Member Info for LythamSlim8

Red Sea issues likely holding this back today - China bound shipments to take longer (and cost more) via Horn of Africa.

Read that update this morning and saw SP off, thought to myself that's the bottom.

Gas bouncing a bit on the Red Sea issues makes this more likely.

Troajan, Alex1978

Geopolitics aside,, what are you bullish on..?

Option 2: Cyprus.

EU gives Z the aid to facilitate secession but orders him to spend it on redrawing the border along the occupied zone.

Ukraine booms.

https://menafn.com/1107573865/Ukraine-War-Stakes-Are-High-For-EU-And-Ukraine-Ahead-Of-Crucial-European-Summit

Good to read this from LG. He is correct - In pursuing Mr Zhevago the authorities are sending the wrong message to foreign investors. BlackRock / JP Morgan with their reconstruction bank, will be of the same view - foreign investment will be essential.

Not quite sure what they hope to achieve other than a shake down - yet the company already pays multiple different taxes in Ukraine.

It is a very well run and efficient pellet producer. Sure a bit of cash goes missing periodically,,, but as an asset to the nation it's already in safe hands.

He's knocking on a bit now, but would be good to get Michael Abrahams back on the board..!

Looks like $200m in extra drawdown aid this evening.

Not quite what Zelensky was asking for - makes it difficult to continue the war in present format unless the EU steps up.

That article suggests 4x EBITDA

$64 X 4 X 2 = $512 annualised

Puts the $200m aid package into perspective 😎

Feels like they clocked off after the summer placing.

Not sure about the politics so couldn't comment with any authority.

As for the stalemate - suspect BlackRock & JP Morgan will have other ideas.

Those port figures help to help to gauge how much product has recently headed to China.

This is all GUESS WORK and CONJECTURE but thought it worth posting to demonstrate where earnings could head over the coming quarters.

If you take an average of 54,000t per shipment and use Maksym's figures of 5 ships leaving Pivdenny since last month - it gives 270,000t. x2 for the full quarter = 540,000t.

Using the $71 / tonne (quoted in the previous update) = $38m. That is extra revenue from these assumed exports.

EBITDA in Q3 was $64m so if all other parameters remain stable (I know, I know) that is $102m.

With net cash possibly rising to $233m.

Now of course it is too early for dividends but the growing cash pile would suggest that the time to resume payouts is approaching. Inevitably at some point the market will begin to discount the prospect.

Whilst the situation is still fraught I suspect that certain risks are reducing.

If the conflict does end then Ukraine will need to rebuild and this will necessarily come from investment.

https://www.ipe.com/news/ebrd-starts-process-to-rebuild-ukraine-calling-on-investors/10070347.article

Ukrainian authorities would send the wrong message to foreign investors if they started to confiscate assets / shares. So...

..the threats to Zhevago will remain but IMO the risk is overestimated.

It is tragic the narrative now turns towards a negotiated settlement. That scenario could have taken place at the start and the casualties avoided.

In the Guardian, granted but worth a read..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/08/ukraine-biden-strategy-us-aid-russia

Twice now i've seen FXPO bounce back from near oblivion.

Looking good for a 3rd comeback.

Nice.

Smoke capacity > 80,000t

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9222730

Another 4 ships of similar size = 400,000t give or take

x2 is 800,000t possibly for the full Q4

Peak output was > 3,000,000t / Quarter with all 4 pelletisers working

Of which 30℅ headed to China ( 900,000t )

Very impressive numbers

Even on a conservative outlook of say half the above,,,

FXPO could be heading back to FULL CAPACITY

no mean feat given the circumstances.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9222730

1,349,000t

Carl Kindinger - assume they're not options and he has bought 210k.

Good lad if so.

'appen but there a slight change in the views of some participants - particularly those in the US.

It would be ironic for the rhetoric to pivot into agreement with the Russian propaganda.

Anyone know what size of ship is used to transport to China,,, Suezmax..?

Over..?

https://www.frontnieuws.com/de-oorlog-in-oekraine-is-voorbij/

Vale CEO says iron ore market to remain tight..

Mining Giant Vale Says China Can’t Control Price of Iron Ore

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mining-giant-vale-says-china-090042231.html

Excellent news about the shipments to China.

Seymour Hersch article on Tass.

Appears to be some online debate over the veracity of the article:

https://tass.com/world/1715005

Https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-live-updates-sky-news-blog-12541713