Member Info for Margaret365

First post on LSE jonesy88 and you have chosen Seraphine. Maybe you are somehow in the know?! Made.com is discretionary spend, inthestyle has been whacked by the MM not traders, anything that doesn’t hit anticipated growth numbers is being aggressively punished, also turned to a small loss. Seraphine has no doubt been hit with lower growth and made some rookie mistakes, but it has seen decent expansion in North America which will likely continue, cost pressure will ease and sector negativity will reverse at some point. It’s niche and still small enough to navigate with agility. There maybe some more pain from mm games if the numbers are not what are hoped for on the 28th but this will get taken out at some point, well north of the current SP. Institutional holders are sitting tight and Harwood Capital increased last week.

Not me Karlo, I still just have my initial punt of 1.5% which I’m happy with for now. It’s been very quiet, so nice to see some new skin in the game, maybe the start of some long overdue momentum from these depressed levels. This is seriously undervalued.

Still sitting with a valuation of £16m. Little activity, but any meaningful volume will move this in either direction as very little float to buy but at the same time seemingly few buyers. I guess it’s wait and see for the next update to see if the supply chain has begun to resolve its issues and margin has steadied. From my experience, containers are moving more freely and the cost of shipping has come down, albeit still 4 to 5 times what it was. Textile inflation appears benign when compared with the wider basket, so cost to make the garments should be ok. It’s about the shipping and sales costs, also cost of living squeeze. Still, the company is small and agile compared to big players like Boohoo and ASOS which must be having a nightmare, the share prices are reflecting this concern. Seraphine is niche and the demand for maternity wear will be there regardless as it is seen more as a necessary and important spend for women. This is a waiting game on this one, retail negativity will change at some point, this one is all set for a re rate at substantially higher levels from here.

Ok so it was Harwood Capital that took 5% today…..from whom we don’t know. These guys specialise in taking Companies from public to private, so this maybe play here. Does not surprise me as the stock is just too cheap. Not sure why you would let 5% go at 31.5p, this has to be 65p plus, and possibly £1 right now even with the headwinds. Private then refloat in a few years……churn, burn, repeat!

Looks like a sizeable sum of shares has changed hands, most likely agreed between two of the larger holders or indeed a new buyer agreeing a deal as the MM haven’t reacted.

It’s a bit perplexing as they were sticking there hands in there pockets a £2. Either they think it goes lower again or they for some reason are unable to buy. Online retailers are cheap currently for good reason but suitors will be looking, more heat with THG today. Seraphim is undervalued as of now and significantly undervalued based on a 2-3 year time line.

Looks like a single punter on Tuesday took the 1% stake. It moved the price accordingly and volume is now all but nothing. I would suggest this will be the trend over the near term, those with stock will generally sit to see what news comes next, hopefully it will be a little more positive. I’m pleased to see that we won’t be unduly hit by the recent devaluation in Sterling due to overseas earnings and therefore should have some shelter from exchange risks on Far East purchases.

1.4% of the total share capital traded today, reasonable amount when you look a the limited loose change shares not held by the institutions. Let’s hope that it’s directors buys and an RNS drops.

I would have thought 65p is fair value currently until we know more, valuing the company at 30m. It’s conservative based on the slowdown and the cost headwinds. However, it was bought by the PE guys for 50 million just over a year ago and then spun for a ludicrous 150m a few months later. The market tends to get these valuations right over time, however it’s far too cheap currently.

Relax Karlo! It’s a share discussion bulletin, I’m sharing an opinion and actions based on my thoughts. You don’t have to acknowledge, you can choose to ignore. No need to get worked up….not worth it. Good luck with your buy.

I suspect if you tried to buy 1% now it would move northwards somewhat. Agree with what you say but no larger holder has sold significantly as no notification of going below 5%. I suspect they are licking wounds for the capital loss but have the same views as us and see value on a medium term view. Don’t forget they bought at the IPO price less than a year ago seeing value at that level. Much of the headwinds were already apparent, they are just lasting longer than was thought.

That said, will buy more if they drop it again, would happily accumulate circa 5% as an under the radar buyer. Fits very nicely with my Company and can see some synergy.

I’ve bought another 0.3% so now hold 1%. Bought from the low to 28 ish pence which has moved us back to 29.5p so I don’t thinnk there is much floating about and certainly non of the large shareholders wanting out at these depressed levels to mop my buys up. Very happy with the 1% I have…..I will sit on these now as it’s just too low even with the possibility of cash raise or being taken private again. The market for this Company as a high end niche player is growing, it will still cost to get the market share but £100m sales really does look very achievable in the medium term.

Agreed, there is obviously a float to sell. I own a similar business and the headwinds are difficult currently, the exchange rate is also not helping. However, whilst the IPO price was too high, this is now valued at £14m. It’s priced for a medium to long term economic issue with potentially a raise required at a later date. They are small enough to navigate there way through this, demand will remain regardless of the financial squeeze due to the bespoke nature of the product. This is turning over £44m, I see £100m in 3-5 years and a likely EBITDA of at least 10%. A PE of 15 would bring it back to its IPO price of £150m. This is not a start up, it’s been around for a while and is in a good market place. It may need some more cash to realise it’s objectives fully but it’s a good 2-3 yr punt. I only worry it gets taken out on the cheap.

Well I’ve just bought 0.7% of the company if that helps?!

Difficult conditions that will improve. Showing ok sales growth, niche player, small and nimble enough to navigate the way forward. PE of 5 is too low, could well get swallowed up as a very nice bolt on.

Expect good results. Phoenix with there substantial 30% now starting to apply the pressure. They bought in for the turnaround. Covid has given a substantial boost to revenue in both funerals and crematoria fees. Internal costs and procurement being brought under control, many of the original team who were complacent with the gravy train now departed.

I agree, the results will be positive and as such the current share price has us at a PE ratio that is too low. The debt is high but more than manageable, a re organisation is in hand and operational improvements appear to be gaining traction.

Is it me or is there nothing really new to what's already been said. Important is that commencement of circa 17k bopd is imminent. The 90% value destruction should in my mind have take care of what is now widely known

Hi Bigsmoke. Yes I was with you with Amerisur and I'm feeling the same pain with HUR that was felt prior to the takeover. All the same questions regarding value and lack of understanding why the market has it at such a low PE. The infrastructure was different and I thought the oil transport pipeline was its big plus. With Hur it's a different picture, we are relying on 2 wells with water cut issues. However the production upside over time and resource structure is fundamentally different. It is looking far far too low based on current production......its the niggling water cut that's hurting this one. Sentiment is poor with some very deep wounds. I would rather lose the lot than miss out if this turns as indeed Amerisur finally did. It went cheap but I made a profit on what looked as bad as this and it all changed very quickly.