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We might just get a nice surprise soon. Given there was 2.2k oz unsold from Q2 & 3, where the costs of production but not revenue would have been counted - and a month into a quarter expected to pump out near to 20k oz, it's very possible the senior debt could be cleared imminently. Hopefully that will kick the price back up to something a bit more interesting.... Fingers crossed.

Yes - not too clear. Looks like we get an extra share for each one that we have, which is then cancelled, along with the original share that we had, and then we get the same number of new shares with a lower nominal value. So basically the same, but different....??

Yes Lee, but that doesn't explain the $7.3m interest in Q1 this year!

It's equal to around 29% on the full outstanding amount of $98.9m at 31st December 2021, excluding any benefit from the $12m paid down in the quarter. By my calculations, interest should have been around $3.3m in the quarter across the senior at 7% and mezzanine at 15% - so around $4m difference somewhere......

Yes, not bad, not great. But definitely good to get the senior debt down to $12.9m, and will make a massive difference when this is cleared in 2 or 3 quarters.

Not sure the debt numbers fully add up though? In the last call, Darren confirmed that the Mezz interest costs (of around $3m a quarter) are capitalised on the senior debt. That would explain why it was coming down so slowly with the strong repayments. However, this quarter, $12m cleared from the senior debt reduced it by a full $11.7 (which would be after the interest at 7% on the SD outstanding).

But, net debt reduced by only $4.7m, suggesting interest in the quarter of $7.3m, or $7m on the mezzanine debt. Even if my first point was not correct, that would imply 81.3m outstanding mezzanine debt with something like 35% interest pa???
I'm not an accountant - and I am sure there is a logical explanation which I am keen to understand - but to me at the moment, it doesn't look like the 15% it is supposed to be?

Regardless, I like you Lee, remain very bullish on this with a substantial amount of money invested here, and confident of a banner year as it progresses.

Good luck to all us LTH

I've added a further 750k since, and built on my previously very substantial holding, though that's me done now. I remain extremely bullish on MTL, but CV, I really feel your pain too - we've both been here a very long time, and certainly much longer than I ever intended.

I'm expecting a minor lift when we get the Q1 update, a slightly bigger one after Q2, and mini boom once we have cleared the Wonga loan end Q3 / early Q4.....

I added another 1.25m today. Definitely a real opportunity at these prices!

We certainly have a lot to look forward to!

I'm a bit more optimistic for senior debt, with expectation it will be cleared in H1, assuming PoG remains stable. I am slightly cautious for Q4 results (around 16k I suspect), but anticipating nearer 90k for 2022 with the higher grade and efficiency improvements now in place.

I'm very happy with my quite substantial holding and extremely optimistic for what lies ahead. Wishing us all a very happy and prosperous year ahead....

Yes - all starting to come together. Whilst the debt level is still high, it is coming down very nicely.

On the basis that half year senior debt was $42.4m, and the terms of the agreement is that payments will be made within 5 days of the Q end, $7.3m was cleared in Q3, from Q2 free cash, so the balance was $35.1m (slightly different to yours Carefree, but happy to be wrong!).

Post Q3, around $10m should have been repaid from Q3 free cash, bring the total now down to around $25m.

Assuming a similar result from Q4, the January payment will bring it down to around $15m. On that basis, and again assuming similar results Q1&2 (excluding higher grade impact), the Senior debt can very possibly be cleared in H1 2022.

As Lee says, the impact of reduced interest on the New Mezzanine Facility once the Senior is cleared will be material and timing of debt clearance should accelerate nicely, now looking within 2024. Of course, all this is subject to the PoG, but I am now even more bullish on MTL and happy with my substantial holding.

Yes - really nice surprise. Way more than I was anticipating, with a more encouraging outlook than the past Q too - should see some nice movement upwards today....

A pleasant surprise for Q3 with 19.4k oz gold produced, with meaningful increase in recovery to 84%+. Encouraging progress on phase 3&4 access, though not full yet, with benefit of production from Q1. Looks like it should be a good Monday..... onwards and upwards.....

Yes Lee, 25m, 1.2% of shares in issue. Either very brave, or somewhat reckless - either way, it makes the coming months and years very interesting!

I have more than doubled my shares since the Q2 results drop as, whilst this could bounce around this bottom for a while, I think (hope) it's only months, possibly weeks or days, before we see some meaningful recovery. As long as the PoG remains steady, and access to phase 3 is not delayed significantly, all the ingredients are in place for this to fly - not guaranteed of course, but highly likely.

Hopefully a meaningful update for Q3 in the next few weeks - we know production will be somewhat lower than Q2, and Q4 lower again, but soon as there is clearer news for phase 3 access, this should be looking very good.

Definitely a good question Roy.

I am still amazed that this is so low and the potential upside as we (LTH) know is incredible. I suspect that as soon as there is confirmation that the illegal miners are fully evicted and so some certainty that numbers will improve, this will shoot back up again, at least back up to 2p - that's £28k. However, that could be anytime from tomorrow to Christmas day or beyond..... I believe the poor production numbers for Q3 & 4 are already priced in, recovery is not.

For what it's worth, I see this period as an incredible buying time, not selling, but you're right, there's plenty more going on that might be quicker. I now have 25M after some big recent buys and am not going anywhere yet......

The half year results are due this month, and then Q3 mid to late October.

The first half was good. However, confirmation that access to phase 3&4 had been further delayed pounded the price . With the expected confirmation that illegal miners have now been removed, we should see a nice price correction.

Second half won't be good, but that's already priced in, so good forward looking production from Q1 2022 onwards will just see this bound steadily upwards from here. Good times not far away now.... good luck all, especially us long term holders here....

Definitely a real buying opportunity. I have been adding to my now substantial holding, and happy to sit and wait. I'm anticipating that the half year results will bring some clarity on phase 3&4 timings now the illegals are gone, and with it comfort and some price recovery.
I'm pretty confident the delays and low Q3/4 gold recovery are built into the price, so hopefully soon back to 2p, and beyond as the debt steadily clears through the next couple of years.
I'm anticipating 15k oz gold Q3, 14k in Q4, but solid growth in volumes and revenue / free cash from Q1.
I've been here 14 years now, through thick and thin...... only one way now - up!

You offloading some Roy??

This is excellent news and paved the way for a proper price correction, I suspect with the half year results September. The only reason the price took a pounding from the Q2 update was the further delay to phase 3 & 4 ore without indication of when clear access would be possible. Whilst the rest of the year won't be great for volumes, the reality of a strong rebound in Q1 should send things moving nicely upward again. If gold retains and builds on today's price back to £1800+, even better.....

Well done Jim! There is no doubt in my mind this is heading back up again very shortly, most likely when we get the half year results in September, and steadily onwards from there. Good to see gold also drifting up, and that may well speed up the lift.

The further delay in phase 3 & 4 ore spooked the day traders and the price dropped more than any of us could have anticipated, though I was expecting a drop and planned to buy more on that. I did - and considerably more than I previously planned given the size of opportunity. I now have a very substantial holding, though having been here since 2007 and at an initial price of 38p, my average is about double yours.

I'm still anticipating 3p after the Q4 results, 6p end 2022 and 10p mid-end 2023. I, like you, remain very confident on the mid-term future here and my best to all us long term holders.

A disappointing, but not surprising update today. Whilst the news confirms further delay in access to the higher grade ore in phase 3 & 4 until next year, it is not a disaster and the drop today probably a bit overdone, though gold output this year looks more likely at the bottom end of the indicated range now, and therefore the risk of little movement in the net debt position for the rest of the year (hopefully enough to cover interest though), outlook remains bright for the brave. I remain very bullish for the medium - long term and have topped up my substantial holding very significantly today. Fortunately, I can sit on it for a while longer and remain confident for 10p by end of 2023, gold price dependant, just a few extra rocks to pass in the road again now........ All best to my fellow long term holders

I know for us long term holders, the 2p resistance has been very comforting. However, as I mentioned before, I think we're in for a dip before the big rise. I suspect we'll get around 17k in Q2, so likely north of $30m sales with the extra ozs from Q1. However, outlook for Q3 will be pretty poor, with only the dregs to process, and no immediate access to phase 3 stocks, likely until Q4 - so the remaining day traders are going to jump again. I'm anticipating around 15k in Q3, before hitting 17k again in Q4, and strong immediate outlook from there. With that, I suspect we may hit the 1.75p mark again in the next few weeks / month, before settling back at 2p and then nicely up toward the year end. 3p January (after Q4 results) and 6p by end next year. Not expecting anything solid from the NEDs until later in the year either. So...mid-2023, our magic 10p..... unless additional proven reserves confirmed mid-late next year, pop the corks early! But only time will tell.....

Really good to see this new offer and far fairer value for shareholders - I was very uncomfortable with Private Equity just value engineering and making a huge return in a few years. Assuming it proceeds, PMI will invest to grow and develop real value..... and Lasvelas, yes, see who dips in next and where this goes. Just ****ed I already sold out..... but best to all who remain