RE: KAABOOM19 Apr 2026 10:15
I think 600–800p is a reasonable valuation range for AB at this stage but that’s not to say they can’t be bought out for a lot more.
To justify a move toward 1200–1800p, the key will be EBITDA margin expansion. At present, margins sit around ~6%, and the business would need to demonstrate a clear path to 10–15%+ to support that kind of re-rating.
Encouragingly, the margin trend over the past few years has been moving in the right direction, and there’s a strong case that this improvement can continue as the business scales.
Relative to peers like Acast and PodcastOne, AB still appears somewhat undervalued, particularly given its recent expansion. The next step is execution—proving it can scale efficiently and translate growth into stronger profitability.
Importantly, the situation has now moved beyond a simple “review.” Multiple parties have conducted due diligence and are actively considering cash offers for the entire company, which is a meaningful development. Indicative bids are already coming in at a premium to the pre-offer price, and there is a defined timeline with a deadline set for June 2026.
Potential outcomes (in my view):
• 800p–1,000p: Base case takeover scenario (e.g. private equity / financial buyer)
• 1,000p–1,400p+: Upside case if a strategic buyer emerges (driven by ad-tech or media synergies)
Supporting factors:
• Scaled and growing US audience
• Continued improvement in EBITDA margins
• Increasing strategic value in a consolidating market
Overall, the opportunity is clear—but the valuation upside will ultimately depend on how convincingly AB can deliver on margin expansion and scalable growth