Member Info for LythamSlim8

No need to get the hump - copper may be breaking out of the downtrend evident since May.

My view is that the current situation is reasonably OK and with global gdp growth chugging along at 3%+ there are strong grounds for optimistism.

Huge amounts of liquidity have been created and commodities are a prime beneficiary. The current cycle is still upwards and it will be a few years (2024ish) until any meaningful slowdown occurs.

The PBOC knows their economy is hooked on liquidity injections. Their idea of a quiet week is to remain liquidity neutral but given any hint of a slowdown or crisis and they crank it up.

It is the PBOC Put lol - commodites are a banker in this scenario.

... Even better.

Just a guess but 6.5p would be pleasant. Expecting H1 profit to be up around 100% on last year in the region of $50m. So paying out 50% of that figure gives the 6.5p divi. The policy is to pay out 30-50% of profits to shareholders.

Respectable enough but bear in mind that once the debt is cleared then shareholder returns will balloon.

The future looks bright for Copper producers..

https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2021/08/06/the-american-push-into-evs-could-set-the-stage-for-full-cycle-outperformance-of-copper-producers/

Happening by the look of it..

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/chile-workers-at-worlds-biggest-copper-mine-vote-to-strike-11627832311

..to auction off the Chinese state reserves of copper..

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-state-metals-reserves-auctioned-off-in-double-quick-time-2021-07-06

Out of the gate early this morning. Should be a good week. GLA

My guess is for H1 profits up around 100% on last year - £50m.

If accurate then a whopper Divi is in order.

'numbers are mind blowing'

Worth a read..

https://amp.ft.com/content/40907aa6-354e-42f8-8d51-8cc01f0e9687

Not much doing so here's my forecast from early May again. Should be some decent shareholder returns over the next few years with Copper and Zinc at these levels:

According to the full year figures, 30% of 2021 production was hedged.

Based on current prices for Copper and Zinc (I haven't considered Lead or Silver). Without considering the hedging I reckon EBIDTA should be enhanced by around $67m (Copper) and $24m (Zinc). So an extra $91m to the bottom line at current prices.

Plenty of forecasts calling for substantially higher commodity prices so the calculations could be too conservative.

One obvious caveat is that CAML is a price taker, not a price setter but so long as prices stay high, the returns will be substantial.

Was expecting the divi on the 25th but now looks to be arriving next Monday.

The current inflationary environment gives plenty of scope for the board to be even more generous with future payouts.

Expect the next divi will be a whopper.

According to the full year figures, 30% of 2021 production was hedged.

Based on current prices for Copper and Zinc (I haven't considered Lead or Silver). Without considering the hedging I reckon EBIDTA should be enhanced by around $67m (Copper) and $24m (Zinc). So an extra $91m to the bottom line at current prices.

Plenty of forecasts calling for substantially higher commodity prices so these calculation could well be too conservative.

I hear what you are saying about the board but let's face facts - CAML is in a sweet spot with the wind in its sails.

Significant shareholder value is being created here on a daily basis. The added value will feed through to bigger divis and in turn the market cap will grow.

..are in the sweet spot:

https://mobile.twitter.com/humenm/status/1389512851195322368

I disagree - dogs don't pay out decent divis. Just a slow burner is all - probably boils down to being off the main market. CAML will get there eventually.

Check back through my posts - had similar doubts to yourself when FXPO dipped under a pound last year - now the annual payout is around half my original investment. Similar will happen here. £500m market cap could easily turn into £1bn.

Copper producers will cream it during the impending supply bottleneck. How much and for how long depends on how transitory the bottleneck is..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-risks-running-out-of-copper-and-heres-how-high-prices-may-rise-as-the-economy-reopens-bofa-warns-11620073503#https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/the-world-risks-running-out-of-copper-and-heres-how-high-prices-may-rise-as-the-economy-reopens-bofa-warns-11620073503?mod=dist_amp_social

..a mere 10 cents off the nominal all time high. Would be great if that was reflected in CAML finishing positive despite going XD.

Copper price just shy of 10 year highs and will likely get a boost from this..

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-socialist-stretches-lead-presidential-race-poll-shows-2021-04-25/

Pedro Castillo is a big fan of nationalisation. The Peruvian copper industry accounted for around 11% of global output in 2020. Can't see production increasing under this character, more likely that supply will be constrained should he succeed.

Next full moon is April 27th. Ground should be drier by then. Just a guess but this is when I expect it to kick off.

Some capex has been brought forward -

"However, it has increased its projected capex at SASA for 2021 to US$22-23m. This not only includes capex spending for 2020 that was postponed but it has also brought forward US$4-5m that it had planned on spending in 2022. Why? To exploit relatively strong commodity prices."

Only a small snippet of the article by Michael. Well worth reading the whole thing..

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/central-asia-metals-update-michael-crilly-2f