Member Info for Mamms

This is not going to help. It also encourages these dingbats to take an action on spec and see what happens. Lie down and play dead is not the best response....

Article in the Irish Times confirming the legal action against the department (not pvr) in today's paper. Load of nonsense, I'd be surprised if the court didn't throw it out at the preliminary hearing in the 11th December....

An Taisce is a charity and gets most of its money from the department of communciations... and environment. So essentially, they are suing the entity that pays their salaries (a Judicial Review just checks the process, not the facts - so if Tony spelt his name wrong, or put in the wrong co-ordinates, that's not a problem. If the Department didn't follow the process set out in the correct sequence, then that's a problem. Sorry, the point is, An Taisce is suing the Department and no one else). I expect it will go away quietly.

If you look back at my posts (incl on iii) I was very skeptical about APEC initially. I do have a little experience of dealing with the Chinese and in that experience I have been shocked at how controlled everything is. The deal would not have been signed off, X number of millions paid over, COSL and JIC on the roster unless it had been okay'ed by the people who matter in that country.

Don't worry about APEC (even if it looks like a bit of a letterbox outfit, there is substance behind).

The management@ email is still not working, the other mbu@ is working - I just wrote to them to tell them of the problem. Bronx, did you put your question to them? Did they reply?

No, but I don't have a reason to contact them. You should try their generic email address for your question mbu@apecenergy.com (and also let them know that the other email address does not work). BTW the message 'because the address couldn't be found, or is unable to receive mail.' implies they have not set up the email account (since they clearly own the relevant domain name).

There's a bit in the Times too (but no mention of anyone in particular). The PWC report seems to be the driver. They report an expected $500m to be spent in the next two years driven by a series of specific wells - which includes BROE. No mention of Newgrange unfortunately..... there's not much in the actual report https://www.pwc.ie/publications/2018/2018-oil-and-gas-survey.pdf

JIC - it's one of China's many development banks, like Caisse des Depots in France.

I had significant concerns myself before the sign off - China doesn't sign-off on anything unless they are fully committed. Note also, the first $9m has already been paid over, finance houses won't pay for a cup of coffee unless everything is signed-off.

Anyway, in other news, it looks to me like LOGP could be in play sooner rather than later. Pre-drill buyout? 5p? 6p? 7p?

Looks like we are in for a rough time. There is a reckoning coming to the broader market. China looks particularly exposed.... However, the world needs Oil and Gas whether it likes it or not. The World is awash with both driven largely by the US. If there is a broad downturn, US shale producers are in big trouble. They can't wash their faces at $60 or $70 a barrel. At some point they'll pull the plug. If BROE does what it says on the tin then there will be no problem.... though we may be waiting longer to get a decent price >£1.....

Sorry to be a cynic but is there anything new in this? 'we think there might be oil, lots of positive indications. We have lots of interest f, we hope to drill next year' surely we knew all that already? Where is the fing farm out?

the pain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree Bronxville that PVR will get caught up in the correction - this may be the start of it or it may be a flash in the pan. However, PVR are well placed to weather the storm with sufficient funding in place to get to 2P and FID without having to go to the market. Imagine if a correction hit 6 months ago......it doesn't bear thinking about

the pain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

It's strange that the Irish media aren't all over this? Why is it the Brits reporting on it?

Yes, your sums are correct (except you say $602m revenues before tax, actually it's $602m profit before tax). Don't forget we have big tax write-offs on the balance sheet we could use. The thing is, if it moves to production and something else comes in (a Newgrange or a Dunquin) who knows where the sp could go.

Someone paid them to write that report - it says so in the disclosures.

I wouldn't mind what they say, it could be to keep the price down or push it up but it is not a neutral perspective (if such a thing can exist).

Seems to me that the Chinese aren't committing $200m or so for the good of their health. If there is the oil, if it is where the refined seismic says it is etc.etc. then BROE is worth a lot and so is PVR (and LOGP). If is what it is supposed to be, then 50p looks very low....

Did I miss it or was there nothing in the Press this weekend? PVR is up more than 50% - I would have thought it would get a few mentions....

There are a couple of big differences though I don't know how important these might be. The $19.5m going to PVR to cover expenses are actually not going to PVR but to EXOLA which means it can only be spent on BROE since that is EXOLA's only interest. EXOLA is managing the drilling campaign. LOGP does not have any say in how it goes and also, no one is ponying in cash to LOGP. This might account for at least some of the difference. I view LOGP as the canary in the coal mine. When it gets taken out then PVR won't be far behind. Look at it another way. say APEC's only interest is BROE- they are paying 12p for the warrants (very cheap btw) which will give them an additional 4% of BROE. Say they pay a pro rata price for another 10% - by my reckoning that would be £18m - i'd be ticked off if LOGP raised cash at less than 3p on that basis (there should be a decent premium on top). Let's say just 50% (where PVR are now). Then LOGP would be raising at 4.5p - let's say they raise £4m that would be 100m and give APEC a chunky stake.... yeah, I think you're right, LOGP seems like it ought to be doing better....

even if you are not an active trader but invested in the 12p raise, you can take a 20% return right now (which given where we were 12 months ago would look pretty good in this year's year-end report). It will be a long road to redemption and there will be big resistance points but I still expect that if BROE delivers then we'll all be in clover....

no, they're not. If you are an active trader you will take your 40% profit earned in the last week - bank it and go again. Nothing moves in a straight line - I think we could hit 25p before year end just as the news settles and the work programme advances - it might go higher on positive news or lower if the ass falls out of the world economy but you pay your money and take your chances. I'd strongly advise not watching the sp day to day (though it is exciting these days)....