although this delayed the prosecution slightly, one of them was made an example of with a $2 million case against him. He crumbled, came clean and gave his name and a public apology for what he did (i.e. he called the ceo i quote "a clown") in the hope that the case would be dropped. Here is what he said; he was working in the construction industry and acted as an individual who had invested on the stock market many years before. He lost a large amount of money and then spent an extortionate amount of time online writing about other companies he thought shouldn't be trading publicly. When interviewed he begged the company not to proceed as he couldn't afford the $5000 legal fees and pointed out he was an ordinary guy on a very low salary in the construction industry.

The moral of the story is that it just delays the inevitable and words that we feel as ordinary people to not be harmful can in a court of law cause have severe repercussions.

I have to agree with goldforefinger you guys are posting some great stuff. I've come across some very good posters on other boards e.g Myles McNulty and Rowka (back in the day) and have been fortunate to find some really great perspectives.

Fruitsnveg, I have to say Merck, Roche, or GSK would be ideal. Investor meetings e.g. events set up by smaller biotechs attended by big names is always a positive. I have colleagues who worked on both sides of the M&A deals. If SNG is giving a talk or presenting data/ results, it's a key to be aware of who is in attendance. We had this for another company I've invested in quite recently. AZ was the main party interested and I noticed three names and one was exceptionally senior. I know from general conversation that big pharma will be making acquisitions of covid related (or pivoting companies) in the biotech space. They will be making acquisitions of covid companies over the next 6 to 12 months.

Good luck all

Indeed @Fruitsnveg. Sanofi acquired Principia Biopharma after the Phase 2 data. If we recall back to the days of the AZ in-licence worth up to $225 million and $7.25m upfront. SNG001 for copd at the time didn't have sufficient patients to reach conclusion and AZ got impatient. However, right now with positive p3 data they would pay through the roof. Governments would want to stockpile due to its broad spectrum and any sign of mutations would increase the amount sold. That's part of the reason they had such a large target price (£50 per share) in one of the last notes I read. I would personally hedge on AZ taking them out (not someone like Sanofi see below), and I'm aware of the BoD mentality to associate with companies that will maximise the benefit of sng001. I'm currently on another BB where the company has multiple partnership deals going on, it's evident to me that there are likely to be take out offers in the future from those they've already had dealings (and especially those that attend their investor meetings). This is one of the reasons why collaborations and keeping good relations is so important - a strong proportion of the acquisitions are by previous or current collaboration partners (due to the in process DD).

[addendum: IMO Sanofi doesn't fit the SNG bill of health as their acquisition of Principa was shortly followed by cuts to the company shortly after]

LLnP, thanks for bringing that attention. Although not the same thing and not really competition, you still make a good point. Imfinzi (durvalumab) which some of you may or may not know about was approved years ago. However the recent study came out with data not today but last week (not BTC but for HCC) in a *combination study* and also last month. Todays data was a for a rarer indication. From the HCC data, the improvement in survival has increased the share price by £3.8B in four days. Note also that it's a combination study and secondly note that this has already had news last month as well.

I would say AVA6000 trial will excel beyond this due to the number of drugs in the pipeline, but for a second let's go along with LLnP's excellent post. An equivalent rise would take Avacta beyond £15 per share (that's not including any further increase from other streams of revenue). The upside is genuinely very big and once the early Pk data is released, it will open up the pipeline for multiple Avacta pro-drugs and the re-rate should be very positive. Combined with revenue from the diagnostics and other partnerships, it derisks the investment to some extent, making the risk reward quite enticing.

I would have liked to have seen the data too @Doc83, but I assume it's the way they are conducting the trial. I think it will be significantly better than 50/50, but that's just my opinion.

What are the chances of that? Let's have a look at the timeline:

I write on SNG board Today @19:16 and here you are mistakenly posting SNG comments here Today@ 20:46. What are the chances of that? I think the Cosmos is speaking to us - no? This is surely a sign. (I am secretly hoping that you blocked me on twitter by accident).

;0)

Woah! What is going on here my friend? It's like the twilight zone with Ndn71 (Egbert / @EggySoldier) being positive about a share. I have misread you so badly on here. Just seen all the nice comments you are making on the Synairgen bulletin board. I've just gone on there after such a long time made a few comments and suddenly here you are all spooked, pressing the wrong buttons etc.

Woah! What is going on here my friend? It's like the twilight zone with Ndn71 (Egbert / @EggySoldier) being positive about a share. I have misread you so badly on the Avacta BB.

5000 doses of sng001 per day at £3000 a pop sold through M&M Enterprises for one year (365 days) makes it 13.65x i.e. £5.475Bn and a sp of about £25 a share. There's no catch there Doc.