Member Info for ManoleteCustomer

Ignore that stupid senior moment - of course we can attend the GM. Anyone else going? I’m tempted to go.

Can we attend the GM?

Do you have the nPV of the future income stream from “settled & paying cases” discounted at SONIA + whatever the banks margin currently is?

Though I’d obviously like to see movement I don’t think we’ll get anything substantial until we see some half year results showing a small profit, and after that some real numbers on what the AI tie up means.

I do think we’ve got the potential for a 10x or a 100x re rate here.

The thing needs a process to profit which is scaleable without too much further overhead and an AI based advertising model would appear to be that.

I don’t can you give me a clue?

I don’t believe in coincidences and think an AI tue up is on the cards.

I’m a bit new to this stock, and I’ve said before that I got in on a hunch based on a social meeting with Halley.

It just struck me that you’d never get a penny out of him unless he was going to get £1 in value in return.

He’s the right guy for a turnaround I think.

GLA

here it is again

in 2021 the company agreed a £25m facility together with an additional “approved but uncommitted” accordion of another £10m

so that’s £35m approved.

subsequently the accounts for the year end march 2024 disclose that the company had agreed a reduction to £17.5m and a change from profit based covenants to cash based covenants.

so they’ve halved the loan originally agreed, and because .mano weren’t making the profits to prop up the original covenants they’ve re drawn it to make it stack up on cash based covenants. basically they’ve juggled it to avoid a breach. they didn’t want to shut it down. if you want to bleed something it’s best to keep it alive while you do it.

since the company doesn’t have much cash to speak of, this must refer to “receivable cash” ie that which is predicted to come in based on settlements agreed to date. it is highly unlikely that hsbc are lending on anything in the current pipeline. this approach is asset based lending, as opposed to lending on a going concern which would be profit based lending.

so now basically they’re looking at how many gold teeth the corpse has got and lending less than the value of those.

and they want out of that^^ which would indicate that their **** is getting squeaky about getting their money back. perhaps the corpse doesn’t have enough gold teeth. heaven forbid!

interesting that they require cooklin to maintain a 5% holding in the business. he can’t just sell his shares and go to margate on a ******, he’s tied in. and that’s so that if things go to crap he can manage it and get the bank paid off by selling off the gold teeth.

the current facility seems to expire on the first of july 2025..

options seem to be:

replace the debt provider (anyone else is going to be more expensive than hsbc)

mahusive cash munny settlements which are so large they don’t need the credit (they haven’t managed anything really impressive so far)

sell moar shares to bag holders… (this might prove tough though to be fair there is one born every minute)

none of the above, sack half the staff and pull back on everything while the bank get amortised down over 24 months or so, the illusion of “growth” goes out of the window and the bag holders get rinsed and it’s 1p on a good day.

good luck!

Yep pulled my post / nothing contentious in it except that it tells it as it is.

I think you need your meds reviewed.

Revolvers have chambers by the way, they revolve. Each chamber holds a bullet, usually 6.

Pistols and semi automatic / automatic weapons have magazines. The bullets in those are pushed up from the bottom one at a time usually by a spring or something.

Well, guns, or revolving credit lines, if you depend on either and it’s suddenly removed you’re in trouble…

If you add that to the fact that banks don’t take risks they know about then you can draw your own conclusions.

Bear in mind that HSBC see absolutely everything, the status of every “settled case” that’s paying monthly, arrears on those and they have a handle on the nPV of the income stream and that will have a certain covenant cover over the interest and they’ll have a target theoretical amortisation period of for instance 18 months.

If the gig looks like it can’t deliver that then you’ll want your revolver back. Similarly if you’ve lent a revolver to a guy that’s due to go to the electric chair, you’ll probably want that revolver back too.

Happy New Year!

There’s one reason and one reason only why HSBC have clipped the revolver and want out.

Me too I bought 20m shares in my SIPP just before Xmas.

There’s gonna be a tie up of some sort. That’s what it looks like.

Very glad I took the leap and jumped in here with a lot of shares.

Could be an interesting new year.

Also interesting that pubx have just shortened their year end to dec31st with shares in GFIN due to be suspended immediately after.

I’m not sure what it signifies but it’s ringing bells with me.

Who are Mos?

Terrible, but on the bright side, if he exercises restraint and holds his nerve, he’ll be able to average down an awful lot lower.

Probably about when HSBC clips the revolver again and they can’t replace it.

Then it’s only up from there. lol.

Happy Xmas & Good Luck!

Fastest way for him to make a lot of money is turn this round.

That’s what I think he’ll do.

We’ll see.

I met this guy Halley at an event that wasn’t related. I didn’t know he was the CEO of this until later but there’s no way that guy is going to let this slip.

My investment in this is purely based on my assessment of him.

David Halley bought a load of stock in this recently and there’s just no way he’d have done that if anything untoward was on the cards.

I don’t see a short suspension as a big deal.

We’ll see what happens.