Hi OxfordBull, Apologies, you may be correct. John Gallemore in the THG Webcast Ingenuity stated they have pipeline for 400 by the end of 2022 which was a cautious number and he thought it would be more likely be above 450, but I guess he could have included 2021 pipeline in that number.
THG Ingenuity Presentation taken from their investor relations pages states as follows:-
"Visibility on Q4 FY22 ARR of £112m assuming 400 live sites at the end of FY22 with consistent recurring revenue per site and recurring revenue of 60%.
? SoftBank option illustration: assuming 60% recurring sales mix from 600 sites live by the end of 2023 (£170,000 revenue/site) and a 4% revenue-share on £2.5bn GMV from Beauty & Nutrition, then Ingenuity Commerce revenues annualise at £270m in FY23 vs £4.5bn option price."
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&dt_select=1641369600&trade_set=122&symbol=LSE%3ATHG
Multiple multiple AT trades 16:08 to 16:30
No major ordinary share sells/purchases. 99.9% bot traded to create the spike so to me it really does feel like an II trying to reduce a short position or a heavy investor buying up stock through a major trader like GS.
Programmed manipulation at 13:29
You don't need much more evidence of manipulation than this. Hundreds of buys set off with small volumes and small increases in price very quickly to trigger sells.
Shorts want your stocks...
"By last Wednesday, the number of short positions had doubled in just 16 days to 4 per cent of the stock, according to data from research firm IHS Markit for The Mail on Sunday."
That would suggest most increased short positions would have been taken following the share price increase off the back of good news, so in a range of 211p to 235p, so I'd expect the shorts to be happy offloading slowly between 200 to 210 range before the Q4 update.
GLA
Yeah, I had a line drawn expecting a pull back to 211 this week. I thought it was possible to drop to 195 ish but didn't expect it. The increased shorts and article in the Mail really did it's job I think.
Another "feel good" good thought for us all, Matt Moulding lost £300m in the last 2 days. He won't be liking that either.
But watch him and his team in interviews. They are laid back and confident in their products, but unlike Holmes/Theranos, he actually has good products in THG Ingenuity, THG Studios, THG Hosting etc which are currently live in the market and is being signed by good brands such as Homebase, Matalan, Honda, Nestle, and many more to come.
GLA
Also, I think we need to remember, good news can come at any time. What's the next "Matalan" sign-up to be announced?
THG have in the pipeline 400 new companies signed up for Ingenuity roll out in 2022, that's like 8 per week!!!
For me, we're too near the middle ground for me to make a move now for sure.
Having on paper gained £65k on the rise and lost £45k in the last 2 days, and now sitting on a £30k loss, I should have been trading this stock with hindsight, but here we are and I like the company so now I plan to just holding until we go up again.
I firmly believe we are on an upward tick for 2022 now, and to me it just looks like based on the volumes the shorts are playing with, there will be continued wild swings ongoing whilst we move upwards towards £4.00 during 2022.
The shorts most likely aren't just selling, they're probably swing trading. I think for PI's, 2022 with THG day traders could be about recognising the new higher highs and higher lows.
GLA
Retail investor's shares getting sucked up whilst Institutional Investors (and some decent day traders - not me) profit on large swings.
With hindsight, I wish I sold at 229p considering my average holding at 220p, but that's hindsight.
Good luck to all PI's making money from these swings.
STE2000 most of the US Tech stocks don't look good today. Probably all bot trading based on industry and risk.
AMD currently -5.82%
Amazon - 1.92%
MSFT -2.10%
Apple -1.39%
When those low risk companies are down this much today I'm not surprised THG are down 10%.
Personally I'm thinking what is the world coming to when THG is down 10% today and IAG is and TUI are up >10% despite being in huge trouble for years to come most likely...
@Deos, Fair enough you did well today. Well done and good luck to you. You can now start buying back at your leisure at a nice discount and lower average price.
You also counted for about 1% of the trades today on your own which is not insignificant so if you start buying back you may help us holders with a price rise! ;-)