Member Info for mapper99

Chilting

Looks like the market has started to agree with us. Shorters may start to reduce like Kintbury did on Friday. Let's hope so!

Q1 results were OK from what I can see. At this rate Ocado Retail for the year will be £2538M. With International CFCs opening this year adding ~£120M and the reduction of Capital costs both in UK and overseas of ~£300M, I expect EBITDA for the Group to be ~£820M. That would suggest a Market CAP of £12.3B and an S/P ~£15

Not too bad for one year.

I have been tracking shorters for a while now.
This is the top of my list, based on short tracker reports. The total I have is 22.84% which suggests that Euroclear have more information than me. Or maybe they just assume that shorters leave completely after a given number of years.

5.27%
23/3/2023 22.84% Last Change
Lone Pine Capital LLC 0.47% 5/6/2020
AQR Capital 0.49% 7/6/2022
Whale Rock Capital Management 0.60% 8/3/2023
Coatue Management 0.30% 17/3/2020
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company 0.49% 31/1/2020
GMT Capital Corp 0.49% 6/11/2019
World Quant 0.48% 23/7/2019
Marshall Wace LLP 0.49% 8/10/2018
Parvus 0.47% 12/6/2018
Hunt Lane Capital 0% 17/5/2018
Kairos 0% 17/5/2018
UBS 0.42% 17/5/2018

My understanding is that Euroclear may be counting all the companies who have ever shorted ocado. Once they go below 0.5% they essentially get fixed at that value. As we have seen recently a few shorters have popped back above the threshold. Others may well have returned all their shares to those they borrowed them from. Although it is probably not entirely accurate, on the whole I suspect it is quite representative of the level of shorting and comparisons month on month are quite revealing.

Hope that helps Stupmy

I only use the public access

Try this link

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:2&year=eq:2023&limit=0&search=1

and sort the data descending by Percentage. Ocado is towards the bottom of the first page.

According to Euroclear the figure at the end of February was 15.52% and given the number of increases by shorters that we can see so far this month, I would expect that to be higher when we get too see the figure for the end of March. Hopefully when the Q1 figures come out on Tuesday the improvement in sales for Q1 will start the turn around of the S/P.

Looking back the announcement was only made last June. Does that mean a 9 month build time. That would be extraordinary

Is that the one in Aurora. I had that pencilled in for completion June 2024

Good News. Looks like that will be the biggest CFC built to date

a couple of days we will get an update to the short position. We may see a BR reduction then

One of the companies listed for BlackRock is the hedge fund currently holding 0.7% of stock. Maybe they have reduced their short and are now going long with OCDO. That would be a good sign. Noticed that D1Capital Partners reduced their short on Friday. Shorters are starting to leave I think. Systematica may have just got in at the wrong time, like they did back in 2017.

Chilting

My calculation is that half of the shorters are underwater. Blackrock is down about £48M. AQR £26M. Whale Rock still down £5M. Where do you get the 5.87% from?

Good to see shorters are starting to burn. Let's see which shorter exits over the next few day (Varenne, Whale Rock and Blackrock most likely)

Looking at the financial situation by the end of FY23, I expect Ocado group to have a positive EBITDA of circa £800M.
This is based on only working on 12 International CFCs over this year compared to 19.6 in FY22. Also they will have 22.4 International CFCs open over the course of this year, compared to 12.8 in FY22. The problems over the last year were due to over capacity in the UK and high building costs.
The other problem presently is a larger number of shorters appearing above the 0.5% line, some of which are trying to recoup big losses. There is a bit of a feeding frenzy at the moment.

The data period goes right back to 2012 so I think you are mistaken. But as you said everyone to their own beliefs/strategy. From the share price rise just now looks like at least one shorter has panicked.

GLA

My impression is that most shorters have lost money.
This website seems to agree.
https://shorteurope.com/history_company.php?selskapsnavn=Ocado%20Group%20Plc&land=united_kingdom

I suspect day traders have had better luck.

Valueplay

As one of those LTHs I agree. My first buy was back in Feb 2011 when I bought 2000 shares @ 243p. A year later they were 103p. So I bought another 4000. I know all about the volatility here. And how influential shorters have become. However most have seemed to have lost money.

M

According to my calculations most of the visible shorters are underwater right now, in spite of their attempts to force the price down.
Current Price 676.2
Profit Break Even
Gladstone £3,713,279.77 748.75
Kintbury -£674,874.25 664.69
DE Shaw -£3,125,548.35 628.27
AHL -£27,351,654.37 391.87
AQR -£34,217,625.57 -152.43
Blackrock -£54,557,636.02 -295.73

Looks like it

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/omega-diagnostics-signs-testing-deal-25344282

Maybe we are the preferred bidder for ODX CD4 business. We did acquisition with them before in 2018?