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46,807 cases reported today. Looks like they are rising steeply again.
Looking forward to a steady rise from here in anticipation of the DHSC dispute resolution. Rerating to £5 imminent once confirmed by the company. Should be communicated to the market before the end of the year.
This has been rising for 3 days in a row. I can't remember the last time that happened without some sort of news. Somebody somewhere knows that something has materially changed in regards to the DHSC dispute and is loading up.
" payment for these tests is still outstanding at this time, but the Group has held positive recent discussions with DHSC regarding collection of the amount due".
This should bode well for us!
Yup, same here. My NCYT losses exceed the sum of the losses of all my other holdings. Big 5 figure loss. Still adding to it like a numpty though. The fundamentals are here, but sure feels like something fishy is going on with the share price. I have never experienced a share price that so consistently goes down every day. Who would be selling at these prices?! I just don't get it. I really hope I am not making a mistake by sticking with it.
Obviously most people would be happy with a 6£ takeover offer. However, I do not see how this explains the selling pressure. If anything, rumours of the takeover should be supportive of the SP and drive it up. Instead, someone seems to be constantly selling?
I am really confused and upset by the constant drift down in the SP. I don't understand why it would keep moving down, other than that someone must be selling? I mean, there is constant selling pressure, I just don't understand why? We are at a low and most people must be sitting on losses, so who is selling? WQ is reducing their short by buying back shares at the moment, so does that mean that the drift down will become worse once they have closed their shorts? I have been buying, but it feels like fighting against the current.
Well, probably closer to £14M, seeing as their revenue was £7M in the preceding months, not £10M. However, that would indeed be good, as long as it can be sustained.
Thanks for your replies. I was under the impression that once the provision is actually realised that the cost of replacing the product would have to come out of the cash. If that is not the case (would be happy to hear an explanation if that's possible), then we can amend the second calculation to an estimated Mcap of 401M, which translates to a share price of 569p.
We have seen a lot of messages recently from people posting crazy things like the share price going down to 150p while others think this could go to 5400p. I think it is important to keep things realistic. At a share price of 325p, the company is currently valued at 230M. We know from the annual report that we had 92M cash at year end and expect 100M in sales this year from non-DHSC income. We are owed 73M from the DHSC for services already provided. Finally, from the dispute we are likely to have to pay 20M for replacement or 129M for a full refund.
So, assuming the worst case scenario (ie. have to pay back the 129M), we can offset unpaid invoices against this, leaving us with 36M in cash and an estimated 100M in non-DHSC revenue. With an 40% profit margin, we are therefore worst case trading at 5 times estimated profit (230M market cap - 36M cash = 194M / 40M profit). This seems fair value to me assuming the worst case scenario plays out. This is likely why we are trading at our current valuation.
Now assuming the best case scenario plays out (we replace product for 20M), we will be left with 72M in cash and 100M in non-DHSC revenue and 73M in DHSC unpaid invoices (which should get paid then). So, again assume 40% profit margin for 100M + 49M(which is the DHSC revenue relating to this financial year), we have 60M profit. Assuming a multiple of 5, we can expect a fair value of 72M (cash) + 9M (2020 unpaid invoices * 0.4) + (60M * 5) = 381M fair value. This translates to a share price of 540p.
So, in my view the share price should be between 325p and 540p depending on one's view of the dispute. The market is currently pricing in the worst case scenario. This should be a speculative buy in my opinion. For full disclosure, I hold 35000 shares at an average of 380p.
@B2HS2L
Thanks for the links. As per your second linked one, the Public Procurement Review Service does not get involved in matters when "it concerns procurement of health care services for the purposes of the NHS". I wonder whether this would apply to NCYT.
Just saw the below interview.. Sounds optimistic:
https://www.strategy-business.com/article/How-Sage-Group-is-supporting-resilience-in-small-and-medium-sized-businesses?gko=6bcce
Also added another 5k at 4p
As we are heading towards the 10£ mark, I am guessing that people will start taking their profits which will make the price drop again
This is so overvalued at the moment, a 500M business that doesn't make any profit, crazy! Can't wait for this to go backto sub -7£ values.