Member Info for Mamms

how do you do that on this board?

Lads, could ye all lay off the shite talk for a while - who cares about DT etc. Closer to home the dept just pushed the consultation date out to 6 June after further documentation was submitted.
https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/Application-for-consent-for-a-site-survey-at-Barryroe,-North-Celtic-Sea,-South-West-Coast,-Ireland-proposed-by-Exola-DAC-wh.aspx

In fairness, you made me look but seriously? the bid is 13.5c and the ask is 14.4c. Yes, it is true that a whopping €80 of shares traded at 16c this morning but it was probably some ahole chucking €12.50 away to make a comment.....

Seriously, the world goes up, the world goes down, wars start, wars end but this ****-show just never does bucking anything. FFS. What about Newgrange? How about something to move the focking sp north? ToR and JoS should be shown the door and fock their options.

I'm with Bronx on this, it looks like incompetence. They already made a submission - withdrew it by agreement and therefore should have been in conversation with the Dept about getting it through smoothly on the second iteration. The fact that not one but two additional requests have been made (with outcome unknown) beggars belief.

As an aside, can anyone who periodically says 'the share price makes no sense' please take note and the next time they feel like saying 'the share price makes no sense', remember this and on every previous occasion, the Share Price made perfect sense when more information became available.....

It took 9 working days for CNOOC to make its submission after the EIA request. Today is the 9th working day since there was an EIA request on BROE. I don't expect it will take longer here? Then it only took 4 days for approval (though the consent is still not issued). I'd expect we will at the same stage before mid May.

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/Application-for-consent-for-a-site-survey-at-Barryroe,-North-Celtic-Sea,-South-West-Coast,-Ireland-proposed-by-Exola-DAC-wh.aspx

FFS

I was just looking at the submissions to the DEPT to see what the timings are like for the survey(s) - PVR will do four separate surveys, each with a 16 day estimate and that excludes set ups, port calls, etc. The site survey will take at least 3 months then, once it starts. Let's say the department approve by end of May - then they would be making an application to drill mid to late September - the approval process will take what? 30 days? most of the work ought to have been done. So the conclusion is, at best, and I mean the very best with no delays, I think we could be stating drilling in November!!! Nice weather then through to March/April. FFS - anybody got a more optimistic view?

The Shareholding of ii's is the highest it's ever been - I'm tracking since 2014 when it was 30%, it has been up and down with the raises but right now it's touching 60% and that despite the fact that the Capital Group shed its Irish-listed stocks including PVR two weeks back after shrinking its Ryanair shareholding last yearand scaling back stakes in Smurfit Kappa, Cairn Homes, Tullow Oil, Hostelworld and Glenveagh so it's not personal (as I said, many times there may be a logic to it). Despite all that, despite teh noise, despite everything large shareholders have 60%.....

Manyana, as was demonstrated by Bronxville previously - the law states that anyone you can demonstrate an interest is entitled to take a review. The court won't take something frivolous but it is not a terribly high threshold.
https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/national_government/standards_and_accountability/judicial_review_public_decisions.html

The relevant portion is here:
"If the decision-maker does not have authority or does not give you fair procedure, you may bring judicial review proceedings in the High Court to challenge the decision. You must show that you have "sufficient interest" in the proceedings, that is, that you were affected in some way by the decision you are challenging. You must also show that you have an arguable case, that is, that your case has grounds."

So if there was a problem that was 'real' and I lived in West Cork for instance, then the court would likely give the grounds (I'm potentially affected and prepared to pay for the court case demonstrates that interest).

Anyway, I still say UK crashes out, sterling collapses and markets (aim in particular) takes a big hit....

....and we're wallowing down in the dirt looking up. How does ToR survive? The sp was higher when oil was in the $30 range.... FFS!

Ranger4 - That is a incredibly alarmist perspective. Even if that bill were to be passed (which I doubt) it will certainly be amended to take effect at some future date- BROE will go ahead.

If you forget the general environment and the impact it might have on the SP, then specific to PVR this is really good news but with a sting in the tail. The more drilling we do, the better the prospect of a hit and the better the chance of a major boost to the share price. The sting in the tail is that PVR have cash but not a lot. They are financing the BROE drilling through a soft loan from their partner, APEC. The have maybe €5m to spend on a drill, that's allowing for operating expenses to end 2020 (my rough estimate but not a million miles out I'd expect). Now, again this is a very rough estimate but say Dunquin South costs $50-60m to drill (PVR are not in charge of it but ENI) - they will have to cover $12.5-$15m. To cover those costs, their options are to issue more shares and dilute, farm down some of their share (say move down to 10% but pay nothing for the drill - limits the up and downside) or borrow. Now PVR's experience with borrowing has not been good. Borrowing for exploration is like R&D and borrowing, it's suicidal in my view - anyway those are the options. Caveats to this analysis are (a) PVR may have more cash on board that realised (b) the drill might not be that expensive (c) other activities might be a source of income - if the farmed down Newgrange or something else, that might generate cash.

Hi Cagney, At June 30, 2018, total cash & cash equivalents were €12.355 million (that's from the mid-year report). They had no debt. Operational costs are what? maybe €3 or 4m? So let's say they have €9 on hand - they'll need another €3m for the year ahead so at absolute best they have €6m (and I suspect with experience that at least half of that is gone, has anyone ever seen a report from PVR over the last 10 years and gone 'wow, where did that cash come from' -no). That won't be enough to finance their share of Dunquin or anythign else for that matter... Maybe they can farm down again? but that tends to be woefully slow....

I'm just looking at the board now, thanks Bronxville for saving me the bother of replying.

Sobeit, your reincarnation hasn't improved you.

The department did not follow the correct process - the matter should be resolved with the new submission from PVR. We should probably hear news within the month (I guess it will depend on whether there are many submissions).

What about ENI and Dunquin South, will PVR have the cash to stay at the table?

That's hilarious Sobeit - 'Let's get a few facts straight under Irish law.' followed by something that is not true. JHC - you should tone it down when you don't know what you are saying. It depends on the legislation - some things can only be judicially reviewed and some things can be reviewed on the merits. It has nothing to do with the party taking the action - I could seek a judicial review of the Department's decision - so could you, so could anyone. The quote you have taken from God knows where refers to the fact that judicial reviews are not heard in the local, district or circuit courts but in the High Court. A judicial review only assess whether a body followed the correct process and that it did not act beyond its powers (acting 'ultra vires'). An taisce is partially funded by DCCAE but if they see the process being misused again, they will sue again (an DCCAE won't pull their funding because this isn't Africa).....

That said, I assume that whatever lessons had to be learnt, have been learnt and that BROE is continues on its current schedule.

Today's price dip is probably a function of ENI's submission on Dunquin south and the fact that they are bulling ahead meaning PVR will have to either raise or get a further farm out in 100th of the time spent on other farm outs.......

Sir N, I completely agree with your summary. I think where I'd diverge is on where PVR are at - I think PVR were the first to get a slap on the nose for not making an appropriate submission and that they have now resubmitted - if it gets knocked back again then it will be either incompetence or something much more worrying - a regime that is working against the industry.....

Another withdrawal. It was submitted last Tuesday and withdrawn on Thursday? FFS does no one do a check on these things before they are submitted? Are the dept being hard asses? WTF?

Fernan, yes the Chinese will go ahead because BROE will go ahead and iolar and them all. I don't see the legislation getting drafted into law and if it does, it will be seriously amended so as to have very limited impact. Yes it is concerning but it is very low probability. Don't get me wrong, ii's are morons like the rest of us but today's sales have been mon and pops. If you stand back a bit and look at the overall share of PVR held by ii's, it's been rising and rising. It's about 60% now which is its highest ever. No, I expect this will get to a conclusion (there are still a million things that can go wrong) but this won't be the one to sink them....

Just to be clear since there is quite a lot of bs thrown out on this board as facts with no substance. The bill that is being moved also covers extraction of oil under existing licences so if it is adopted PVR is bust and LoGP and every other operator in oil and gas exploration and extraction not currently holding a licence, undertaking or lease is gone from Ireland . Of course there will be questions around liabilities etc. what of all the investments already made etc. but that is actually the scope of the Climate Emergency Measures Bill. The bill https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/bill/2018/9/eng/initiated/b0918d.pdf also prohibits the granting of a lease, which you must have to extract oil under the primary legislation http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1960/act/7/section/6/enacted/en/html#partii-chapiii if that bill passes then those advocating boot filling should probably wait until it hits 1p or less.....