Member Info for MarekQ

@ Mando

Thanks for your thoughts which I'm in agreement with.

My post was more focused on the trigger to reverse the share slide. My original thesis, Mid Oct, was this share price undervalues the company in my opinion (£3-£3.5bn), so buy, then they smash Xmas trading, happy days.

My original expectations were ;
Normal market bounce SP +10-20%
Positive Trading Update SP +5-10%
New Chairman Announced SP 5-7.5%
Q4/Full Year Figures Positive SP +5-10%

At the time share price was £2.25-£2.45 so that put my target as £2.80-£3.30. Both of which currently seem a long way off.

@ pokerchips

Nice Quotes, I also like this one from Keynes

"The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" ;)

The last 2 weeks sub £1.95 has left me with so many questions on this SP.

Everyone is expecting a positive trading update that will "smash the numbers" as MM told us at GQ yet the SP is bobbing along the bottom.

Q3 trading update confirmed that full year revenues will be in line with guidance, +35% - +40%, yet the SP is still bobbing along the bottom.

Now if the expectation of bumper sales is already known, and hitting full year targets is expected, this would already be factored into the current SP.

The governance issue for me is a red herring as it is unchanged from IPO, and it wasn't an issue that prevented the SP shooting to £8.

So, let's say Monday we get a glowing trading update, best ever, well what does that put on the SP ? 10p/12p
Last years trading update jumped the SP 8% but closed the day only 3% up and by Fri was below the previous Fri close. And that was when the company was still very much a market darling.

So much as I hope I'm wrong, I can't see our salvation coming from the trading update.

So then it down to the Q4/Full Year figures and whether the market is prepared to believe/accept the EBITDA figures produced and whether they detect cash-burn.

I'm in THG for the long haul as I believe at £2ish there are very few opportunities to match it, but like I said at the beginning, so many questions.

1m+ shares traded in first hour !!!
Only 3.8m traded full day yesterday.
Gonna be a busy day !!!

£1.78

@ danl90

I don't disagree with anything in your post, but on the MM shareholding it's listed as 14.99% as at 1st October here ;

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/retail/lse-thg/thg-shares#ownership

Figures back to 4th Nov Consensus.

Assume it was a server/maintenance issue.

https://www.thg.com/analyst-consensus/

Just noticed tonight that the analyst consensus page on the THG website has reverted to the figures at 7th May .
Previously the figures were dated 4th November.

The May Revenue figure is £2.1681bn, £46m lower than the prev Nov figure.
The EBITDA figure now is £200, £12 higher than the prev Nov figures.

Not sure what to make of it, perhaps new analyst consensus figures coming ????

Very low volumes so far today.
Almost 3 hours in and volume less than 1m.
Thurs and Fri were both 8m for the full day.
Strange.

Rule 1 of Business:

If there is a serious fcuk up, ALWAYS blame the new guy.

It was ever thus lol

@ unhooked
You, shouldn't 'stay away', all considered views should be welcome on this board if only to prevent it becoming an echo chamber.

With regard to any broker ratings you should have a very, very large container of salt nearby when reading them.
With regard to JP Morgan ;

1 June 21 Rated £13.88 MC £17bn SP £6.23
26 July 21 Rated £7.08 MC £8.5bn SP £5.81
5 Nov 21 Rated £2.36 MC £2.8bn SP £2.03

Basically they are full of shyte. There is no reason to expect that his current 'target' is any more relevant than his 'target' of 5 months ago that was 600% higher.
Also Marcus Diebel is the JPM analyst and he subscribes to the view that FY21 Revenues will be £2.18bn - £2.24bn. Thats up 35%-39%. Although it should be noted those figures are from 4th Nov.

@ste2000

I did think when I read the Times article, if the best they have got is a 1 year old story about a US lawsuit and the fact that they are, unsurprisingly, looking for a new PR Company then there can't be much to worry about with THG.

From MM's position I would be furious if I was paying a healthy retainer to an Ex Times Editor for PR management, when most of the bricks coming my way were coming from the Times journos.

I'm reading it that THG has been the victim of a whispering campaign within City circles over the last few months.

Start of Sept £6.50ish, Start of Oct £4.50ish and not much above £2 at start of Nov with no publically available info to justify the collapse. As someone has mentioned earlier on this board, NUMIS were stupid enough to put these whispers in writing.

THG Board are then made aware of the client note from NUMIS, and their Legal team are straight on it.
"Irregularities in Accounting" allegation withdrawn but THG keep pushing and we are now at the FCA.

The withdrawal of the allegation is to protect NUMIS from legal action, as they would have to back it up with evidence. It won't however dispel the belief (if it exists) within the City that there is something shady about THG's accounts.

It is for this reason that I can't see a huge upside to the SP from this sorry episode, much as I would love to see it as I'm up to my nuts in THG.

@windows345

You gotta be joking !!!!
I assumed it was illegal to have a blue UT on THG.
Onwards and upwards

WTF
Just need the usual 1m UT after close to leave the Red for the day.

Move along please, no market manipulation to see here ffs

@ Hosai

An additional problem is that Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays have been ****e as well lol ;)

And how many years in investment banking have you done?

No need to get all defensive, I would assume its the same number of years as you.

I will take your word for it that no company have ever made a detailed pitch to a potential £100m investor.

They probably just said "you've seen the Q3 statement, invest if you want, we don't give a fcuk either way" that must be how these deals get done ;)

Judging by the share price maybe that is how MM does it lol

@ danl90

Before T Rowe stumped up their £100m they will have had a sit down with MM and/directors.

They will have received the full pitch re sales projections, growth, deals in the pipeline etc etc.

Now some of this will have been true, some prob BS, and some wishful thinking but to say they have the same access to info with their £100m that I have with my £25 is incredibly naive.

THG have already appointed a team of Head hunters to find a new Chairman.

He needs to be a City Heavyweight and part of the old boys club to allay governance issues in the market. He can rebuild the companies reputation within the market while MM as CEO gets on with growth and hopefully profitability.

Top 25 shareholders own 81.8% of the company

Matthew Moulding 14.99%

Sofina Société Anonyme 8.02%

Balderton Capital (UK) LLP 7.95%

SoftBank Group Corp., Asset Management Arm 6.61%

Jupiter Fund Management Plc 6.41%

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. 5.02%

BlackRock, Inc. 4.55%

Capital Research and Management Company 3.8%

Goldman Sachs Group, 3.38%

Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America - College Retirement Equities Fund
2.79%

J O Hambro Capital Management Limited 1.87%

QH Oil Investment LLC 1.8%

Barclays PLC Private Banking & Investment 1.77%

Norges Bank Investment Management 1.59%

Adelphi Capital, L.L.P. 1.56%

GIC Pte. Ltd. 1.55%

The Vanguard Group, Inc. 1.43%

Dominic Murphy 1.19%

FMR LLC 1.11%

Aviva Investors Global Services Limited 0.91%

Royal Bank of Canada 0.86%

Lazard Asset Management LLC 0.86%

Credit Suisse 0.75%

Swedbank Robur Fonder AB 0.59%

UBS Asset Management 0.47%