Member Info for marik

@CaptainSwag/Twatcher, as you've insisted this is an immediate fund raise, especially with the comments today, I expect to see an RNS tomorrow morning with words to the effect of ODX have a placing done and dusted. Don't back out with a "by friday", if not then it's "in a month".

GL

@unionpacific agreed. This rumour of an imminent placing has been perpetuated since mid-Dec, each time the deadline is missed and no placing is forthcoming, then it's all gifs on the ready on twitter. Complete hysteria created for the fun of it.

Enough of the doubt sewing guys. Until an RNS lands, let's hold off on the rumours.

@pkwendall, there are >2500 deaths per day in the US, >500 in Spain and the list continues. New variants of concern around the corner (no thanks to antivax). I agree with the article, testing is commonplace and will continue to be so.

Selling to Governments and foreign Health Services will naturally put the price lower especially for professional-use. For many places where the sales are directly to large clinics e.g. in Greece, Spain and various other places, the price is far higher than the €2.20 per LFT. The US alone had astronomical prices literally a few months ago.

On that basis I stick with the £300m - £700m

Did the rumour report provide any figures?

GLA

"This canard has been addressed several times, but I put it to rest again for the hard of comprehending..."

LOL

Interesting that Omega Diagnostics has a lot to offer investors, but the true value of a business is understanding the business in parts and as a whole.

finnCap analysts exclude valuation of the lateral flow business from their target price, but put a sum-of-parts valuation for the rest of the business at £105m – £155m. That's >58p per share.
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490686133046554626

Current announcements include CE-mark for self-use that opens the #ODX market to 440million EU citizens.
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490849017084796929

ODX have applied for FDA professional-use test for their VISITECT® COVID-19 Antigen test via partner Mologic.
They are also weighing up FDA self-test application.
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1488898497470423040

Letter from the DHSC indicates Omega are able to use the equipment to allow the business to grow and provides strategic capacity for *future pandemic preparedness*.

https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490786943407472643

ODX confirmed that they are still in conversation with the DHSC

From recent ODX presentations, Lansdown Strategic Capital (LSC) were engaged to expand commercial lead. ODX partnered w DAM Health (focusing on Spain, Mexico and many other countries) and LSC have new partners lined up!

Although some speculation exists on #ODX Gov contract, the contract states nothing is owed to the Government if contract expires. See in depth view:
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1488955162500780036

With 2million production capacity per week, £3-£7 per test, the revenue potential is between £300m - £700m p.a.
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490676203333816325

ODX is not just a covid business the diagnostics arm includes HIV detection and allergy sector (markets in $billions)...
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490662806097694720
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1490091058428104709

Recent RNS, #ODX state:
“…there is no immediate need to raise additional capital…”

i.e. “…no immediate need to raise…” = medium/long term

Many have missed the above points as #ODX have a good runway.
https://twitter.com/marik_investor/status/1488049742710194182

ODX have a revenue stream with new sales coming online in the near future. There is no immediate need for a fund raise and current market cap (<£20m 11p/share) is well under true value. This looks like an opportunity missed that could well hit many multiples this year.

@BIGBangs, ODX have said clearly that they have:

“…no immediate need to raise…” = medium/long term

We know where we stand. Considering the previous rumours started in Dec. were talking about imminent, and they got it wrong, I'm not convinced any placing is happening in the short-term. Even the ones who started this rumour are today not convinced when it is, apparently it is "some time this year".

By which time the share price will be 60p.

The real message is that there are unfortunately a fair few investors who have their information wrong. e.g. didn't know the difference between FDA self-use vs FDA professional-use tests. They were not aware of the burn rate, because they didn't know how to calculate it. This along with a whole host of other errors led them to believe that the placing was imminent on Friday 17th Dec. They got it so wrong.

To refresh the points, I will post them below:

@BIGBangs, the finnCap values the other parts of ODX business at £105m-£155m. Even without the placing news etc. the current share price is under the 58p/share where it should be.

With that being said these rumours were started 2 months ago, which said 17th Dec. NEVER MATERIALISED.

Growth companies have to raise funds to expand, which I am not against, but the recent RNS on self-test approval has opened the market to 440 million EU citizens. I don't think that ODX need to fund raise immediately.

That's a 5x return from these levels to the finnCap valuation.

GL

My bad, it's 58p per share.

Nice financial model there @CaptainSwag. I'll stick with the finnCap valuation (£105m-£155m valuation for the non-covid business of ODX). >55p

GL

Great. So let's go with finnCap as they are reputable. It's not that I don't trust your ability to do financial models, it's just that they are likely to be better. So £105m-£155m valuation for the non-covid business of ODX.

Also @CaptainSwag and @Twatcher could do with seeing your rumour report.

@Doom2 some interesting points.

Where is this mythical placing? The rumour report set in motion from comments in mid-Dec, haven't formalised a placing. The comments being made was "imminent". In fact there is zero need right now for a placing. What happened? Could you send me a copy?

finnCap has this at >58p per share WITHOUT the covid-19 business.

GL

Figures you may have seen could well be lower, but I will stick with mine for now. However, in the bigger picture you are right, it's still huge numbers compared to the current market cap of <£20m.

Some great posts @calderkate

They are selling for much higher to the public (some parts of Europe the prices are much more). But I'll stick with my price point.

No it is similar to the timing sense I had for the CE-marking self-use test approvals.

GL

With £3-£7 per test, the revenue potential is between £300m - £700m p.a. I believe that Omega could easily do that. Let the orders flow.

I am sensing that FDA approval could land at any moment. Fingers crossed for an intraday RNS.