RE: Inflation13 May 2023 20:52
War is always inflationary...and we are still throwing significant amounts of cash at the Ukraine conflict. Then you need to consider that CPI data does not include taxation. So, your NI, personal tax, your council tax, home insurance etc (all of which are still rising and IMO are going to remain elevated) - is conveniently not included in these calculations. Nor are housing costs, be it rent or mortgage, so I understand. This is why I am very suspicious of the reports we get regarding inflation. I simply do not trust it. Given every man and his dog knew high inflation was likely going to result from all that QE in 2020 (apart from the politicians and central bankers), then they claimed it was only going to be transitory...either they are criminally unqualified for the task they are employed to do, or simply dishonest. I think the latter, because IMO they always planned to inflate the out-sized debt pile down to more manageable levels, similar to what they did in the 1970s. Only problem is, we had low debt levels back then, far more positive demographics, far smaller liabilities in the pipeline (eg pensions) and a far smaller welfare state too. Oh, and generally far better energy security than we have today, nor the financially ambitious net zero agenda to fund either. Not withstanding the Arab-Israeli war, for the sake of accuracy and I hope, some balance. Probably have missed a few things, but that is a long enough list of woe for a Saturday evening! Anyway, how they get inflation back down to an average of 2% without raising interest rates much more, if at all, is beyond my brain capacity. When you consider that something like 80% (I think) of our national debt is impacted by interest rate hikes...and you take a look at our current debt to GDP ratio....IMO it is the stuff of nightmares.