Member Info for MarekQ

@mervvv

The 400 figure is the target for FY22

"At the time of IPO, the company shared that they had secured GBP215m of total contracted value from the circa 20 clients. This excluded any potential revenue share that is part of the company model. With the number of websites contracted up nearly 4 four times, the secured contracted revenue could now be over GBP800 million," Liberum added.

Wow.
Can anyone shed any light on how he has arrived at these figures ? They seem much healthier than the impression you get from THG updates. Are they from the full duration of the 5/10/15 year contracts signed ?
There are expected to be about 300 websites live by the FY21 Update.

@lawriee
Thank you for sharing this

@Cavendish3
MarekQ the leader of the shorters

Not me mate, I'm inn deep on THG and currently 10% underwater. I'm just trying (unsuccessfully) to provide some balance to the prevailing view on here that THG release results an BOOM sp is £3+.

Good luck with your purchase this morn, wish I was entering now £1.85. What 'pleasant surprises' are you expecting to see in FY21 Update Rev/EBITDA/Free Cash

@hosai

Of course cash is an issue, they are about to make a nett loss of about £100m.

"ICSM has issued a warning to suppliers to The Hut Group (THG) to ensure their lines of credit to the firm’s many businesses are secure."

Nothing vague about that.

@fordm

We all want this share to rocket but being realistic here's my 2p worth.

FY21 Trading Update ;
Rev £2.3bn EDITDA £180m SP +9-12%
New credible Chairman SP +4-7%
Ingenuity passing 300 Live SP +3-5%

So hopefully a bounce 16% - 24%

So at current SP (£1.85) that would give £2.15 - £2.30
(Though a lot can happen till next Mon close)

For the rest of the year giving the headwinds (inflation, interest rates, cost of living squeeze) another 25% SP gain would seem reasonable if growth continues. But there are dozens of moving parts over the course of a year.

Just my opinion, not worth very much as I've been wrong at every turn with this share.

@gregpeck7

I would love to think that MM had used some of his own cash to 'buy' an insider who can tell him where the bodies are buried. Fanciful I know, but there would be a bloodbath among the snorters.

This story now seems to be gaining traction, first The Times, then The Guardian and now The Telegraph.

Just a word of caution to those predicting a sudden jump to £3+. The only new information in this story is contained in the headline, the FCA have contacted THG asking for information to back up MMs claim that they were subject to a concerted short attack. It should be noted that NUMIS have had no contact with the FCA following their decision to report themselves (nearly 2 months ago).

Granted increased scrutiny of short positions may encourage some to close, or deter others from opening new positions but I just don't see a mass rush for the exit.

I would love to see a 50%+ jump this week, but expect a moderate rise to results of hopefully 15-20%.

Hoping my pessimism is misplaced and we all get to enjoy the next 6 trading days.

May as well have a go ;

Open : £ 1.96
Close : £ 2.01

@ nomlungu

"It is understood SOME of the data shared by THG with the FCA related to trading patterns on 12 October"

Not exclusively related to 12th October.

"It is understood some of the data shared by THG with the FCA related to trading patterns on 12 October, the day of a large share price drop. The data handover was first reported by the Sunday Times."

12th October - an interesting day

Prev Close £4.3680
Opening £4.2720
Close £2.8500
Change -34.75
Volume* 8.31million

*Volume figure taken from Investing.com so won't include after hours trades.

35% is a massive drop on a relatively small number of shares. I can only guess that MM has evidence that large quantities of shares had been borrowed pre the capital markets day ready for a coordinated dump.

Guardian also running with the Sunday Times story ;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/09/thg-shares-data-on-claims-of-irregular-trading-of-its-shares

Not too sure what is the point of this action by THG.

There will be NO "smoking gun' unless MM has a Private Investigator on the case who has got pics of Trader X meeting Reporter Y for lunch on a Friday, with Trader X then taking a big short position before Reporter Y runs a negative story on Sunday.

This strikes me as a continuation of MMs persecution complex, perfectly illustrated in the GQ interview. He firmly believes the shorters are out to get him and he seems to take it personally.

He may well believe that THG is currently worth £8bn but there is a world of people who don't agree with him, some of whom have bet against the company.

A grown up company shouldn't waste time and energy fretting about its share price, The BOD should just concentrate on their jobs, post excellent updates and the share price will rise accordingly. Depressed share price is only a problem for THG if they are planning on fund raising by share dilution !!!!!

MM comes across as a kid getting bullied at school who is told by his dad to punch the bully in the face. Well he has punched him now, the bully can either leave him alone or beat him up more.

For clarity, I'm inn deep on THG, and happy to hold for the long term.

I just take it from the Total Voting Rights RNS from 1st December ;

Accordingly, the total number of voting rights in the Company as at 30 November 2021 is 1,220,897,947. This figure may be used by the Company's shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company under the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

So 1,220,897,947 x £1.912 = £ 2.334 billion

If my method is wrong I'm happy to be corrected

@hosai

Agree with your posts but just for clarity Market Cap at close today is £2.34bn

TR-1 Goldman Sachs cutting stake slightly

@Indy

If those figures are real, he is saying
"1.2×2022 Sales = 3.4bn"
So 2022 sales are 2.8bn.
Wowsers, all analysts forecasts are 2.2bn.

That really would be smashing the numbers !!!!!

@rich160

My valuation pretty much is the current Enterprise Vale, but I wouldn't argue over half a billion either way if someone felt strongly.

I tend to ignore analyst share price targets as they are where the share price may go in the future, the Barclays target of £6.30 gives a market cap of £7.6bn for a company worth £2bn just 3 weeks ago. The Liberum target of £7.50 is MC over £9bn yet JPM value it at less than £3bn. Like I say you pays your money and take your choice.

I was interested in danl90's opinion of 'fair value' today, with the info we have available today. £3bn market cap with EBITDA £180m gives a multiple of 17 which seems fair enough to me.
THG has a lot of uncertainty around it at the moment and that will continue to depress the SP until answers are giving eg. Spin Off, Governance, EBITDA, Ingenuity, Softbank, Cashburn, Going Private etc etc.

@danl90

I currently value THG at about £3bn (SP£2.47), based on ;
Beauty - Sound Business, profitable, growth
Nutrition - Sound, margins squeezed, growth
Ingenuity- Great Concept, unprofitable, potential.

I'm assuming that FY revenue will meet consensus, thought EBITDA may be questioned and Ingenuity will still have more questions than answers.

Can I ask what you believe to be a 'fair valuation' giving all info currently available as I'm usually in agreement with the views you express on this board.