Member Info for Mamms

Manyana, I think you might be overly optimistic - don't forget the price of oil was 50% higher back then than it is today. Although the cost of drilling have come down hugely, that will change now that people are starting to spend again. I'd have to say, I have held on despite my worst fears (I worried that APEC had nothing behind them) - ponying up 9m and the 10.5m before drilling puts my mind at rest on this score. I agree, if BROE does what it says on the tin then we could get back to a good valuation - $1bn is possible with a couple of breaks..... which would suggest a bonanza for ToR. It's fantasy really but north of that seems too far ..... if it ever started to look that good it would be taken out log before that.

This looks like an improvement over the original deal. I think it will take time but I expect the management team have a strong focus on August 2019 and getting the sp up to something that makes their share options worthwhile. I'd love to see ToR pocket €6m or €12m given what it would mean for me and everyone else. I hope to see the SP drift north over the next 6 months and react to the flow of drilling news.... It won't be quick, many people will get out (remember it was half this price 12 months ago) and the big fund raise happened at this level so expect a fair amount of resistance. My average is around fifty cents now - the problem is I have an awful lot of them. Here's to hoping.....

That's not Jimmy's name or at least not the Jimmy's name that used to post under 'Jimmy24'. The new guy is Jimmy23.... that iii site is deader than a dodo. Anyway, another week slipping by - what will the sp do if there is no news by 30 Septembre I wonder? What will it do if there is news? Could be Monday morning blues but I reckon sfa if there is news and strong downward pressure if there isn't... sigh....

The line is -'still on track for Q3' but they are just working off promises from two entities (the Chinese and Irish Governments) over which they have zero control. I think the sp will weaken every day from here to an announcement and I won't be expecting a big bounce (ie being late reduces the sp...).

Even the day's trading looks like everyone is just holding their breath....

Sorry in advance, I realise this is trivial but I just see that someone sold 10 shares for £1.07. Can anyone explain that to me? Is that someone trying to send a signal or is it a real trade? If is a real trade, why?

Yeah, sorry about that. Very little traded today and yesterday - I guess everyone is in 'wait and see' mode.... GLAL

There has definitely been a big uptick, those were farmouts that they did last year -just a pity they were dusters. The problem is that those Tullow heads aren't on the executive team so it's just occasional inputs. It's a good point though, there are some grownups in the room now at least. I think it will be signed, but late and there will be some problem too - the final shape of it will be worse for us I think. I believe we will only see value when oil actually starts to flow and that is a world away.....

There has definitely been a big uptick, those were farmouts that they did last year -just a pity they were dusters. The problem is that those Tullow heads aren't on the executive team so it's just occasional inputs.

After a long and bitter experience I am not expecting much from the current management. They are usually late and when an event does finally happen, it is normally disappointing. I pray each day that I will be wrong but when I stand back and look at management's past performance there is not much of a basis for hope.

There is a frightening lack of understanding of options here. Anyway, the point being (a) once a share option is worth more than the strike price (45c here) then they are worth money to the holder and (b) no one actually buys an option (well your broker or agent may execute but there is no need to do so). At 60c, ToR would get 12m*15cents or €1.8m etc. Depending on your tax residence, it could be income tax or capital gains - however, both would apply to the €1.8m or the 15cent difference only. The share will struggle to beat 12c let alone get anywhere near 45c- that is the price most of the shares were bought at so that is a natural resistance point. Given the failure over the last 5 years, it will take real and substantive events to move the dial I think. I expect there will be little reaction to the actual signing of the deal (or deals though i think this unrealistic).. If the drills next year go ahead and the drills are declared commercial by APEC then I'd expect some reaction - unless the Chinese make a bid for the thing compete thing, best case still is well under 45c. So my best case is drilling success leading to a bid for the company.

ToR said he expected the deal to be approved in 'early' Q3 - I have very low expectations, don't get me wrong but normally that would have suggested July? I hope early Q3 isn't code for 'watch this space'...

ToR and JoS have potentially significant share options that expire August 2019. I expect the options will not be extended and in the case of ToR at least, I doubt he will continue much beyond that date since the inducement is to make something happen. This leads me to believe that they will be very keen to also get at least Newgrange drilled before next August. The need an sp north of 45c to be able to exercise the options and I suppose they will be aiming for significantly higher. Can they achieve it? BROE doing what it says on the tin and Newgrange being drilled at the same time ought to really move the needle.... every cent above 45c delivers €120k to ToR and €90k to JoS. I'd be trying pretty hard if it was me....

Just to clarify, the 'hope' is to drill April or May 2019 and not in Q1 2019. The interview in last weeks Irish Times states: "The final deal with the Chinese will be signed in the third quarter, following which O’Reilly hopes to get State consent to drill – “we can’t take it for granted” – by next April or May. The planned appraisal drilling will then take six months." best case is drilling Q2 and results Q4.

All this green stuff is nonsense. It sounds great but is so removed from reality that I don't think it will have an impact. For instance, I see in the Sindo that the Government is moving its UK held strategic oil reserve (200k tonnes of oil) out of the UK as part of its Brexit planning. https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/cabinet-to-move-irish-oil-reserve-from-uk-37119518.html You have to have oil, especially in a pinch. If PVR/APEC can produce oil, they will be welcomed to do so with open arms. I also saw the O'Reilly piece and while my immediate reaction to the 'renewables' thing was FFS, I agree with Battle that most likely, it's just to give him a platform to remind people of some realities.

I've long ago given up trying to understand this share price. I thought the reason it fell is that BROE is less likely to happen, hence the emphasis on Newgrange. But if BROE doesn't happen logp are even more screwed than PVR.

So much good news..... and the sp falls. They need a farmout, they need BROE signed off and they need both drilled before summer 2019...…

I will need some cash later this year. I am not convinced about APEC - in the end I sold about 6.5m shares all told. If APEC is not real then at least PVR will have Newgrange, potentially even next year, but LOGP will have nothing. I still have a few million LOGP and hope I am wrong. BTW, I made money on LOGP but am seriously underwater on PVR (just under 50p).

I just got the last 1.55m away today so that's me done......

There are simply no buyers. I have been trying to sell 3.5m shares since mid June and have only about half away. Hopefully a 'joint-broker' will help.....