RE: Interesting graph for Major Oak29 Nov 2021 00:13
Hi vis, good post. Nice and clear and I would recomend to anyone looking to buy.
My gut feeling is 2024 will see the uptake of lithium shortfall. Most new supply will not happen until 2025-26.
Brines are the most nimble so may be able to start initial productions early but will have to build scale to contract and have virtually no delays ie Tesla will need supply on day @#£ and will get it or you get fined per day of down time.
Plant supply for rock miners, global trade , covid , oil and gas prices , transport systems will all need to be at full capacity to ship the product to where it is needed. This I would imagine would have some slipage as nothing really gets built without an issue or two.
US/Canadian brines have great support , locations and demand will be from 2023 not 2025 as they are so far behind.
CUSN/ CL may be nimble enough to cut 6-12 months off but 2025 looks about right. I would not bet against some lithium supply from an initial base say 5,000-8,000tpa as a first year production if they can start up 6-12 months ahead of time and then build in to the 20,000+ tonnage per year.
Tailings will also play a very big part in assisting this development.
All to play for and after some basic looking around , I would be amazed if TechMet do not have a partner or plan for the brine ops inc a big chunk of funding.
Not so good for us BUT we get to production and secure supply well ahead of production thus bringing in the big money capex funding.
We gain via holding our current shares, yes diluted but first mover advantage or as near to in Europe !
Not a bad thing.