Scenario's18 Nov 2025 10:31
Bull:
Farm Down proceeds cleanly with strong valuation, Conrad agrees sale price valuation US300 - 350m, Farm In Partner provides funding, EME settles cash call as part of negotiations package, no loss of equity = EME 8.5% estimate US25 - 29.7 Mil less cash settlement 0.8US net asset value 24-28 Mil US many multiples current Market Cap
Base:
Farm down agrees US150-200m valuation, EME cash call dispute is settled without terms, EME remains in the project but must pay share of future costs, potential as above estimate US12.7 - 17milUS Significant upside from current Market Cap
Bear:
Arbitration does not go in EME's favour, instead forced out at ZERO, EME negotiates a reduced tag - along sale, PSC valued US100 - US150 mil but EME must accept 40-50% cut.
US value 3.4 - 6 Mil still above current Market Cap but gap narrows
Worst Case:
EME Loses arbitration and is chucked out without compensation = Go to jail do not collect 200 on route!