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With so much interest generated for ODX over the last month, (thanks to the rumour report), institutional investors and deep pock retail investors could well be/start buying on the open market.
The expectation of a fund raise about 28 days ago has so far not happened. Since then no fund raise has taken place. Is there certainty of a fund raise tomorrow? Not as far as I'm aware, could anyone "in the know" comment?
There is plenty of money in the coffers and not require an immediate fund raise. The rumour mill unfortunately is worryingly working over time. There is a minimum of £4.5m available and furthermore the Gov won't be receiving any money back as we already know. With ODX so heavily undervalued, the shareprice could move north before any need to discount the share price.
Let's say the fund raise happens in 6 months and the share price is north of 60p. A discount of 20% would put the placing at 48p. That is still a long way north from the current position of under 12p.
Could be a very exciting number of months ahead.
GL
"I hope you don’t disappear from here next wk once the placing is announced."
You seem very certain that it will happen next week? Is there some information you would like to share?
"Placings ideally good for growth,not always ideal for the shareholder tho." for the short term investors that may be true.
But if your timelines are for the long-term, then that I feel is a very different story. If the company grows, then the sp usually grows with it.
"just think a placing is nailed on before any substantive order news arrives."
Placing is a good thing if it is to be used for growth, which it will be. The immanency of the placing has been mentioned numerous times from some private investors - but I have to counter balance this with the official statements from the ODX:
"As per the announcement of 19 January, the Company has significant cash resources. Accordingly, there is no immediate need to raise additional capital and the Company may choose not to proceed". - ODX | 31 January 2022
i.e. no immediate need and they may choose not to raise right now. Even if they do, a) there will be an open offer to accommodate retail investors and b) as mentioned before it is good value for money and an opportunity for rapid growth.
Let's see what the week brings and I have an appetite to invest.
GL
"...but surely in that event,or anything near it, you would assume an mcap much much higher than £70m ?"
Yes, I stated that if after substantial orders arrive, I would expect the mcap to be much higher.
"Where do you foresee such a large order comimg from ?"
The European/RoW that accept CE marking would be a target market. I have used the 750m order as an example (naturally one step is required at a time), but the real point is that Covid is not going anywhere fast. We are in a false bubble in the UK, where as the RoW are still suffering from waves of Covid, hospitalisations and deaths. New VoC are becoming common occurrence and testing is paramount to getting economies moving. ODX are heavily undervalued. With current capacity ODX could be achieving revenues in the region of >£100M if not a lot more.
GL
There has been much made of the potential fundraising. But what happens if there is no news on fund raising this coming week? Of for that matter what happens if there is? So I can put some context on these questions:
For example. After recent CE mark approvals and the FDA EUA approvals on the horizon, if ODX were to gain a big order worth let's say £750M and they had to scale-up, they would increase the inhouse facilities and employees. The share price would shoot up and money would be required ODX to meet the demand. If the contract was payment on delivery, then in that scenario you would need to raise money and have a placing for longer term liquidity. Fundraise/placing shouldn't be seen as a dirty word.
I am happy for ODX to do a placing at any point they see fit. Why, because they are worth substantially more than their £19M market cap. However, what we know from ODX is that they are not desperate for a fund raise and will raise it as and when they need to.
ODX are a growth company, please grow, raise and grow some more. Share price goes up even more and everyone is happy.
Also let us have a look at the company prior to the pandemic when covid-19 was not on the cards. The price was approx. 15p per share and an approx. market cap of £23M. That means that right now ODX are undervalued by 20% below the pre-pandemic levels. Which is astounding considering the following:
- Millions invested in facility expansion
- FDA application for professional-use submitted
- CE marked self-test achieved
- Covid self-test available for 440 million people
- Manufacturing capacity in the order of >2.5 million per month
- VISITECT® CD4 – signing of a supply agreements (for WHO Advanced HIV Disease Initiative)
- Above available >130 low and middle-income countries and successful WHO prequalification
- Advances made in Food Intolerance products using Food Detective
- Advances made in Allergy assays
All of the above tell me that there has been substantial upgrade ODX over the last 2 years. This share is heavily under-priced and is worth of a substantial re-rate upwards in the future closer to the £70M market cap. On orders, this should have an even higher price tag.
So placing or not, ODX is spectacular value for money.
GLA
Omega would be in a stronger position if they had the option to sell via a third party as well. It would give them enough bandwidth to make new agreements and focus on their upcoming professional use FDA approval.
@dominic2002, The Half Year Report stated they were making good progress on the self-test ce-marking [1] and today ODX delivered. They also mentioned very clearly the two applications to the FDA, self-test and professional use [2]. As explained before they are in progress with the professional use.
GL
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1. "Self-test CE-Marking making good progress, with other regulatory approval processes ongoing"
"We are making good progress in the process of seeking CE marking for self-test use for our COVID-19 Antigen test. We have now responded to all questions and requests for further information from our European Notified Body, who will now continue to advance their review of our submission. However, the timeline for this approval remains uncertain."
2. "Our technology partner, Mologic Ltd, continue to progress their submission to the US Food and Drug Administration for Emergency Use Authorisation, for use of the professional-use test under both the VISITECT® and Global Access Diagnostics brands. We understand additional US trial data is required in support of this submission and that this is in process.
A feasibility study as to the process, timelines and likely high-level costs associated with the submission of the VISITECT® COVID self-test for FDA approval is currently underway, although the cost of gaining approval may be prohibitive."
@dominic2002, you've misunderstood the RNS that was released. It comes in two parts.
FDA EUA for professional use is in progress (and not subject to a feasibility study)
FDA EUA for the self-test was to undergo a feasibility study (to assess cost and time)
Two different things
GL
Firstly todays news:
- Omega announces it has successfully CE marked its VISITECT® COVID-19 antigen test for self-test use.
- £14m market cap company
- manufacturing capacity of 2.67 million/month
- now able to sell in large volumes to Europe and other countries accepting CE
- At a small £3 per test, the revenue generated will be hitting 7x the current market cap.
- revenue potential of c. £100m per annum
Clarification of previously held misconceptions:
- ODX has runway with no immediate urge to fund raise
- multiple approvals in the pipeline
- No money owed to DHSC
- FDA application has been made for professional use
- numerous other products (HIV, food intolerance and allergy)
Then to "...referring to the TM article"
Yes, that is what the Captain and TWatcher have mentioned.
The fact that the rumour was spread in the first place is more damaging. ODX are entitled to approach future investors without having to RNS the intention. Having this information makes it inside and an NDA would have been required rumours like this sound alarm bells. Have you questioned this?
As for the accuracy, etc. it remains a rumour until we see the comparison I'll await for someone to post it and we can compare.
Any how great news today and I'm not surprised at the rise and will probably continue to do so if investors realise that a £14M mcap company will be generating revenue somewhere c. £100M/annum.
GL
@CaptainSwag no offence meant. NP if the rumour report is not forthcoming, probably someone else will post it at some point. Until then it remains a rumour.
As for my investment style as you've mentioned it - I'll clarify, it's nothing special: Have conviction in the background research buy and hold.
Just for reference I've commented on this board last year as well, clearly everyone was paying attention.
ODX, is a great company, excellent direction and motivation for a nanocap.
GL with your investment.
"however it is in dispute and with the gov." - I went through it detail yesterday. I offered anyone on the board the opportunity to discuss, but no one came back. There is no way it's going to court and there is no way that ODX are paying a penny back.
Anyway coming back to the point. Until we can all see the the rumour article for what it is and compare it to the RNS, it's still a rumour. @Twatcher & @CaptainSwag, C&P the report and let us all compare the accuracy with the RNS.
GL
Until we can all see the the rumour article for what it is and compare it to the RNS, it's still a rumour. @Twatcher & @CaptainSwag, C&P the report and let us all compare the accuracy with the RNS.
GL
So I can put some context into potential fund raising.
If ODX were to gain a big order worth let's say £750M and they had to scale-up, they would increase the inhouse facilities and employees. The share price would shoot up and money would be required to get to the right position. If the contract was payment on delivery, then in that scenario you would need to raise money and have a placing for longer term liquidity. Fundraise/placing shouldn't be seen as a dirty word.
I am happy for ODX to do a placing considering now that they are worth substantially more than the £14m market cap. Especially after todays approvals and the FDA EUA approvals on the horizon. However, what we know from ODX is that they are not desperate for a raise and will raise it as and when they need to.
ODX are a growth company, please grow, raise and grow some more. Share price goes up even more and everyone is happy.
I'll bet the rumour/insider_info article that no one wants to share, doesn't provide context, or does it @Twatcher & @CaptainSwag.
GLA
It would be good if you share @Twatcher, C&P the report and let us all compare the accuracy with the RNS. Also we can see what's missing and how much of a context it gave to potential up vs down side.
Obviously I'll understand if you don't have time or just want to ignore it like @CaptainSwag ;0)
@CaptainSwag, C&P the report and compare it directly with the RNS.
I am still surprised you are looking at it like it's something positive.
"why do people insist on calling the fund raising discussions a rumour"
It's a rumour/insider_info because:
a) it clearly was insider info (ODX hadn't announced they were in discussions with anyone at that point in time)
b) it was rumour because they got the majority of it wrong (wrong day, week, price, immanency and no context of runway)