Member Info for MarekQ

@danl90

Ah Yes, had forgot the Softbank deal was last May, so within 12 months, £5.96, Happy Days, MC £8.1bn.

@ Insider
I was merely repeating from my previous posts. I clearly laid out my 10 reasons this would go private on 31st Jan on this board. I like everyone else here want to achieve the maximum price possible for my shares.

Hope we all get to enjoy the SP takeoff this week.

@danl90

FWIW I think Softbank are most definitely still INN.

When I originally seen 3 PE firms involved and MM working with Goldmans I figured a carve-up with THG left as a holding company for 80% Ingenuity, On-Demand, Hotels etc.

Now the tone has shifted towards a buyout and relist on NYSE, I'm thinking ;
MM + Friends (Inc SB) + PE Cash = Buyout Offer

Interesting times, but no idea on what price to expect if/when offer comes. I've previously posted on here that I expected £2.80 - £3.20 going to £3.50 at a push.

Initial offer could be anywhere from £2.50 - £6.00 I suppose.

Morning all THGers, this weekend feels a lot more relaxed than any in the last three months.
Enjoyed reading through all the posts from yesterday and today, some optimism for us at last.

We may not get an actual offer for our shares from all this PE activity as it may be that THG plc ends up as just a shell company (though a special Dividend is possible/likely).

BEAUTY gets spun off and sold at x2 FY21 Rev = £2.2bn
NUTRITION spun & sold at x2 FY21 Rev = £1.3bn
INGENUITY spun & 20% sold at Option = £1.2bn

So THG would still be a PLC which owns THG On-Demand, Hotels etc, 80% of Ingenuity and about £5bn in Cash less whatever debts/liabilities it was carrying (c£800m) pre carve up.
I don't know what equity the properties have but this shell company would seem have a worth of at least £8bn, which equates to a SP of about £6ish.

All my figures are just back-of-a-fag-packet to illustrate what the new set up could look like.

Good Luck to all LTH and enjoy the next weeks, you've earned it !!!

@ OhhAhhCantona

Thanks for your analysis, I hadn't given much thought to a timescale really, but your timeline would make sense.
Yearend would provide audited figures for each division and perhaps make due diligence more straightforward for a trade sale.
I had suggested in a post yesterday that £2.80-£3.20 may be tempting to II's while the price is down here at £1.30ish, but £3.50 would be a clincher imo, gives a market cap of £4.8bn (based on 1.37bn shares via THG website)

Hi Poker,

I don't expect to see any directors buys, I was inferring that by buying more shares they would scupper my thesis that there have been no directors buys as they are on the 'inside' working on the deal at present.

Not sure it's this week, but below are the TEN reasons I believe THG will go private in the near future. I'm probably wrong (again) but just wanted to lay out my basis for believing it will happen. Feel free to disagree.

1) Share Price Collapse : In the absence of fraud/balance sheet black holes the 80%+ drop in SP should attract interest in any company.

2) MM's GQ Interview: clearly stated the possibility of taking it private.

3) The Times and Bloomberg have both reported that the possibility of going private has been discussed.

4) Last director Buys 5th November (SP £2)

5) Last II buys 23rd Nov despite SP hitting all time lows. (I'm ignoring BR & GS as they are now outside the tent ****ing inn)

6) No new Chairman. Three months after announcing search and no media speculation about approaches etc

7) Limited Scope of Q4 update. No news on Beauty Spin Off, Softbank etc. I feel MM has stopped playing the try-to-please-the-City game.

8) 3 Month Radio Silence from BOD. Only statutory RNS for last three months while share plunge continued. No measures to stop the bleeding.

9) Steve W Margin Call. MM must be seething at seeing Steve getting 'potentially' £30-£40m wiped off his personal wealth by, in his opinion, shorters.

10) MM's Mums Letter. Yes Mrs Ms letter to the Times increases my belief that THG goes private. I can only think she wrote that klunt at the Times as she could see the toll this was taking on her son.

There you go, we probably get a RNS tomorrow with every director buying, and I've just wasted my time typing that out.

Thanks for posting Hosai.
Just the usual fare fron the Sunday Times.
And people wonder if MM the 'gym bunny' will take it private ???
If its possible to do it (financially) then consider it done.

Hi Dan

You have explained these points very well previously but we were probably around £2ish when we last discussed this. Yet here we are 35% lower.

I totally agree that anyone's view on the offer will be coloured by their buy inn price.
If an investor bought in for £1million at IPO they have 200,000 shares. Today those shares are worth £253k. Now of course you want £1m+ back, but realistically how long is that going to take ??
Would it take considerably longer if MM walked away ???
If you were offered £750k (@£3.50) on Monday morning, that may be a very tempting offer.

You are one of the serious posters on here whose opinions I like to hear along with Mando, Poker, Cantona and others.

Today, in your opinion, how likely is it, that an attempt will be made to take THG private ? 20%? 40%? 60%?

I've just been tallying up, the average closing price since Nov 1st (3 mths) is £ 1.8573.

After the GQ interview I found an article from The Times that gave the average price paid for PE buyout of european listed companies was SP +42% with the highest at SP +72%. And of course every takeover is different but just for ballpark ;
Sp + 42% = Private £ 1.265 + £ 0.531 = £ 1.796
SP + 72% = Private £ 1.265 + £ 0.911 = £ 2.176
Avg SP + 42% = Priv £ 1.857 + £ 0.78 = £ 2.637
Avg SP + 72% = Priv £ 1.857 + £ 1.337 = £ 3.194

So there's some figures to make you cry / cheer !!!

Cheers Commonsense,

From Fridays RNS ;
which are beneficially owned by Steven Whitehead (who is neither a PDMR nor a person closely associated with such a PDMR).

I'm sure someone posted here an email response from IR yesterday, stating that the RNS was for "technical reasons". Was the technical reason to show SW at arms length from any discussions, and therefore publicly stating he is NOT an insider, and therefore free to trade.

@soleman1

Christ I hope the god we DONT see any directors buys next week !!!!

Our ticket out of this recent chitshow is THG going private.

There has been ZERO support for the SP from directors or the large II's over the last month even though we have hit sub £1.20 from £8 high. Very very unusual.

In my view there can only be 2 reasons for this ;

1) The directors and II's don't believe there is any value in buying the shares at £1.20ish OR
2) The directors and II's are unable to purchase at present as they are 'inside' an ongoing deal to go private.

Now I don't know about you but I'm fukked if its option 1 so it better be option 2.

What a chitshow this has been.
Down 20% on a solid FY21 Update.
EBITDA miss by c£8m wipes £450m of Market Cap.
That's one hell of a multiple !!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry last part should read ;

Therefore the existing deal with THG would surely effect any sale price, as the parties would be agreeing to a £44m annual cost for say 20 years (£880m) and the buyer would be surviving on 4% margin.

If I've read this wrong I'm happy to be corrected

With regard to the often repeated intention to spin off Beauty as a seperate division or indeed a outright sale I can't see how it makes sense on margins.

Beauty generates £1.1bn revenue with say an 8% margin (£88m), if Ingenuity charges 4% of revenue generated by websites (£44m) then the separated division is an entity with just a 4% margin. THG would need these revenues to keep Ingenuity looking healthy.

Therefore the existing deal with THG would surely effect any sale price, as the parties would be agreeing to a £88m annual cost for say 20 years (£1.76bn) and the buyer would be surviving on 4% margin.

If I've read this wrong I'm happy to be corrected

@fordm

My son is 11, last year I put £1,000 into an account for him to trade in companies he likes (Google, EA, Microsoft, Roblox etc) to try and teach him early about investing because I was never taught the benefits/pitfalls.

"I will not sell at a loss, I would rather watch this company burn and then lose my money, then I will sit back."

If he made this statement about one of HIS losers, I would close the account instantly as he would be too emotional/immature for investing and try him again in a few years.

As I said he is 11 !!!

Personally I've always felt that the "governance issues" were something of a red herring. Something that could be used to muddy the waters when writing negative articles. No material facts regarding the "issues" had changed from IPO.

1) MM Dual Role = Search for new Independent Chairman started Mid October.

2) MM Special Share = THG announced special share to be relinquished as part of step up to Main Market.

3) MM Landlord/Tenant Conflict = I expect this Omega deal to be the start of MM divesting his properties connected to THG.

The "issues" have now been addressed with no positive impact on the SP. So were they rely issues in the first place ???????

THG website has updated the revenue & EBITDA figures, dated 10th Jan, when SP dropped 7.6%

Consensus Revenue ;
Nov £2.214bn
Dec £2.201bn
Jan £2.197bn

Consensus EBITDA
Nov £188.5m
Dec £176.2m
Jan £174.8m

Not huge drops in the figures, and of course they won't matter if the numbers get 'smashed' on Tuesday.
But the revenue estimate has dropped by £17m since the last trading update and EBITDA drops by £13.6m, which seems a lot of £17m revenue.

Yeah Ive got the same message Mando

Agreed. 1.8million in 5 hours is very light

After today I'll take any bullishness I can get ;-)