Member Info for marik

AgentB, thank you for taking time to read my posting history and checking up on EUA.

Thanks for your time.

@Ripley, I look forward to the T teams next Masterclass.

@Chief, as I said thanks for your input.

@Chief, it depends on what business your in and what stage of your life you are at. If I want to respond to someone I'll do it, if I don't feel like it, I won't. Thanks for the input.

@Chief, I employ others, I don't need to watch my hours.

Your general thesis is off the mark. When we pitch it as a prodrugs vs immunotherapies, then this has to be looked at in terms of inflection points and also the definition of what is preCision (see above). AVA6000 is the lead candidate and will be our major inflection point and driver for the therapeutics arm of Avacta.

Which brings me back to my original response. I am not sure what you are getting at. Is your logic that because the market size is 60 billion and the royalty is 5-10%, that you believe that our revenues will be 3-6 Billion annually and that 30% of a 100 billion for the immunotherapy i.e. 30 billion? You want to say that one is 6 billion and the other is 30 billion? Do you realise that we won’t own the entire market and other complexities in cancer treatment such is first line etc?

"preCISION vs immunotherapies" << even this title is awkward preCision will be in the TMAC.

In response to NDN.

preCision is the substrate that is cleaved when FAP alpha is present in the tumour microenvironment. Very importantly, the preCision chemistry stops a drug such doxorubicin from getting into the cell e.g. AVA6000. Upon interaction with FAP alpha the drug is cleaved and the drug enters the cell. The preCision chemistry is present in TMAC at the linker between affimer and drug/toxin e.g. AVA04. **Both** of these REQUIRE preCision. You can’t have TMAC without preCision and likewise the prodrug AVA6000 is no longer a prodrug when the preCision is removed.

Unpacking some of these comments:

“My point is, effectively ramping preCision ( which we basically license) over TMAC ( which we co own) is ridiculous”

preCision is used in TMAC without it, it’s no longer TMAC.

“My point is, effectively ramping preCision ( which we basically license)”

It is an exclusive license which is *very* important.

“Wind forward 12 months, what will the ramp be then, when(say) AVA021, an immunotherapy, enters the clinic? Chemo is dead, long live immunotherapies?"

This does not have to be a chemo vs immunotherapy issue. The market penetration of either or both if one is given as first line, is dependent on them becoming successful in trial.

“There’s a chance it fails and the immunotherapies succeed. How will the ramps pivot then?"

There is chance that it will succeed and that’s why it’s important that both progress concurrently. But right now one is more advanced than the other and the inflexion points are more so with AVA6000.

"Jesus - TMAC isn’t precision" and “TMAC uses preCision as the FAP-alpha linker”

This latter statement was a change of tune, clearly you’ve understood some of your mistake, but don’t want to hold your hand up. Without preCision, there is no TMAC.

“With preCision it is effectively an exclusive licensee working on a 5-10% royalty”
Now you mention exclusive.

“Non healthy tissues aren’t limited to tumour sites. Fibroblasts occur elsewhere… It’s quite possible for cleaving to work, but the chemo to accumulate in areas of fibroblast production away from the tumour”

The chemistry is very specific to the tumour site. The evidence will have been submitted in the Clinical Trial Application for AVA6000 Pro-doxorubixin back in January.

“HOWEVER! With the added targeting of affimers in TMAC the standard chemo dosing’s efficacy *MAY* be leveraged by the immunotherapy and so make TMAC a goer even if precision fails in isolation.”

Yes it may be leveraged, but the second half of your statement is off as your definition of preCision is lacking. preCision is a substrate present in both TMAC and the prodrug. You may have been trying to suggest two things, I’ll tackle both: if preCision fails in TMAC, then it won’t be entering the cell. If you are implying that preCision doesn’t work in the prodrug, then it is unlikely that it will work in the TMAC.

I'll summarise next...

I think you are on again Tilly.

Likewise to T4G, I've had similar acquisitions experience, I would assume the same as him that their offer has already been tabled and cleared. From experience this is the final leg of the acquisition process. A joint venture would result in Eurasia retaining a small stake and the divvy being quite large, but most likely I am of the opposite view and think that Eurasia and the Buyer will go opposite ways after the sale of substantially all the assets.

The buyer will have provided an MOU with a clear indication of DPA and DD data requisites, financing method and purchasing price. However, the financing method to me is a combination of Jogmec and the companies own capital hence we were told of Tamerlan's background. The purchasing price I believe hasn't been agreed upon until now purely because of the JORC audit not being complete (i.e. you can't put a price on something that you don't know the value of). For Eurasia to have proceeded with a JORC audit, it is clear that they have full intention of buying and I believe the Buyer will have agreed a provisional price which they will have to revise slightly prior to completion. What is fascinating is that EUA are in a non-binding agreement, but the no-shop clause must be missing otherwise they wouldn't be talking about other interested parties. The time taken for DD for something the size of Eurasia would imo be somewhere in the region of 6-12 weeks. So todays RNS is a very big milestone my thoughts are that the JORC audit RNS is next (I'd expect this to be very soon).

I'd love to see the EUA and Buyer Definitive Purchase Agreement. We are literally at the finishing line, I'm itching to pop the cork, but will await the next two RNS!

Good luck all and well done for holding!

p.s. my views on how other PIs will put a final valuation for EUA would be very conservatively somewhere in the region of £2.50 upwards. My own opinion is significantly more than this i.e. £7.50.

£7.50, (£7.00 for sale and £0.50 retained), but you know my opinion is optimistic. Before you have a shorters anxiety fit, we don't have long to find out.

p.s. my views on how other PIs will put a final valuation for EUA would be very conservatively somewhere in the region of £2.50 upwards. My own opinion is significantly more than this.

The buyer will have provided an MOU with a clear indication of DPA and DD data requisites, financing method and purchasing price. However, the financing method to me is a combination of Jogmec and the companies own capital hence we were told of Tamerlan's background. The purchasing price I believe hasn't been agreed upon until now purely because of the JORC audit not being complete (i.e. you can't put a price on something that you don't know the value of). For Eurasia to have proceeded with a JORC audit, it is clear that they have full intention of buying and I believe the Buyer will have agreed a provisional price which they will have to revise slightly prior to completion. What is fascinating is that EUA are in a non-binding agreement, but the no-shop clause must be missing otherwise they wouldn't be talking about other interested parties. The time taken for DD for something the size of Eurasia would imo be somewhere in the region of 6-12 weeks. So todays RNS is a very big milestone my thoughts are that the JORC audit RNS is next (I'd expect this to be very soon).

I'd love to see the EUA and Buyer Definitive Purchase Agreement. We are literally at the finishing line, I'm itching to pop the cork, but will await the next two RNS!

Good luck all and well done for holding!

Thanks alextak, that is very interesting. The lateral flow market as a whole is quite big. With the affimers able to displace a lot of current tech, this is likely to cause a good expansion of the market. There are so many different areas that have not been tapped into purely because sensitivity in a PoC diagnostics hasn't been possible.

Likewise T4G, I've had similar acquisitions experience, I would assume the same as you that their offer has already been tabled and cleared. From experience this is the final leg of the acquisition process. A joint venture would result in Eurasia retaining a small stake and the divvy being quite large, but most likely I am of the opposite view and think that Eurasia and the Buyer will go opposite ways after the sale of substantially all the assets.

An interesting post by RAH on twitter. Thought it would be useful to share here:

"The (entire) endocrine market is huge. 15Bn USD by 2026, growing at 8.1% CAGR. E2 is measured during fertility treatment and current tests lack sensitivity. Again, #AVCT has an assay which is available for this. A market which is not going away."

From my perspective this is spot on, the sensitivity for such tests is key and convenience (i.e. it essentially needs to be an LFT) and I don't see any test capable at the moment. Would be a transformative move.

I am still of the opinion that this will be one of the Japanese auto titans backed by a Jogmec initiative who will buy this. The advantages of the other interested parties helps in driving the bargain for a higher price for the assets.

It's important to note that the communication is official between the "Buyer" and Eurasia and after stating that their DD is complete, the next step would be revising any offers if necessary based on the current assets. This would imply that the JORC has now been completed. For the PI's it means that the next logical piece of information would be the JORC resource audits.

Exciting times ahead!

The latest one is linked below:

https://www.deepverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deepvergeplc_Research_Update_3August2021__FINAL_BGv2.pdf

https://www.deepverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/DeepVergeplc_Research_Update_16_November_2020__FINAL_BGv2.pdf

This will be useful for those interested in the Turner Pope note (short) on Deepverge, mentions Avacta in it as well.