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KAP’s share price relative to other large uranium producers might now improve, if Kazakhstan can continue to show that it will remain distanced from Russia’s war.
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/kazakhstan-pivots-from-russia-amid-ukraine-war/

I’m watching to see whether the Kazakh government can continue to resist openly supporting Russia’s aggressions. My strong suspicion is that it’ll fold. In which case KAP share price is heading for another big drop, as it then faces the very real prospect of global sanctions.

https://euobserver.com/ukraine
13. MAY, 15:19
Valdimir Putin's equivalent to Nato — the Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — is convening in Moscow next week to give cover that Russia is not alone in its war against Ukraine.

For now, Kazakhstan is managing to walk the line of neutrality. But my sense is that if the Kremlin decide they want the Kazakh government to come down off the fence and clearly demonstrate their loyalty, Kazakh won’t fight it, they will cave. And I f that happens, the West will put Kazakhstan in the same bucket as Belarus, meaning heavy duty sanctions. The Kazakh government know this of course, but they also know that there’s no way that the West will come Kazakh’s aid if they decide to make a stand and resist Russia. Plus the Kazakh economy is tightly tied to Russia’s, so the government may reason that extra sanctions pointed at them won’t make much difference. So in the round kowtowing to the great beast on their northern border may be viewed as the lesser of two evils.
If Kazakh do indeed succumb, and voice their unequivocal support for Russia…. Kazatomprom’s share price will end up in the toilet.

I think there’s another dimension to this, apart from reliance on Russian banks. The Kazakh government have been careful not to condone the invasion but will this be enough? Moscow have huge leverage over Kazakhstan and I can foresee Russian interference ramping up that will require them to demonstrate nothing less than absolute loyalty. Once the Kazakh government announce their full throated support for Russia, as they inevitably will have to - what then for Kazatomprom…?
I think the writing is on the wall.

If that’s true, then all bets are off……

KAP almost exclusively sells uranium on long term contracts. And KAP was seen as well placed to provide stability of production that buyers needed to facilitate this. But how many new buyers will be willing to select Kazatomprom for a long term contract now??

I’ve just sold my entire holdings in KAP. Was more than 10% of my portfolio because I did have v high conviction. But I now think this is going to get way worse before it gets better. Kazakhstan electricity is down, internet is down, workers can’t go to work, the government has stepped down after god know how many years in uncontested power. Jeez, when the Russian troops come in to calm things down, you know this won’t end well!!

Here’s the link…
https://youtu.be/wrevWi3rxPk

Interesting interview with Rick Rule. Always known for his bullish views on Uranium, but here in this 50 minute interview he picks out just one mining stock; Kazatomprom.

Also worth noting that, around a year ago, he once singled out KAP as his absolute top investment pick.

Not sure if anyone sat in on this. Aimed at the world’s largest (ie institutional) investors. From the world’s largest fund management group. On possibly the world’s most widely discussed (today) investment topic. Namely “Sustainability - the Path to Net Zero”. Featuring Larry Fink and Bill Gates.
So altogether a pretty big deal. But guess what - not one single mention of nuclear power. I kid you not. Nothing, nowt, nada.
I had to submit my question about how they saw nuclear power’s role in the drive to net zero, six bloody times. In the end my repeated questioning must have embarrassed them (you can see everyone’s questions displayed) and they were forced to respond with “Regarding nuclear power, we are evaluating this”.
So what can we learn from this woeful response? Probably, that uranium may well be the most compelling and asymmetric trade in the world today - but it’s going to take a long while yet to play out. There are an awful lot of people for whom this just doesn’t register. Unbelievable.....
And btw, KAP - I mean how can this not be the single best uranium stock to buy...?

and are!

Haha - Thanks all! Yeah I am still struggling to rekindle my interest in MTRO. I’ll keep away I think....

I am however very much in love with a couple of gold and copper mining stocks. They’ve already recouped my entire 45% peak to trough portfolio loss for me, thankfully. And still nicely set up for several multiples more.

Not cross ramping so I won’t mention their names unless anyone is interested. But frankly that whole mining sector, particularly gold and particularly the juniors is going to deliver some really huge returns from this point.

I’d say a 30% minimum allocation to the sector Is surely sensible whilst the infinite money printing press Springs into action...

Hmmm... I don’t see that as a powerful driver of the stock either way, frankly.

The old arguments from last year mainly centred around book value being 4x market cap and revenue from safety deposit boxes covering rent. Plus unique business model of expanding branch network whilst other banks were closing was seen as a major plus. And superior service standards.

Does any of that still apply...?

I lost a bundle on MTRO with the Covid crash and have since licked my wounds and moved on. But curious to see so many of the same old bods on this thread still posting.

Are you all still long? Surely this is a busted flush now?

Would genuinely love to know what the thesis is at this point...

Just loaded up another £67k worth in the last minute. Gonna stop loss that quite tightly though.....

Cheers Theo - agreed.
I’ve looked at Robbie Burns who sets a stop loss of typically 15-20% below purchase price. And I’ve also worked closely with a number of fund managers (my role was always distribution).

In my experience, most of the good ones are good at recognising they made a wrong call and cutting their losses. One that didn’t, notoriously bought heavily into Lehman’s all the way down into it collapsed which wasn’t so clever.

A multimanager friend of mine captured this phenomenon quite well in his book. He makes the additional corollary point that the good managers also know to ride the winners....
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Art-Execution-investors-millions-markets/dp/085719495X/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=lee+freeman-shor&qid=1581243948&sprefix=lee+free&sr=8-1

Cheers fellas. That’s helpful and all good - though I’m not sure I buy into the idea that Barcap will automatically mark down any banking competitor.

I’m in deep with this one, but it does make me nervous when something looks too much like a sure thing.

One thing I would say though - my advice to any and all investors is know when to bail and set that stop loss. And stay out once that is breached. I’ve learnt that much the hard way....

Anyone got any ideas / insights on why JPM and Barcap continue to rate our bank as underweight? Would just be interesting to understand how they come to that view. They’re not stupid and they surely must have a reasonably well-considered rationale if they’re putting their names to a negative forecast.

...can’t read to end without subscription...

Is that the right link? Is an article on John Lewis....