Member Info for Magoo79

It's either lights out for the company or a massive dilution for existing shareholders. It reminds me what happened years ago with GKP, when creditors took 98% or 99% of the company, leaving just crumbs to long term holders. I'd love to be wrong but it's probably good to have low expectations

@Rotherby1 the chances of success are impossible to determine and there is not much point even in attempting. We know the case is solid as third party funding was provided after extensive DD was conducted by experts in this area. Whether it's a 50%, 30% or 80% it does not matter at this stage.

What is clear is that we are now trading at around 4% of the claim and that ahead of the ruling the SP of companies in similar situations tend to move towards 20-30% of that. Even 10% would mean at least doubling today's SP. You can easily buy now and sell a few days/weeks before the end of the arbitration without risking much. The only surprise could be if the parties agree on a settlement, which would still be for an amount much higher than the $50M of today. The assets in africa are a rounding figure in the scheme of things and Mark is probably trying to offload them. Finally, the claim will be updated around July and the amount is likely to be significantly higher. This temporary drop is a great buying opportunity IMHO

HL is down so i am not able to apply..

Agree but I would have preferred a raise when we were around 3p and maybe a larger amount (£2M?) accompanied by a statement saying that the company is fully funded until xx/xx/202x.

Anyway, hopefully 2p is the new floor

Now we know why this has dropped.

I am not impressed, to be polite

As expected we are moving away from the low 240s. Still a great entry price now

As I said yesterday, today we are moving up. Good to see but it's just the start

Expect some movement tomorrow as investors chronicle hits the shelves and we are bouncing up from support.

The article is for subscribers only but here is a relevant paragraph:

the outlook is fundamentally strong, with L&G on course to hit 2028 growth targets. Guidance for this year is for core operating earnings per share growth at the top end of management’s 6-9 per cent target range. BUY

Support around 238-239. Great for a swing trade (275p target) but also for long term holding, given the good dividend and profitability

I am very happy with today's news but the significant rise earlier this week is really dodgy

@threeputt this is just ridiculous. The fact that they haven't paid yet is probably because they were waiting to hear about ICC2 and Zen did not force their hand. With the likely annulment of ICC2 it's clear that ZEN has a strong case and would probably win after filing a new arbitration. Tunisia will have to pay in a way or another and there is plenty of examples of reluctant states forced to pay after their assets have been seized by third countries. 170 countries recognise ICC.

Alternatively, ZEN can sell the claim to a specialised firm and cash in right away

JB taking the p*** as usual

Looks like the sells have dried up. A bounce over the next couple of weeks is now very likely.

Resistance around 620p, see you then

This share lost 35% value in a few days which is absolutely ridiculous if you look at the 2025 results, the current pipeline and projected earnings. Yes, there is the execution risk, there are questions regarding future public funded projects and there is the unpleasant surpise regarding the CEO/Chairman departure. However, this is still an incredibly solid business with good profitability. A short term bounce and long term rerating from these levels are very likely. One to buy and hold

Yes, East Star. Incredibly undervalued junior copper with 2 JVs with major players

I haven;t yet watched the presentation, only the Q&As but i didnt add anything i learned yesterday in my previous comments. It's all well known stuff

Yesterday i missed most of Mark's presentation so I won't comment on that, i'll catch up when they upload the video.

In the meantime it is worth reminding folks that there are several catalists we can expect over the next few months:

- india's response is due, unless they asked for an extension. The fact that no RNS was issued means that they probably didn't ask for one (I would not leave that to the last minute if I were in their shoes)

- PAT needs then to respond by July and an updated claim is almost certainly going to ask for a higher amount to take into account of the PoG increase since they filed the SoC

- PAT are likely trying to monetise the west african assets. This would strenghten the balance sheet and silence all those who periodically insinuate that a placing is on the way. I believe we are fully funded until the end of the dispute but some extra cash is always welcome

- an out of court settlement could be proposed at any time. Whatever the amount, if PAT accepts, is likely to be a multiple of today's market cap.

Is there any downside? no. The only real risk is an adverse outcome but that won't come before Q1-Q2 next year. Until then we can only expect a rerate of the SP to a higher % of the claim. We currently sit at only 5% of $1.5bn. I may derisk ahead of the ruling but certainly not selling a single share until the end of this year

The event starts at 10 AM today and our own Mark Bolton is presenting at 11:45. I'll try to attend and post some comments here. There are over 300 attendees, with many HNWI so, who knows, we may see some chunky buys between now and the end of the week..

Someone will offer a few pennies per million shares and current holders will have to accept to avoid losing everything.

I hope those who kicked me out of the telegram chat because i dared to criticise Robbie are losing much more than me..

No risk of dilution for the next 2 years, according to what Alex said during the presentation.

MASSIVELY undervalued