Member Info for MadMat

"Quick look at the charts for several years back shows sp rises into May."

The trend is your friend...

"I'm surprised by the rise, in conjunction with the shorts increasing."

... as someone else touched on... a common strategy amount the pros is to use shorts to hedge against their long position.. so increasing shorts could be an indication of also increasing longs... fact is we just don't know.

As far as I'm aware, there is no evidence that shorting pushes sp down... if anyone finds some then please post it.

Trying to guess the day to day fluctuations is near impossible... I'm here for at lest another year I recon,,, and I expect to be selling at around 40

It sends a very strong positive signal to the market to see the directors on a buying spree

Do you assert that marshal can control the SP?

Is there any evidence that shorting reduces SP any more that not buying shares does?

Full year results will smash it out of the park

I cant see the technology getting improved to the point where it wont need power.

Is there any evidence to show that shorting a share makes a price drop, anymore than not buying a share makes the price drop?

So last year EZY posted a profit of 324M, and today their mar-cap is about £4B

this year WIZZ is expected to post a profit of 400M, and today the mar-cap is about £2B

hummmm.... I know this is simplistic but it does make you think there's scope for a significant rise here

I've been looking at the passenger numbers published on the Wizz website, and viewing them over a number of years. You can see the chart I made here.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/q3p3ur0yp7k4wjhdiakkb/wizz.jpg?rlkey=gbtq2nqrqbbe79n2iarkyyy8c&dl=0

The numbers are amazing...

- 2023 June, July, Aug passenger numbers 80% up on pre-pandemic numbers

- 2024 Feb Jan, same... around 80-90% up on 2020/2019, and a health 10% up on last year

I cant help feeling very positive about this years performance.

Just for comparison.

IAG and WIzz both have shorts at about 1.3%

both are shorted by Marshall Walis

IAG up 2%

Wizz down 2%

Conclusion = Marshall have nothing to do with it

When they hit their c400m profit expectation SP will rocket.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/11/23/profits-down-at-speedy-hire-as-low-volumes-persist/

ok, this article is from Nov last year but it says,

"Broker Peel Hunt maintained its full-year Ebitda forecast of almost £110mn following the release of Speedy’s interims, although it did reduce its pre-tax profit expectations to £30.5mn from £33.5mn. "

10% lower would be about £27mn, which is still about 20 times better than last year as I understand it.

Any guesses about what's holding the SP back?

IAG doing well on no news, would normally see rises on other airlines. But not Wizz apparently.

Concerns over reaching expectations on the full year results perhaps...,. due in 2 weeks. Then what?

Looking extremely cheep.... and I'm considering averaging down.

I suspect the reaction to the profit warning was a huge over reaction,

However, does anyone know what the expected profit was and what the new expectation is?

Without knowing these two thinks how can anyone assess is the reaction to the profit warning was reasonable or not.

This is massive, a step change in technology that you see every 20 years or so

Https://www.globalservices.bt.com/en/solutions/solution/global-fabric

That's probably why they have 6 wheels each side, 5 spares, just in case

The operative word being "new".

So if I understand, your view is that contract renewals have been misrepresented as new contracts, and therefore don't offer the stated growth opportunities.

Basically you think they're lying , is that correct?

I think you should read the RNS...

Sure ! Its not good to get a profit warning... although its the responsible thing to do,

However, considering we dont know how much lower then expectation it will be I feel the market has over reacted.

Considering this in the RNS

"we secured over £40m of annualised revenue from new multi-year contracts. These contracts represent attractive growth opportunities but have taken longer to mobilise, due to contract specific delays. Therefore, new contract revenues will have only marginal benefit in FY24 with the full effect coming in FY25."

I'm expecting to see the sp doubling in the next 12 months...