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It's a very good question! I put in a sell order of 100k, my last remaining of 250k, on Friday @ £1.37, not expecting to be executed. However, they were all gobbled up in various sales (shown as buys), so does raise the question, who and why? And was my full exit premature?? Guess time will tell...

Oops - hadn't finished before my clumsy finger sent that last one...

Hayashi - I have sold in chunks since the announcement, but was holding a big slice for a counter offer. Doesn't seem to be coming and I have put in a sell order for the remainder today - @ £1.37 so unlikely to be executed, but it looks like anything above the offer price now will be a bonus...

I certainly concur that we appear to have been significantly short changed on the price. I have been here through SKP 18 odd years and build a quite significant holding. I can't help but feel only this years added value is in the offer price, but certainly not beyond and echo BB and John's thoughts on this...

Hayashi -

Definitely with you on this BB - we have certainly been screwed on the price in my view.

Thanks for your thoughts Alex, which make sense.

As a long term holder here (through SKP), the offer is pretty poor and as Dave has rightly pointed out, seriously undervalues the business, as the divi was a done deal anyway. The Board had indicated regular dividends would be paid too, and painted a glowing picture of future strong growth, which had been building for some time - I have no doubt that the £1.36 would have been the base price pretty soon. If Bidco were shorting to suppress the price, highly plausible, then we have been taken even more for a ride......

It's curious that the price is still 4p above the offer price, and has remained consistently above since the (pretty poor) offer was made 2 weeks ago. Can't still be mopping up shorts surely? So would suggest the market still expects a counter offer? Or is there another explanation?

Anyone got any thoughts?

Hi Lee - yes, that sounds very plausible, though we have 400g carry over from Q1, so I'm a bit more bullish for Q2, with a tail down in production, Q3 being the nadir, and then lift up in Q4 with strong outlook. Regardless, as you say, same end result so hopefully just as rosy an outlook.

I suspect it is possible we may hit some lows in Q3, purses ready as Roy would say. Buying opportunities sub 2p will be likely, but short lived, and definitely worth it where funds allow..... in my view....

It's great to see the decent lift in price recently and I have finally seen a theoretical profit on my now very significant holding, first time, having been a holder since 2007, and initial buy in at 38p, though now a bit over 2p. That's a lovely feeling

That said, I think we will see some continued low price volatility for at least the next 6 months. I believe the core driver of the price drop in April was the negative outlook in Q1 numbers - the price dropped immediately after the release to c1.5p and remained there until the PoG increased significantly a few weeks ago.

Whilst Q1 was pretty good, we have the next 3 quarters reducing from that, along with increasing all in costs - all stated in Q1 results. This will have sent the day traders flying - and possibly out for much of this year, unless there is a dramatic change in PoG.

My predictions for the rest of the year - taking the stated expectations of the Board - are:
Q2 - 17.2k
Q3 - 16.2k
Q4 - 16.3k
This will give 68k total for the year, toward the top end of Board projections (64-69k). All in costs will increase, on average, by $130 per oz for the remainder of the year to hit the forecast annual costs of $1275, from $1175 in Q1. Revenue subject to pricing of course, but gold needs to be >$2k second half to hit last years sales number. Debt will still be <$100m by year end.

That said, I think we will get some excellent news toward the end of this year as phase 3 gets into gear, and remain extremely bullish for the medium long term. I believe, like all of us LTH, my future fortune is here...... just might not be in 2021!

Forecasting 3p at year end, 5p end 2022, and heading for 10p and north 2023 when debt cleared, new resources confirmed and dividends paying for the shares...

I think we have been badly let down by the Board here. I too have held for many years, back to early Skye days and the price agreed shows clear complacency. As has already been mentioned on this board, a complete lack of ambition has lead the way. The funds received from GSK were never really fully counted in as not confirmed until after the year end results. Why this was not used to acquire strong expansion opportunities, or even to just get approval for Flutiform for the USA, the original big prize, abandoned through lack of funds in the early years, which would have delivered future growth for us.

Bidco declared that they can invest in growth for VEC in the initial statement. VEC are cash rich and can't find stuff to spent it on, yet private equity see merit in expansion (so do I frankly!) - why haven't the Board had their foot on the gas here? PotentForce has made some very good points relating to this.

Anyway, I'm hoping for a counter offer, as the market seems to expect given the price has maintained a margin over the offer price from day one (though agree, in part covering shorts), but have sold out 30% of my significant holding. I would like to have seen 3 to 5 years further growth, but the Board were not capable of that vision, sadly.

I have been quietly, but quite aggressively topping up since February, in buys of either 1m, 500k, and today 675k. All have shown as sells and all have been offered at fixed prices below mid, suggesting plenty to clear as has already been mentioned here. However, it is a little unsettling to be dumping such a large quantity when the quarterly update is just around the corner and we would hope for something good and a bounce. Fire sale, or someone knows something we won't like!

I've been invested since 2007 and honestly not expecting a great first quarter, though would be nice. I'm anticipating some negative in with the positive, but overall, satisfactory progress, likely a small step back from Q4 2020. Hopefully we'll know in the next two weeks.

Hi Lee - yes, over £200k and yes, a few nervous moments over the years. Fortunately, a clearer road ahead now (in part, thanks to Les) and a bit of a wait longer, but hopefully good times ahead for us all.

And very happy birthday Roy! Have enjoyed your spirit along the way!

I can't claim the £70k 4m, but I have topped up 3m over the last 10 days. Not quite at Roy's number yet, but not too far off, though substantially off his average price, sadly.

I have been here since the heady days of 2007, with an initial buy in of 38p. Have averaged down to 2.5p since, so still a way to go for me, but I have always remained very confident on this long term (with my original horizon 5 years!) and remain so. I have a massive slab invested here - not expecting the good times to roll for a few years yet, but I am expecting them.....

Very best to all my fellow LTH, and us all from here

Hi Roy - I believe the results reference is the quarterly update of 15th January, which were generally very good. It can be seen in the RNS tab here if you missed it. Hopefully onwards and upwards from here, though steady as she goes....

I, too, was slightly comforted by the RNS. Fingers crossed for better news going forward.

Only thing to keep in mind - I understand there is a limited period for which a share can be suspended, after which it is automatically de-listed. Can't remember if it's one month or three, but it is conceivable we could end off AIM by default? Happy to be corrected on this though?

Certainly not good news. Our major shareholder is really turning the screws, has the upper hand and is holding us all to ransom. Perfect way to get the whole business in a fire sale.…. Something is very wrong here.....!!

4.5m here

Oops, that should be 22k quarterly, not monthly!

Hi Volmer - I suspect 20k is a little optimistic (though will happily take it!). As MRLOLOL mentioned below, it was already stated in the last update that there would be downtime in Q4 too. I'm going for similar to Q3 (c18.5k/18.8k) and similar revenue too - the gold price dipped toward the end of the year so will average around Q3 level I suspect. I think costs will be similar too, but with a clear downward indications for Q1 and on with some of the developments of late.

Previously, DB has said he believes 85% recovery original business case is possible with some capex - hopefully this has now been made given the available cash from the last 2 quarters and we'll be heading for circa 22k monthly going forward.

Like many on this board, I have been here a long time, with my first buy at 38p in 2007 (since averaged down to 3.1p). It's been a long and rocky road since. However, if we can get refinancing announced with the Q4 results this month, might just start to get a return and a rosy picture ahead.

My minimum sell price is 9p and I'm hoping for 15p once debt paid off and new reserves confirmed in the unexplored 85% parcel of land we also own. Given the number of shares, much more than that might be optimistic - unless we really are sitting on a gold mine!!

Yes John, it did look that way for a while! I was bullish in Skyeharma all those years ago too, and still remain confident there is significant potential for Vectura…. just for the patient! Hopefully the new CEO will build a step change in performance once he has his feet firmly under the table, and the rewards will follow...

Looks like we have a wait for the GSK award - potentially until Q1 2021, assuming the award is upheld, given GSK's appeal.

Regardless, looks like a reasonable year in 2019, and potentially nice growth in 2020, albeit with increased cash cost as the business refocuses with the new CEO. Having been here for 16 years and still waiting for full value, I guess a few more years won't hurt...… good luck to us all!